DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 10 (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: DEN -9.5
Total: 42.5
Team Totals: Broncos (26.0), Raiders (16.5)
Game Outlook
It’s an AFC West showdown on Thursday night to kick off Week 10 in the NFL when the Raiders travel to Denver as 9.5-point underdogs with the total sitting at just 42.5. To set the stage as far as what the oddsmakers are thinking here – No team in the NFL has a lower implied team total in Week 10 than the Raiders, and this 42.5 total is the fourth-lowest game total on the entire Week 10 menu. Let’s start on the Raiders side here as they’re fresh off an exciting, yet also deflating Week 9 OT loss to the Jaguars. On the season, the Raiders have been a balanced offense in terms of game plan, ranking 14th in pass rate over expectation (-0.9%). However, if we zoom in on the two games that Brock Bowers was fully healthy (Weeks 1 and Week 8), the Raiders did post positive PROE rates in both of those contests. Now installed as nearly double-digit underdogs, Las Vegas probably won’t have much of a choice but to lean into the pass game here. It is worth noting that opponents facing the Broncos are averaging a 61% neutral pass rate, so I’ll personally be giving a boost to the LV pass catchers, especially in game scripts where we expect the Broncos to cover the spread.
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