Week 18 Playoff Motivation & Incentives (Fantasy Football)
In addition to the usual analysis that it takes to win in NFL DFS and prop betting (matchups, usage, roster percentages, etc.), understanding playoff motivation and individual player incentives can help take our Week 18 prep to the next level. We’ll take a look at the NFL playoff picture and then dive into which players might be playing for a statistical roster bonus in Week 18.
Note: There are two Saturday games this week: Panthers @ Bucs, Seahawks @ Niners
*Teams listed below are in order of current playoff seeding entering Week 18. This article will be updated as we get information throughout the week on potential playing time, so be sure to bookmark and check back this weekend!
Full Week 18 schedule: pic.twitter.com/ESX1MOaDRU
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 29, 2025
AFC
1. Denver Broncos (13-3)
Scenario: The Broncos locked up the AFC West, so they’re guaranteed a top-three seed in the AFC. However, the Jaguars and Patriots are still alive for the 1 seed, so Denver needs to win this week’s game against the Chargers to secure home-field advantage.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out. That said, we could see starters pulled late if this game gets out of hand. The Chargers are not starting Justin Herbert, moving the line to DEN -11.5 as of early Tuesday morning.
2. New England Patriots (13-3)
Scenario: The Patriots have clinched the AFC East, but they can still get the #1 seed if the Broncos lose and the Patriots beat the Dolphins this week.
Analysis: With the Chargers sitting Herbert, it’s highly unlikely the Broncos lose this game, which means the Patriots’ path to the 1 seed is quite thin. As of the writing of this article, we’re still waiting on news out of New England on how they’ll handle starters. Technically, they have something to play for, so we’re tentatively expecting starters to play usual snaps.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
Scenario: The Jags currently sit atop the AFC South, but they need to win this week to lock up the division and a top-three seed. Like New England and Denver, they’re also still alive for the 1 seed, but they need to beat the Titans this week and hope both the Broncos and Patriots lose.
Analysis: The path to the 1 seed is thin as New England is 9.5-point favorites against Miami while the Broncos are double-digit favorites against a Herbert-less Chargers team, but with the 1 seed still technically within reach and the division on the line, expect starters to play.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
Scenario: The winner of this Steelers/Ravens game will win the division and make the playoffs as the 4 seed. Loser is out.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
5. Houston Texans (11-5)
Scenario: The Texans and Jaguars are battling for the AFC South crown. Houston needs to beat the Colts this week and have the Jaguars lose to win the division and earn the 3 seed.
Analysis: Houston has already clinched a playoff spot, but with the division undecided, expect starters to go all out. DeMeco Ryans has already confirmed that CJ Stroud will start.
Update 1/4: Jane Slater is reporting that Nico Collins is not expected to play. We still expect Stroud to start, but this now adds some risk that Houston pulls starters early, depending on the scoreboard.
6. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
Scenario: The Chargers are locked into a wild card spot and are unable to move into the top-four. They’ll either be the 5, 6 or 7 seed, depending on what shakes out with Houston, Buffalo and Jacksonville.
Analysis: Technically, the Chargers can improve to the 5 seed with a win and a Texans loss. Without much to play for in terms of positioning or seeding, there’s questionable motivation levels. Jim Harbaugh confirmed that Justin Herbert will not start this week, and it would not be surprising to see them sit other starters as well. Following the announcement that Herbert won’t play, the line jumped from DEN -7.5 to DEN -11.5.
7. Buffalo Bills (11-5)
Scenario: The Bills are locked into the wild card as the Pats locked up the division in Week 17. They can improve to the 5 seed with a win and losses by Houston and Jacksonville, but they’re either the 5, 6 or 7 seed.
Analysis: Buffalo hosts the Jets this week as sizable favorites (9.5 based on current line). I suspect we’ll see starters out there to start the game, but we could see Sean McDermott pull starters early depending on the scoreboard. Worth noting, the Bills are very likely to be either the 6 or the 7 seed given that Houston is currently 10.5-point favorites against the Colts. There’s certainly questionable motivation levels here, and with Josh Allen battling foot and ankle injuries, there’s merit in considering some rest for their superhero QB. TE Dalton Kincaid (Knee) and multiple players on the defensive side of the ball are battling injury as well.
