Dynasty Film Review: Week 2 (Fantasy Football)
We are back for another dynasty season, and Week 1 did not disappoint. Betz and Mike open the episode with some light trolling of Kyle for fading Christian Watson. I am personally elated (and doing a mini victory lap) with Watson’s performance as a ‘My Guy‘ who has a strong start on his path to a WR1. Mike is pantsless, but Kenneth Walker‘s fantasy points are keeping him warm. Borg brings in the focus of this week’s episode: how we should regard this high-scoring fantasy week without overreacting to extreme performances. Betz highlights a couple of examples within the “new offense” context. The underwhelming performances from teams like the Chargers and Eagles could cause panic, but Betz advises there is an adjustment period, similar to the 2025 Jaguars; some things just take time. Borg reminds us of the copious amount of tools available on the Ultimate Dashboard, including the Red Zone Report.
Weekly Rewind
Rico Dowdle & Jaylen Warren
Mike dug into the Steelers’ tape, and neither Rico Dowdle nor Jaylen Warren could establish a consistent rhythm in Week 1 due to poor offensive line play. Warren’s receiving line was inflated by a trick play, while Dowdle saw slightly higher snaps and routes overall. Mike noted that this is no longer the Mike Tomlin Steelers focused on defense and ball control. McCarthy’s Steelers had a much higher neutral pass rate. The Ballers aren’t buying a sudden ascension of the Falcons’ rush defense, and we should not avoid them based on this performance. Borg expressed disappointment in the lack of explosive plays given the increased pass rate. While both carry flex potential, Dowdle’s involvement on early downs makes him slightly more intriguing than Warren’s volatile flex role. Borg prefers Warren, but Betz points to Dowdle’s history of coming into a backfield and taking it over in Dallas and Carolina.
DK Metcalf
In the process of watching this game, Mike couldn’t help but notice the error-riddled play of Metcalf. Metcalf commanded a massive 39% first-read target share, but failed to capitalize due to drop issues and missed opportunities. Despite a frustrating Week 1 outing against Atlanta, his volume profile and Week 1 ADOT (30.3) suggest big fantasy bounce-back performances are coming soon. Betz highlights the future schedule after the Patriots, which includes the Bengals, Browns, Colts, and Bucs as potential victims and upside for Metcalf and the rest of the Steelers’ offense.
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Bucky Irving
Borg covered Bucky’s Week 1 performance, which included eight carries, seven targets, one rushing TD, and a fumble. Irving looked explosive against the Bengals, ripping off four 8+ yard runs (more than he had in 2025), including the TD. Bucky earned a career-high 25% target share, which boosts his baseline value significantly. While we were worried about Kenneth Gainwell‘s involvement, he maintained the high-value touches. Sustained fantasy upside will depend on whether he retains goal-line work once Sean Tucker returns. A minor aside in the Bucs conversation included Ted Hurst, who ran 78% of the routes (only two fewer than Egbuka and Godwin), but just did not get the targets. Keep an eye on this; Betz sees opportunity with McMillan sidelined.
Miami Dolphins
Betz was interested to see the operation of the Dolphins offense. Would they be functional for fantasy purposes? Caleb Douglas could be a diamond in the rough as he posted a five-catch, 94-yard day on an 81% route share, marking one of the strongest Week 1 debuts for a Day 2 rookie in recent history. Malik Willis offers rushing upside similar to Justin Fields, but sacks and inconsistent passing volume could limit the overall passing production. Douglas and Malik Washington offer intriguing short-term and long-term targets, while Chris Bell‘s snaps will ramp up gradually as he returns from the ACL injury. Borg projects a challenge with a potential carousel of which receiving option to select from week to week. Betz was encouraged by the pivot from rushing to passing when trailing in the second half from a fantasy perspective.
Overreactions
Christian Watson & Matthew Golden
Borg highlights this Summer’s Packers passing narrative. Betz highlighted that Green Bay played with high pace rate (second) and neutral pass rate (12th), indicating that the Packers may be more willing to lean on Jordan Love in 2026. Additionally, we saw the target tree concentrated around Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Jaden Reed, and Tucker Kraft. While Watson captured headlines with a long TD, Golden earned a higher target share and saw six red-zone routes—a massive jump over last season. Borg flipped Marshawn Lloyd for Golden to an RB-needy team, and the uptick in red-zone involvement is encouraging. Green Bay’s upcoming WR schedule (@Jets, vs Falcons, @Bucs, vs Bears, vs Cowboys, @Lions, vs Carolina) is among the easiest in the league, making their main passing options strong buys.
