DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 8 (Fantasy Football)

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Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.

1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.

2. DFS Showdown Strategy PodcastA thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.

DraftKings Sportsbook Lines

Spread: BUF -8.5
Total: 43.0
Team Totals: Bills (25.5), Bucs (16.5)

Game Outlook

Week 8 kicks off on Thursday night when the 3-3 Bucs travel to Buffalo to take on a Bills team that was just upset a few days ago by the Patriots. The oddsmakers are expecting a bounce back here for the Bills at home as they’re 8.5-point favorites in a game featuring an uninspiring 42-point total.

On the year, the Bills have continued to lean into Josh Allen and the passing game, ranking sixth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) while throwing at a 61% rate (tied for fifth) when games are within one score. So long as this stays close, we should see plenty of Allen pass attempts. Buffalo has shown a willingness to take their foot off the gas this year, however, when they’ve been ahead by 7+ points, dropping their pass rate to just 51%. In lineup constructions where we project the Bills to cover the spread, it makes sense to boost guys like James Cook and/or Latavius Murray.

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