NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 5 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back to another weekly performance trends article! In this edition, we will break down what has changed since last week and what to look for going into Week 5. Let’s jump into things.
Offensive Insights
Atlanta is red hot. After opening at -0.321 and -0.473 EPA per play offensively, the Falcons have shot up to +0.332 and +0.421 the past two weeks, capped by a 45-24 dismantling of New Orleans on Monday night.
San Francisco came back to earth (slightly). A +0.120 offensive EPA showing against Denver was their worst of the season by a wide margin, and it dropped their average from +0.376 to +0.312; despite this, they still rank as the best offense in football.
New England posted the largest single-week jump in the league, going from -0.253 to +0.191 in a 29 to 26 upset of Buffalo.
Arizona slides the opposite way, falling from +0.169 to -0.250 in offensive EPA/play in a 36 to 24 loss to the Giants. That is the biggest one-week drop in football.
The Chargers are now the worst offense in football at -0.165 EPA/play, with Tampa Bay (-0.154), Miami (-0.148), Philadelphia (-0.120), and Minnesota (-0.102) rounding out the basement.
Defensive Insights
Minnesota leads the league at -0.187 EPA/play, with Seattle (-0.150), the Rams (-0.136), Las Vegas (-0.108), and Chicago (-0.084) behind them.
The worst defenses: Dallas at +0.202 EPA/play, Detroit at +0.197, New Orleans at +0.161, Miami at +0.128, and Buffalo at +0.105.
See team week-to-week trends below.
Players to Target
The following analysis refers to the positional points allowed per week graphic found below.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones, Minnesota at New Orleans. New Orleans has allowed 1.12 points per RB touch, the highest in the league and 37 percent above the 0.82 league average. No other defense has crossed 1.05. With Jordan Mason not having played since Week 1, the backfield is entirely in Jones’ hands.
Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift, Chicago at Green Bay. Green Bay sits at 0.96 points per RB touch, third-highest in football and comfortably above average. Chicago runs a true committee, with Swift at 19.8 touches per game and Monangai at 16.2 touches. Monangai is the better value given his price, but both are startable against a defense giving up this much per carry.
Avoid: Arizona (0.59), the Rams (0.60), and Minnesota (0.65) have been the three stingiest run defenses in football per touch, all roughly 25 to 30 percent below league average. Any back facing them this week is a downgrade regardless of volume.
Wide Receivers
Garrett Wilson, the Jets vs. Cleveland. Cleveland has allowed 3.39 per WR touch, second-most in the league. Wilson leads the Jets receivers clearly with 6.0 touches per game, and with Adonai Mitchell not having played since Week 2, the target concentration has only tightened.
Jaylen Waddle, Denver at the Chargers. The Chargers have allowed 3.26 per WR touch, third-most. Waddle has led the Denver receiving room and has a boom opportunity going into Week 5.
Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, Buffalo at the Rams. The Rams have allowed 3.25 per WR touch, fourth-most, which is notable because they are also the third-best defense in the league by overall EPA. Look for Coleman, especially, to continue his hot streak.
Avoid: Miami (2.28) and Seattle (2.42) have allowed the fewest points per WR touch among teams playing this week, both roughly 15 to 20 percent below average.
Tight Ends
Isaiah Likely, the Giants at Washington. Washington has allowed 3.86 points per tight end touch. The league average is 2.55, so that is 51 percent above baseline and the largest edge available at the tight end position by a wide margin. Likely has been shaky since Week 1, but has a bounce-back opportunity here.
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans vs Minnesota. Minnesota is the best defense in the league by overall EPA, but tight end is their one soft spot: 2.80 per touch, eighth-most in football and above league average. Johnson has been quietly excellent at 5.2 touches per game. Look for him to have a strong performance in Week 5.
Avoid: San Francisco (1.75) and New England (1.81) have surrendered the fewest points per TE touch in the league, roughly 30 percent below average. The Jets at 1.85 and Philadelphia at 1.98 are nearly as tough.
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston, the Giants at Washington. Washington has allowed 0.65 per dropback, third-most in the league. Winston has started the last three games and has been a winner for the Giants. While his play has been all over the place with multiple turnovers each game, the matchup makes him a good start.
Jacoby Brissett, Arizona vs. Detroit. Detroit has allowed 0.62 per dropback, fourth-most in the league. Brissett is seeing 41.8 touches per game, a ton of volume and opportunity to break out here.
Avoid: San Francisco (0.38) and Minnesota (0.38) have allowed the fewest points per dropback among teams active this week, roughly 25 percent below average.
Week 5 Matchup Spotlight
Detroit at Arizona is the game of the week for fantasy purposes. Arizona has been the most generous defense in football to receivers and QBs and the fourth-most to TEs, while Detroit owns the second-worst defense in the league. Both offenses should move the ball freely. Start your players in this matchup.
Tampa Bay at Dallas opens the week with the worst offense in the NFC facing the worst defense in football. Dallas should score freely, while Tampa Bay will have a chance to right their ship against a very weak defense.
Baltimore at Atlanta is the week’s most interesting read. Baltimore is the third-best offense in the league. Atlanta’s season-long numbers are poor, but their last two weeks have been outstanding. If you trust the recent form over the season average, this is a high-total game where offense will be booming.
Good luck in Week 5!