Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 13
Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 13!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at every position over the last few games. As you already know, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their unique usage and offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points can help quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on a variety of factors – such as the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE)
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to ideally target players that rank highly in xFP
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics to get a complete picture of a player’s value
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your lineups
If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- In his first game back from injured reserve, Kyren Williams made an immediate impact on the Rams’ offense, totaling over 200 scrimmage yards and finishing the week as the RB1 in half-PPR scoring. From a usage standpoint, Williams was clearly the team’s top running back. He accounted for 34.4% of the team’s opportunities and 19.4% of their targets. As a result, Williams finished the week as the RB3 in Expected Fantasy Points (18.4), behind only Christian McCaffrey and Travis Etienne. It is unlikely that he will continue to average 9.3 yards per touch, especially in a tougher matchup against the Browns. However, if he once again receives close to 20 opportunities, Williams should be considered a high-end RB1 in all formats.
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