Eagles Offense
Under new offensive play-caller Shawn Mannion, Philadelphia struggled with protection issues (Hurts was pressured on 49% of dropbacks). Barkley was forced into heavy pass-blocking duty in the second half, severely capping his output. Betz was disappointed in the performance, though he pointed out the success of Dontayvion Wicks and Dallas Goedert. Despite increasing pre-snap motion rates, they ranked near the bottom in play-action usage (27th). These tactics are often paired to boost the offense, but the suppressed play-action usage limited the upside. The Eagles appeared comfortable sitting on a lead in the second half, which impacts the expected fantasy points for us. Mike was disappointed as well, as he was seeking a better performance from DeVonta Smith (three receptions for 53 yards). Similarly, Makai Lemon disappointed with a negative fantasy output, though Mike says not to panic.
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Established TEs
- Juwan Johnson: The result (3-54-1 on 7 targets) felt a lot better than watching the game, where most of his production came in the fourth quarter. Operating essentially as a slot wideout alongside Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele, Johnson is primed for solid fantasy volume as long as Jordyn Tyson remains out on IR. Overall, the Ballers are excited about the offense and Kellen Moore‘s operation.
- Isaiah Likely: Borg was a bedtime beneficiary of Likely’s performance on SNF. He was delighted to wake up and see that Likely saw top-tier TE target share right behind Trey McBride, establishing himself as a key weapon for Jaxson Dart in the Giants’ passing attack. Despite the history of John Harbaugh’s usage of Likely, Mike is convinced the commitment is real this season.
- Dalton Kincaid: Benefited from Joe Brady’s pass-heavy scheme (+9% neutral pass rate compared to 2025), spending over 55% of his snaps in the slot or lined up wide. Kincaid was leveraged as not-really-a-TE in 13 personnel, thus benefiting from Joe Brady’s creative play design. While all these TEs bring excitement, Kincaid gets a slight edge in full-PPR formats due to scheme and QB alignment.
Betz prefers Kincaid, but Mike struggled to pick between the lower-snap player (Kincaid) with the elite QB versus the #2 option (Likely) for an up-and-coming QB. Borg prefers Kincaid in full-PPR. Betz highlights that we need more data to truly decide between Kincaid and Likely. As for me, I am going to go Kincaid, who has a QB I can trust to execute and stay on the field. Not to mention, if he keeps up this type of utilization, he will have a lot of week-winning performances.
Another big bomb on a similar route, but this time set up with motion into an advantageous matchup on the box safety. It appears Josh Allen's eyes held the deep safety just enough to open the deep-right area of the field. pic.twitter.com/yMCXrmD2ds
— Vernon Meighan (@FFB_Vern) September 16, 2026
Rookie WRs
- Carnell Tate: Borg subjected himself to the Titans tape. Tate showed impressive burst off the line, but was severely held back by Titans QB Cam Ward and poor offensive execution against the Jets. The Ballers remain confident in Tate’s individual skill set, but express heavy skepticism toward Tennessee’s coaching and passing infrastructure. Mike feels Ward regressed back to square one after starting a slight ascent to close out 2025. Betz was optimistic about the Daboll offense, but ultimately the coaching decisions actively gave away win probability.
- KC Concepcion: He lined up in the slot on 73% of snaps, getting utilized in high-manufactured touch roles as Borg expected. The challenge is Deshaun Watson, who looks like a shell of himself.
- Denzel Boston: Boston caught a long TD while playing 90%+ of snaps, placing him in rare rookie company alongside Terry McLaurin and Emeka Egbuka. With that said, he still has the same QB problem that Concepcion has.
Week 1 Film Deep Dive
Ja’darian Price
Ja’darian Price debuted well on the season’s kickoff with 52 rushing yards on 10 attempts and two receptions for six yards. I know. It’s not like he burst onto the scene with a 19-102-2 stat line, but still, 5.2 YPA out of the gate against the sixth-ranked defense in rushing yards allowed in 2025 is pretty impressive.
Price had multiple explosive runs (10+ yards) in just those 12 total touches, an inkling of the explosiveness present on his college tape. Price earned a 70% success rate, demonstrating good vision from the start; an impressive start considering the “speed-of-the-game” challenges we hear often about rookies adjusting.
