DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 13 (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: BUF -3.5
Total: 43.5
Team Totals: Bills (23.5), Patriots (20.0)
Game Outlook
Week 13 kicks off with an AFC East battle between the Bills and the Patriots featuring an uninspiring 43.5 total, which may seem low with Josh Allen in this game. However, all six of Buffalo’s road games have hit the under this season, so the total is probably fair for this divisional matchup. It is worth noting that as of Wednesday morning, there is some wind projected in this game with gusts up to 22 mph. It’s not something that’s going to overly change my projections or how I build lineups unless it gets worse – it’s something to track until kick off.
New England’s offense has struggled on the season, but they’re coming off their best game of the year on Thanksgiving against the Vikings. New England has converted just 38.7% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, ahead of only the Broncos. This spot may seem imposing against the Bills, but Buffalo’s defense isn’t what it was earlier this year. Since Week 5, the Bills rank 30th in yards allowed per drive, and they rank 25th in EPA per play since Week 8. Despite the “tough” matchup on paper, the Bills are a leaky defense right now, giving life to Pats offensive skill players.
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