Dynasty Fantasy Football: 2024 Rookie QB Class Review
On the most recent Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast, Betz, and I reviewed the 2024 Rookie QB class.
I approached this review exercise like an annual dynasty-focused checkup with these questions in mind:
- What did this player accomplish as a rookie?
- What is the historical context of this player’s performance factoring in NFL Draft Capital?
- What questions emerge about their dynasty value moving forward?
These are essentially the “show notes” from our discussion from the podcast if you want to reference them later and bookmark this rookie review. For the full discussion, check out the episode.
2024 Rookie QB Class Review
Caleb Williams | Round 1 Overall 1 | CHI
Current Age: 23.1 || Rookie Drafts: QB1/1.01 in SFlex || Sept. Dynasty Startup ADP: QB8 || Redraft: QB13
Stats That Matter
17 games- 351/562 (62%) for 3541/20/6 — 81/489/0 rushing- Finished as the QB15
Erratic Play
- 68 Sacks Taken — MOST in the NFL and Tied for the 3rd Most All-Time
- 30.6% Pressure to Sack Rate → Only Will Levis was worse
- 41 Throw-Aways — MOST in NFL by a wide margin (11 more than next QB)
- 69% Catchable Target Rate — 44th out of 47 qualifying QBs
- DEAD LAST in Pass Expected Points Added among QBs
Struggled versus MAN Coverage
- 48% Completion Rate — 38th out of 41 qualifying QBs
- 42.7 Pressure-to-Sack Rate — HIGHEST in NFL
- 59% Catchable Target Rate — 40th out of 41 qualifying QBs
- 63.8% 1st Read Target Rate — 41st out of 41 qualifying QBs
Offensive Coordinator Change
- Shane Waldron (Weeks 1-10)- 6.1 YPA, 61% Comp
- Thomas Brown (Week 11 on)- 6.6 YPA, 65% Comp
The Best Parts of Caleb
- High-End “Backdoor Finishes” for fantasy: FIVE top-6 fantasy finishes
- Rushing was a nice little bonus: Averaged 4.8 rush attempts and 28.4 rushing yards per game
Historical Context
- 1.1% INT Rate → Only C.J. Stroud (1%) had a lower INT rate among 1st Round Rookie QBs since 2010
Future Dynasty Questions
- Is he a buy this off-season?
- Will he likely will fall behind other QBs after playoffs and rookie excitement?
Jayden Daniels | Round 1 Overall 2 | WAS
Current Age: 24.0 || Rookie Drafts: QB2/1.03 in SFlex || Sept. Dynasty Startup ADP: QB11 || Redraft: QB12
Stats That Matter
17 games- 331/480 (69%) for 3568/25/9 — 148/891/6 rushing- Finished as the QB5
The Historic Scramble Rate
- 75 total scrambles — Sets the ALL-TIME PFF Record
- Last 2 seasons at LSU — 4.8 per game; 1st year in WAS — 4.4
- Article: Jayden Daniels Range of Outcomes & Recent Dynasty History: “A scramble is the most valuable QB rush attempt between the 20s worth more than two times as many fantasy points as a designed run in 2023. QBs with 20+ scramble attempts averaged over 7 yards per carry last year.“
Got the Ball Out Quick
- 4th FASTEST Time to Throw according to NextGenStats
- 85.8% Adjusted Comp on throws <2.5 secs — 3rd BEST among QBs with 200+ total drop backs
Historical Context
Winning as a Rookie
- 12 Wins — Only Big Ben & Dak Prescott (13) had more as a rookies
- Tied for MOST 4th Quarter Comebacks among 1st Round Rookie QBs
The Rushing was Historic
- 7th MOST Rush Attempts (148) of ALL-TIME
- 10th Best Success Rate EVER for a QB
Future Dynasty Questions
- With the 3rd most cap space available in 2025, how do they invest in their offensive skill positions moving forward?
- Does OC Kliff Kingsbury jump at the next chance to be a head coach?
Drake Maye | Round 1 Overall 3 | NE
Current Age: 22.3 || Rookie Drafts: QB3/1.07 in SFlex || Sept. Dynasty Startup ADP: QB17 || Redraft: Undrafted
Stats That Matter
13 games- 225/338 (67%) for 2276/15/10 — 54/421/2 rushing– Finished as the QB23
The QB13 from Weeks 6-16 averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game
Limited Weapons = Limited Outcomes
- Ranked 33rd/35 in Play-Action Rate (17%) → WTH Alex Van Pelt???
