DFS Pace of Play for Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
Last week’s Pace of Play article highlighted ATL-MIN as a game to get contrarian. I was fortunate to fade the Alexander Mattison chalk and built tournament lineups around Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Justin Jefferson. Winning the DFS Podcast listener contest on DraftKings with that core certainly helped! The Irv Smith Jr. punt play also worked out quite well!
It’s Week 7! Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. For every 5 seconds difference in terms of per play, a team runs 15 more plays per game. In DFS world, that’s a massive considering volume is king. In 2019, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five statistics that will affect matchups this week, five games worth stacking, and five dart throws for tournaments.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Five Stats to Know
1. The easy way to attack the Bills-Jets game is just paying up for the Buffalo DST and moving on. But an onslaught stack with Josh Allen and company could be in the cards. He likely will come in under seven percent in tournaments as this isn’t the most stackable game environment with just a 46-point total. But realize the Bills have a 29-point team implied total so those points will likely not be coming from defensive touchdowns. The Jets rank 31st in pass DVOA and 3rd in seconds per play. In other words, they can give it up through the air AND play fast especially when you’re going 3-and-out consistently. A simple Allen + Stefon Diggs stack with Jamison Crowder on the other side is an easy way to get the points while ignoring a popular Bills DST in tourneys on DraftKings.