DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 9 (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: PHI -14.0
Total: 45.0
Team Totals: Eagles (29.5), Texans (15.5)
Game Outlook
The undefeated Eagles travel to Houston to take on a struggling Texans team that looks destined for a top five pick in April’s NFL Draft. With a full-two TD spread, this game looks relatively clear as far as the ‘optimal’ way to play it. Philly’s offense ranks 3rd in scoring, 4th in total offensive DVOA, and 9th in yards per play. As a result, we can confidently project optimal lineups to be flooded with multiple Philly skill players. The key is here is try to identify how to play the Eagles. When games are within one score, Philly is running a perfectly balanced offense, throwing at a 51% rate. Given the 14-point spread, however, it likely makes sense to prioritize how the Eagles will play with a lead. On the year, when they’re up by 7+ points, Philly drops their pass rate to 46%. As a result of the projected game script, it definitely makes sense to prioritize the Philly rushing attack, especially considering the dream matchup against this Texans run defense that currently resembles your local high school’s JV team.
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