- Only completed 10 total passes of 20+ Air Yards… but five went for TDs
- Struggled in Intermediate Area of Field (11-19 yards) with the 2nd worst Turnover-Worthy Play Rate (10.3%)
Historical Context
Averaged 37 rushing yards per game (in 11 starts) joining Robert Griffin III, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, and Cam Newton as the only rookie QBs with 10+ starts to hit that rushing threshold.
Among 31 qualifying rookie quarterbacks over the last 10 seasons, Jayden Daniels' 2024 performance ranked 2nd in dropback success rate.
Drake Maye's 2024 performance ranked 4th.
Statistically, two of the more impressive rookie QB showings we've seen in the last decade.
— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) January 6, 2025
Future Dynasty Questions
- What else do the Patriots need to address with this team? What direction do they go with the 4th overall pick?
- What hopes do we have for a new HC/Offensive System?
Michael Penix Jr. | Round 1 Overall 8 | ATL
Current Age: 24.7 || Rookie Drafts: QB5/2.06 in SFlex || Sept. Dynasty Startup ADP: QB23 || Redraft: Undrafted
Stats That Matter
3 Starts- 61/105 (58%) for 775/3/3 — 7/11/1 rushing- Finished as the QB45
Three Starts Weeks 16-18:
- 7.4 YPA, 9.7% P2S ratio, 9th in PFF pass grade
- Drake London in Penix Games- 41% TPRR, 39% 1st Reads
- 15.2% of Attempts were 20+ Air Yards (4th highest among QBs) including 8 “Big-Time Throws” of 20+ Air Yards (per PFF)
Historical Context
Since 2012, Patrick Mahomes is only 1st Round QB to make 1st career start LATER in a season. 60% of 1st Round QBs make their 1st start Week 4 or before.
| Year Drafted | Round | Pick | Player | Age | Team | Traded Up? | Week Started |
| 2016 | 1 | 1 | Jared Goff | 21 | LAR | Yes | 11 |
| 2018 | 1 | 32 | Lamar Jackson | 21 | BAL | Yes | 11 |
| 2014 | 1 | 22 | Johnny Manziel | 21 | CLE | Yes | 15 |
| 2024 | 1 | 8 | Michael Penix Jr. | 24 | ATL | — | 16 |
| 2017 | 1 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes | 21 | KC | Yes | 17 |
| 2020 | 1 | 26 | Jordan Love | 21 | GB | Yes | — |
| 2024 | 1 | 10 | J.J. McCarthy | 21 | MIN | Yes | — |
Future Dynasty Questions
Is his value being artificially inflated this off-season after Week 18’s monster game?
Michael Vick with his first rushing TD since the 2010s
*wipes eyes*
By god that is actually Michael Penix Jr pic.twitter.com/xisH2OTtG6
— Steven Padillas (@Falcons_Pad) January 5, 2025
Bo Nix | Round 1 Overall 12 | DEN
Current Age: 24.8 || Rookie Drafts: QB4/2.01 in SFlex || Sept. Dynasty Startup ADP: QB19 || Redraft: QB23
Stats That Matter
17 games- 376/567 (66%) for 3775/29/12 — 92/430/4 rushing- Finished as the QB10
Took a Minute and Then He Took Off
- From Week 5 on, he was the QB6 averaging 21.9 fantasy points per game
- Highest Completion % inside the 10 yard line (71%) in the NFL
Intermediate Area Issues
- 11-19 yard throws… is this a personnel thing?
- Only 18% of his attempts; Only Anthony Richardson graded out worse in this area among QBs with 10+ starts
- ZERO “Big-Time Throws” per PFF in this area on 101 attempts
Other Areas to Improve
- Depth of Target — 62% of targets were <10 yards
- Tied for MOST balls batted down in NFL (Geno)
- 4th HIGHEST Check Down Rate (13%) among QBs
- 32nd/35 qualifying QBs in CPOE (-2.4%)… worse than Will Levis
Historical Context
- 29 passing TDs on the season — 2nd MOST ever for a rookie QB
- Denver is in the playoffs for the 1st time since 2015
Future Dynasty Questions
- Does he feel more like a safe high-end QB2 than locked-in QB1?
- How will they outfit him with more weapons this off-season?
Spencer Rattler | Round 5 Overall 150 | NO
Current Age: 24.3 || Rookie Drafts: QB6/3.11 in SFlex || Sept. Dynasty Startup ADP: QB36 || Redraft: Undrafted
Stats That Matter
7 games- 130/228 (57%) for 1317/4/5 — 18/146/0 rushing- Finished as the QB42
Among 47 QBs with 100+ dropbacks this year:
- 45th in Completion Rate
- 45th in Passer Rating
- 44th in Fantasy Points per Drop back
- 44th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (accounts for yards lost via sacks)
Historical Context
- