NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 4 (Fantasy Football)
Three weeks in, and we have an even better picture of how teams look on both sides of the ball. Let’s jump right into our analysis of how teams are trending and how this impacts fantasy football.
Offensive Insights
San Francisco is the class of the league at +0.376 per play, and they are trending up: 0.179, then 0.460, then 0.490. Nobody else is above +0.215 offensively.
Buffalo (+0.214), Baltimore (+0.190), Dallas (+0.184), Kansas City (+0.177), and Jacksonville (+0.175) form the next tier. Jacksonville’s 35-to-6 demolition of New England in Week 3 was the most lopsided result of the weekend, and continued the Jags’ offensive prowess.
At the bottom, Tampa Bay and the Chargers are tied for worst offenses at -0.192, with Atlanta (-0.154, though trending hard the other way), Pittsburgh (-0.153), and New England (-0.144) filling out the basement.
Defensive Insights
Las Vegas leads the league at -0.187, which almost nobody saw coming. Minnesota (-0.182) and Seattle (-0.172) are right there with them.
Kansas City (-0.113) and Jacksonville (-0.104) round out the top five, and both pair that with a top-six offense. These are the two most complete teams in football right now by net EPA, behind only San Francisco.
The worst defenses through three weeks: Dallas at +0.190, Miami at +0.186, Detroit at +0.166, Indianapolis at +0.153, and Arizona at +0.126. Dallas being the league’s fourth-best offense and its worst defense makes the Cowboys the most reliable source of shootouts in football.
Points Allowed Per Touch
The positional chart is now built on three games per team rather than one, which makes it far more trustworthy than the Week 2 version. Please find below a list of strong fantasy starts based on opposing defense, by position.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift: The Jets have allowed the most fantasy points per RB touch of any defense in football. Swift is handling 20.7 touches a game, making him a breakout candidate; Kyle Monangai at 11.3 touches is a viable flex in the same spot.
Aaron Jones: Miami has been the third-most generous defense to backs per touch. Jones is the clear lead at 19 touches per game.
Backs to Fade: Javonte Williams at Houston. Houston has allowed the fewest points per RB touch in the entire league, making his outlook grim for Week 4.
Wide Receivers
DeVonta Smith: Despite an overall strong defense, the Rams have been the fourth-most generous defense to receivers per touch. Smith has been the alpha receiver this season for the Eagles and should continue his prowess in Week 4.
DK Metcalf and Roman Wilson: Cleveland has allowed the second-most points per WR touch in the league. Both Steelers receivers sit at just 3.7 touches per game; however, with Pittsburgh coming off their best game of the season offensively, they have a chance to expand on this with a favorable air matchup.
Stefon Diggs: Indianapolis has allowed the third most points per touch to WRs this season, and Diggs has shown early on that he is a strong target for the Commanders, putting up three TDs already.
Receivers to Fade: KC and Seattle have been stout against receivers this season, making Raiders pass catchers and Chargers receivers rough options for Week 4.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller: Detroit has allowed the third-most points per TE touch, and Waller has quietly produced over nine half PPR points per game. Look for Waller to be a strong streaming option in Week 4.
Isaiah Likely: Arizona has been the fourth-most generous defense to tight ends. Likely looks to have another big performance similar to his Week 1 breakout against the Cardinals.
Quarterbacks
Bryce Young: Detroit has allowed the fourth-most points per touch to QBs this season. The Panthers play caller has been strong this year, throwing for seven TDs and rushing for an 8th. Young is one of the best streaming options of the week.
Daniel Jones: Despite a slow start, Jones looks to be a strong start for Week 4. Washington has allowed the second-most points per QB touch this season at 0.76. Give Jones the nod if you can.
Kyler Murray: Miami has allowed 0.74 points per touch to QBs this season, and with Kyler Murray returning to the starting lineup in Week 3, he should be settled into the offense enough to put up big numbers for Minnesota.
Week 4 Matchup Spotlight
Indianapolis at Washington is the week’s cleanest offensive environment. Washington has allowed the most fantasy points per tight end touch in the league and the second-most per QB touch, while their defense grades seventh-worst by EPA. Indianapolis has been bad at -0.067, but this is the get-right spot. Conversely, Indianapolis owns the fourth-worst defense in football and has been the fourth-most generous to RBs and third-most to receivers, so Washington’s skill players are in play too. This is the best offensive matchup on the board.
Dallas at Houston is another strong offensive matchup. Dallas is the fourth-best offense in football, and Houston has allowed the fifth-most points per WR touch and the sixth-most per QB touch. The one thing Houston does well is stop the run, having allowed the fewest points per RB touch in the league.
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle is a game to avoid. The Chargers are tied for the worst offense in football, and they draw the third-best defense, one that has been the second-stingiest matchup for receivers. Seattle’s offense is unremarkable, but they should not need much. The Chargers defense has been weak across the board this season, but you do not need much analytics to tell you to start your Seattle players.
Detroit at Carolina sets up as a smash spot. Detroit is the seventh-best offense, and Carolina has allowed the second-most points per RB touch and the second-most per TE touch. Start every Lion you own. The reverse is live too, since Detroit owns the third-worst defense in the league and has been the third-most generous to tight ends.
Atlanta at New Orleans is where the trend line matters more than the season average. Atlanta’s -0.154 season mark is dragged down entirely by two bad weeks that no longer look representative after the Green Bay explosion. New Orleans has been the sixth-most generous defense against the run. If you believe Atlanta’s Week 3 performance was real, this is a buying opportunity before the market catches up.
Find the weekly performance trend charts below.
Good luck in Week 4!