Update 1/4: Josh Allen is expected to start, but we are not projecting him to play much, if at all. He has a consecutive start streak going, so he will play, but we’re projecting Mitchell Trubisky to play the majority of the game.
9. Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
Scenario: The winner of this Steelers/Ravens game will win the division and make the playoffs as the 4 seed. Loser is out.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out. The biggest thing to monitor here is the status of Lamar Jackson, who missed Week 17 with a back injury. If he can’t go, Snoop Huntley will start again.
The following teams have been mathematically eliminated:
- Raiders – The Raiders can “lock up” the first overall pick in the draft with a loss to the Chiefs. Max motivation to lose. Kenny Pickett is expected to start, but Pete Carroll has noted that Aidan O’Connell could also see game action.
- Titans
- Jets – Breece Hall has been downgraded to out.
- Browns
- Colts – Shane Steichen announced that Riley Leonard will start.
- Dolphins – De’Von Achane (Shoulder) and Jaylen Waddle (Ribs) are not expected to play.
- Chiefs
- Bengals – Zac Taylor confirmed on Monday that Joe Burrow will start.
NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
Scenario: The Seahawks and Niners play Saturday night for the NFC West crown and the right to be the #1 seed in the NFC.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
2. Chicago Bears (11-5)
Scenario: The Bears are the NFC North champs, but they can’t improve to the 1 seed. They’ll either be the 2 or the 3 seed.
Analysis: Chicago will lock up the 2 seed with a win against Detroit. If they lose and the Eagles beat Washington, they’ll drop to the 3 seed. Expect starters to go all out. When Ben Johnson was asked about potential usage for starters this week, he said “Yeah, we’re playing to win this week.”
3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
Scenario: The Eagles are NFC East champs and are locked into either the 2 or 3 seed.
Analysis: Philly needs to beat the Commanders this week and have Chicago lose in order to move up one spot. In some ways, there’s motivation here for a better seed, but there’s also a possibility Philly rests starters or pulls them early. Worth noting, key players like RT Lane Johnson (Foot), DT Jalen Carter (Shoulders) and LB Nakobe Dean (Hamstring) are battling injuries. It’s possible we see some starters battling through nagging injuries sit this one out. Last year when the Eagles didn’t have much to play for in Week 18, Nick Sirianni sat starters despite Saquon having a chance to break the rushing record. On Monday, Sirianni told reporters they’re “still working through it” when deciding whether or not to play starters while NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo suggested that he believes the Eagles will rest “some starters.”
Update 12/31:Jeff McLane is reporting that the Eagles are expected to rest Jalen Hurts and “most starters.” We’re expecting Tanner McKee to start. Following this report, the spread moved from PHI -7.5 to PHI -3.5.
4. Carolina Panthers (8-8)
Scenario: The Panthers will win the NFC South and lock up the 4 seed with a win. They can also win the division based on tie breakers if they lose and the Falcons beat the Saints.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
5. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Scenario: The Seahawks and Niners play Saturday night for the NFC West crown and the right to be the #1 seed in the NFC.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
6. Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
Scenario: LA is locked into either the 5 seed or the 6 seed.
Analysis: We have a pretty decent sample size of Sean McVay’s tendency in Week 17/18 during his tenure in LA. He’s frequently rested starters as the Rams’ head coach, and given that there’s not much to play for here, we’re at least monitoring this situation closely. If starters do play, they could get pulled early, a scenario that played out during Puka’s rookie year when they purposefully tried to get him the rookie record for receptions. Maybe they let Stafford pad the stats a little bit to chase the MVP…either way, Sean McVay announced following Monday night’s loss that starters will play, stating, “Weed need to play. We need to play better football.” How much starters play remains to be seen…
Update 1/4: With the Seahawks locking up the 1 seed Saturday night, the Rams now have something to play for today against Arizona. If they win, they will secure the 5 seed and therefore, play the NFC South champion. On Saturday, the betting market had LAR -8.5. As of Sunday morning, it’s up to -14.5 on FanDuel, suggesting starters could play full/most snaps. This remains an uncertain situation, but does add more playing time upside to Stafford, Puka and the starters.
