Targets Per Route Run Report: 2026 Season Preview (Fantasy Football)

Fantasy football is basically a season-long exercise in calling your shot with incomplete information. We can all have our “hot takes,” but for a hot take to actually mean something, you have to be right every once in a while.

And those times we are right? That is what reels us back in, week after week, year after year. I think that is a big part of why we play this game. We like calling our shot and watching it hit. At least that is what keeps drawing me back in.

I like to compare the mechanics of fantasy football to gambling.

There is the scratcher-and-slot-machine type of gambler. The fun is in the thrill of winning without really contributing to the outcome. This might be your home league manager drafting based on a favorite mascot, team colors, or how handsome they think a player is.

If you are reading an article about Targets Per Route Run, I am guessing that is not you.

You are probably closer to the poker player. You like calculated decisions. You take in the information available to you. You notice when the guy who has been folding all night suddenly pushes chips into the middle. You know the size of the pot, what is left in your stack, and when the odds are, or are not, in your favor.

Fantasy football is similar, and that is where Targets Per Route Run comes in.

Targets Per Route Run

The math is fairly simple.

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Targets ÷ Routes Run = Targets Per Route Run (TPRR)

Convert that number to a percentage, and voilà, you have TPRR.

What makes TPRR useful is that it helps separate actual target earners from the cardio kings.

For example, Chris Olave and Tre Tucker both had 578 routes last year. Olave had 156 targets, giving him a TPRR of 27%. Tucker earned just 92 targets, giving him a TPRR of 15.9%. They ran the same number of routes but had a very different ability to earn targets. This is why the Ballers frequently say, “Targets are an earned stat.” Olave earned more targets on the same number of routes.

As a very loose rule of thumb, this is how you break down TPRR:

• 30%+ is truly elite TPRR
• 25-30% is excellent
• 20-25% is a good, fantasy-relevant range
• Below 20% is where you really have to look into the data more

This is not a hard and fast rule. A 19% TPRR deep threat can still be valuable, while a 25% TPRR player only running 12 routes a game is not going to help your fantasy team very much. 

TPRR tells us what a player does when he runs a route. It does not tell us how often he gets to run a route.

That is an important distinction.

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So what do you do with TPRR?

TPRR gives us a tool to measure how frequently a player earns targets when he is actually participating in the passing game. It becomes especially useful for identifying when opportunity begins to change.

Imagine a young WR who is not playing much but earns targets when he runs a route. If he starts getting more routes while keeping his TPRR, then you may have the ingredients to see a breakout before the fantasy points start adding up. On the other side of the coin, maybe a veteran receiver runs 90% of the snaps with a high number of routes run. If he does not get the football – even if he is on an excellent offense – he is not good for fantasy. *stares intently at Andrei Iosivas’ 542 routes and 10.7% TPRR*

Knowing this distinction matters.

This is often what analysts mean when they say “the underlying or advanced metrics point to a breakout.” If the box score tells you what already happened, TPRR can help explain how it happened. Sometimes a breakout game is a fluke; sometimes there are more fantasy points to be had.

One thing I personally like about TPRR is that it helps normalize for games missed.

For example, George Kittle battled injuries last season, so his raw receiving totals and total fantasy points were nowhere near Trey McBride’s. But when Kittle did play, he earned targets at the exact same rate as McBride. You would miss that if you looked at total targets, receptions, yards, and fantasy points. TPRR gives us a clearer picture.

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TPRR Is Not a Magic Bullet

TPRR does not predict the future. It is a backward-looking stat that tells us what a player has done with the routes he has run.

It does not automatically account for:

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• Changes in offensive scheme
• Injuries elsewhere on the depth chart
• QB play
• Defensive matchups
• Depth of target
• TD variance
• Future strength of schedule
• Coachspeak
• Whether a player’s role is expanding or disappearing

It can also be misleading in small sample sizes. For example, Brashard Smith led all RBs with 25 or more targets in TPRR last season. He is not Christian McCaffrey just yet.

When used well, TPRR is beautifully simple in that it is one number that summarizes what a player has done with the routes they have been given.

How to Use TPRR in 2026

This is where I think TPRR becomes really useful for fantasy managers, especially those trying to level up their game. During the offseason and draft season, it can help you compare players and find fun stat nuggets on players. TPRR becomes even more powerful as the season progresses.

When you combine Routes + TPRR, you can spot trends early and act on them before your league mates catch on.

Routes tell us how many chances a player is getting to participate in the passing game. TPRR tells us what he is doing with those chances. When both are climbing, pay attention.

The inverse is true. When both are falling, it might be time to trade away that player. There are different ways players create fantasy points.  

Lower-TPRR, higher-variance players like Jameson Williams and Matthew Golden can make their whole fantasy week with explosive plays and TDs. Meanwhile, players like Josh Downs and Wan’Dale Robinson have a high TPRR but are not as explosive.

Neither archetype is better than the other, but how you build out your roster matters. Building a team of boom-bust receivers might benefit from adding a steady target earner. If your roster is full of volume WRs who are not very explosive, maybe trade for a player of the opposite archetype.

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If this is your first time dipping your toes into “advanced analytics,” welcome! To quote one of the regulars in Discord, you are going to love it here. A lot of what you are about to see will confirm things you already know. Elite players earn targets and turn those into massive fantasy point days. The Sunday cardio kings tend not to score many fantasy points. The TPRR edge comes in when you find the players with a mismatch between their opportunity and expected fantasy production.

That is what we will be hunting for in this series for 2026. I will track TPRR weekly and highlight the trends and triggers I think can help us make better decisions before the rest of our league catches up.

Remember that none of this is about perfectly predicting what happens. No one can do that. What we are trying to do is nudge the odds a little more in our favor to catch some breakout players. Like poker, you are not going to win every hand, and you are going to have some bad beats, but if you play the odds better than your leaguemates, you improve your chances of winning a #FootClanTitle.

If you have questions or want to dig into any of these numbers, find me on the best fantasy football Discord on the planet. I am always happy to talk ball.

Without further ado, here is the 2025 TPRR for WRs and TEs with a minimum of 25 targets.