DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: DEN – 2.5
Total: 37.0
Team Totals: Broncos (19.8), Saints (17.3)
Game Outlook
In perhaps the most “Thursday Night Football” game of all time, Week 7 kicks off with the Sean Payton Bowl when the Broncos take on the Saints as 2.5-point road favorites with the total sitting at a putrid 37 points. Worth noting, this game total is the lowest of any game on the Week 7 slate, so if all goes according to plan, Al Michaels will be asleep at the wheel by the second quarter. Thank goodness for DFS…In all seriousness, injuries are going to shape the way this game plays out, so there’s a lot to dive into on this slate. Let’s get to it!
With this spread sitting at less than a field goal, we can likely use team tendencies in neutral situations to try to predict what each coaching staff will do when they have the ball. Let’s start with Payton’s Broncos, who have pretty conservative with their rookie QB thus far. After six weeks, Denver is only throwing at a 52% clip when games are within one score, and their -1.4% PROE ranks 13th. Against a Saints run defense that’s dead last in EPA per attempt over the last month, we can largely expect a balanced/run-heavy game plan when the horsies have the rock.
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