7. Green Bay Packers (9-6-1)
Scenario: The Packers are locked into the 7 seed and cannot improve their seeding, regardless of what happens in Week 18.
Analysis: No motivation here whatsoever. Green Bay has several key injuries that they’ve been battling late in the season. Josh Jacobs has been playing through a knee injury for over a month, Malik Willis (shoulder) and Jordan Love (concussion) are also battling injury while the offensive line has some injury issues as well. Given this situation, starters could easily rest and/or play limited snaps.
Update 1/2: Jordan Love will not start, and it looks like multiple others will sit as well. Green Bay is turning to Clayton Tune as their Week 18 starter.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
Scenario: The Bucs need to win Saturday against Carolina to have a chance to win the division. Because the Falcons beat the Rams Monday night, Tampa needs to win and have Atlanta lose. If Tampa wins and the Falcons win, Carolina gets the division based on tie breakers.
Analysis: Must win game. Expect starters to go all out.
The following teams have been mathematically eliminated:
- Giants – Still have a chance at the #1 overall pick but need Raiders to lose. Max motivation to lose.
- Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr. is battling a heel injury and unlikely to play this week.
- Commanders – Marcus Mariota is dealing with a quad and hand injury and has an “uphill battle” to play per Dan Quinn. He’s been ruled out, and Josh Johnson will start.
- Saints
- Falcons
- Cowboys – Brian Schottenheimer confirmed on Monday that Dak Prescott will start, but Todd Archer is noting that the team would “like to get a look” at Joe Milton.
- Lions – Dan Campbell said on Monday “I expect the guys that we have here to give it what they got one more time.” Worth pointing out, Amon-Ra St. Brown is battling a knee injury and listed Questionable.
- Vikings
Player Incentives & Statistical Milestones
Sam Darnold, QB, SEA
Incentive: $500,000 for 28 passing TD, $500,000 for 4,000 passing yards
Status: Needs 150 yards, 3 TD @ SF
Rico Dowdle, RB, CAR
Incentive: $1 million for 1,350 all-purpose yards, $250,000 for 8 total TD
Status: Needs 7 yards, 1 TD @ TB
Saquon Barkley, RB, PHI
Incentive: $250,000 for 1,500 all-purpose yards
Status: Needs 87 total yards vs. WAS
Tony Pollard, RB, TEN
Incentive: $250,000 for 1,100 rushing yards
Status: Needs 66 rushing yards @ JAX
Nick Chubb, RB, HOU
Incentive: $312,000 for 600 rushing yards
Status: Needs 94 yards vs. IND
Jordan Mason, RB, MIN
Incentive: $200,000 for 800 rushing yards
Status: Needs 136 rushing yards vs. GB
Kareem Hunt, RB, KC
Incentive: $25,000 for 750 scrimmage yards
Status: Needs 31 total yards @ LV
Keenan Allen, WR, LAC
Incentive: $750,000 for 80 receptions, $250,000 for 750 receiving yards, $250,000 for 6 receiving TDs
Status: Needs 6 receptions, 9 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs @ DEN
Marquise Brown, WR, KC
Incentive: $750,000 for 6 receiving TDs
Status: Needs 1 TD @ LV
Khalil Shakir, WR, BUF
Incentive: $150,000 for 80 receptions, $150,000 for 5 receiving TDs
Status: Needs 8 receptions, 1 TD vs. NYJ
Stefon Diggs, WR, NEP
Incentive: $500,000 for 1,000 receiving yards
Status: Needs 30 yards vs. MIA
Deebo Samuel, WR, WAS
Incentive: $450,000 for 800 receiving yards, $250,000 for 8 TDs
Status: Needs 93 yards, 2 TD @ PHI
Hunter Henry, TE, NEP
Incentive: $250,000 for 60 receptions
Status: Needs 5 receptions vs. MIA
Dawson Knox, TE, BUF
Incentive: $100,000 for 400 receiving yards, $100,000 for 4 receiving TD
Status: Needs 7 yards, 1 TD vs. NYJ
Comments
Incredibly helpful for a hard to structure tournament lineups for Week 8! Thanks for putting together during a holiday week:)
Excellent. Thank you.
Thanks for the write up. Very helpful!