NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 3 (Fantasy Football)
After a great Week 2 in the NFL, I will be launching into another team performance trends article, taking a look at which teams have momentum leading into the coming weeks. This article will heavily reference two tables, which can be found after the analysis in the article; the first shows the average offensive and defensive EPA (expected points added) per play for each team, and the second shows the average amount of fantasy points allowed by every defense to each individual position this season.
Let’s take a look at who’s hot.
Offensive Takeaways
The Ravens, Colts, and Bills stay at the top. Each team is averaging around 0.2 EPA/play — Indianapolis has the Titans, Buffalo has the Dolphins, and Baltimore has the Lions in Week 3. Look for your Colts and Bills players to perform at the top level, while Ravens players will be more variable for fantasy.
The Jaguars continue to put up positive EPA/play. Despite another off game from Brian Thomas Jr., the Jaguars performed well offensively, especially in the cases of Travis Etienne and Trevor Lawrence. Look for a tough matchup for them, however, as they face the Texans in Week 3, who have been putting up strong defensive numbers.
The Chargers are among the top 10 teams in offensive EPA/play so far, and this performance has greatly aided WR Quentin Johnston. They face Denver in Week 3, who have allowed the fewest points per touch to WRs (1.94) in the league, and a low 0.78 points per touch to RBs. Look for a stall in this LAC performance.
The Patriots have been surprisingly solid offensively; a 0.06 EPA/play isn’t going to blow anyone away, but it goes to show there is some fantasy opportunity there. They play the Steelers next week, who have allowed high numbers to TEs and RBs, as seen in the second chart showing defensive performance against each position. Look for a potential TreVeyon Henderson breakout game and a solid Hunter Henry performance.
Defensive Takeaways
The Bears have been abysmal on defense, especially against WRs. They’ve allowed 3.9 points per touch to WRs, and face the Cowboys in Week 3. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are in for a treat! The Cowboys aren’t too shabby at stopping WRs either, allowing 3.43 points per touch, so look for Rome Odunze and DJ Moore to shine as well.
The Commanders have been terrible against TEs, allowing 3.35 points per touch so far this season. They face the Raiders in Week 3, so Brock Bowers is in for a breakout game. The Bills are also struggling to stop TEs, so if Darren Waller is good to go, he could be a viable option at TE as well.
The Giants have truly struggled to stop the run, allowing 1.12 points per touch to RBs. Is this Isiah Pacheco‘s chance to break out this season? Give him a chance in Week 3, and if he can’t figure it out against the Giants, it may be time to bench him.
The Rams have been one of the better defenses this season, putting up 0.07 EPA/play on defense, and being lock down on every position across the board. They face the Eagles in Week 3, so proceed with caution with guys like DeVonta Smith.
The Falcons have been the top-performing defense of the season, putting up 0.13 EPA/play on defense. They face the Panthers in Week 3, so not only are they a strong defensive stream, but your Carolina fantasy options are in trouble.
