DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 8 (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: BUF -8.5
Team Totals: Bills (25.5), Bucs (16.5)
Week 8 kicks off on Thursday night when the 3-3 Bucs travel to Buffalo to take on a Bills team that was just upset a few days ago by the Patriots. The oddsmakers are expecting a bounce back here for the Bills at home as they’re 8.5-point favorites in a game featuring an uninspiring 42-point total.
On the year, the Bills have continued to lean into Josh Allen and the passing game, ranking sixth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) while throwing at a 61% rate (tied for fifth) when games are within one score. So long as this stays close, we should see plenty of Allen pass attempts. Buffalo has shown a willingness to take their foot off the gas this year, however, when they’ve been ahead by 7+ points, dropping their pass rate to just 51%. In lineup constructions where we project the Bills to cover the spread, it makes sense to boost guys like James Cook and/or Latavius Murray.