Price did not get a full load, obviously, but we did learn he can execute two of the most important skills for Outside Zone (OZ) beyond vision. On the first play of the game, the Seahawks go OZ to the right (field). Here we see good vision at the mesh point as he recognizes the defenders are +1 to the playside and the RT, RG, and center have neutral leverage at best. Price doesn’t panic; his feet don’t get stuck in the mud, and he doesn’t try to use his burst to keep running outside. Like a mature vet with good feet in phase, he makes quick, measured steps while allowing the momentum of the trenches to pass by, revealing the cutback lane. Vision? Check! Patience? Check! Change of direction? Check! Burst? Check! Cutback ability from the jump is very exciting for truthers to see.
True burst ability to the edge pairs beautifully with cutback ability in Outside Zone. Executing this against a #NE defense that ranked 6th in rush yards allowed in 2026 is exciting. Price is one we should probably buy early if non-believers are looking to sell high. pic.twitter.com/gZw3nGdUTl
— Vernon Meighan (@FFB_Vern) September 15, 2026
OZ becomes extremely explosive when you have a runner who can cutback well AND successfully burst to the edge on the short side of the field. Price provided evidence of this capability too. AJ Barner executes a good seal and climb to the LB, and Price bends around Barner’s block while accelerating. What I like most is how close he is to Barner at the apex of his cut. Many rookie RBs try to create more space between them and any bodies, but Price shows trust in the integrity of the block.
So, good rushing success rate, demonstrating highly compatible traits for the OZ running scheme, and he caught both of his targets. These are good signs for Price truthers, but this is one game, and it was not a pristine sample from a fantasy perspective. Volume is a primary concern if you were hoping to ride his production in 2026. I fully expect it to be a timeshare for the opening quarter of the season, which puts us close to Zach Charbonnet‘s return. Unless he earns more touches with his play, it is possible his touches will be capped at this distribution (45% of carries) for the season. He is off to a good start with a better YPA than George Holani (5.2 vs 3.6). From a film perspective, I would want to see him stay more square with the LOS for the early part of these OZ runs. This will put him in a better position to Bang when the opportunity presents itself.
Antonio Williams
My eyes were on the Eagles game in the afternoon slate, and Antonio Williams was a name I jotted down. When you see a guy beat Cooper DeJean cleanly twice in a game, it’s time to pay attention.
Williams only had 37.14% of the offensive snaps, but he turned that into a 4-64-1 line! The snap counts aren’t amazing, but this is a rookie working his way into an offense. Making the most of his on-field opportunities should intrigue us. Let’s take a look at how he did.
Antonio Williams all routes from his NFL debut
4/64/1 on just 10 routes… GET HIM ON THE FIELD MORE! pic.twitter.com/F9mfhB8yc6
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) September 14, 2026
In this compilation of routes, we see a little bit of savvy and some room for improvement.
- Route 1: Williams executes an excellent stem and speed to force Dejean to open his hips, followed by a veteran-like push-by move and excellent change of direction for an “almost TD”
- Route 2: No target, but Williams exhibits play strength through what was probably illegal contact by Woolen and demonstrates awareness to work upfield on the scramble drill
- Route 3: Dejean stayed with him on the crossing route
- Route 4: On the fourth route, there is a subtle stair-step where he flattens right as he closes in on Jihad Campbell, then vertical as he works his way into the Zone soft spot for a big catch
- Route 5: Locked down by Mitchell
- Route 6: Williams runs another crosser, but the timing to create traffic for the trailing DB is impressive; either he has a high spatial awareness, was coached up, or both
- Route 7: Bracketed in the shallow zone
- Route 8: He may have beat Mitchell with an outside stab step, but the ball went elsewhere
- Route 9: A miscommunication on defense results in the DBs picking each other off for an easy TD, though Matt Waldman points out a minor mental error on Williams’ part
Antonio Williams was so open he couldn’t believe it and drifted. Good catch to save his rookie gaffe. TD pic.twitter.com/TRG7xpWMke
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 14, 2026
So far, in Antonio Williams, I see a player who is:
- Demonstrating speed on the level of McLaurin
- Showing indicators of Diggs-level route-running IQ
- Exhibiting quickness and change of direction twitchier than either of them
Williams deserves an investment by the Commanders in the form of more in-game snaps. As a potential future featured part of the Washington offense, we need to keep an eye on his snap share. If it doesn’t go up in Week 2, we should all be looking at the Commanders’ coaching staff sideways.
It is too early to make decisions related to either of these rookies, but as we see signs of increased opportunity, we should be prepared to make some moves.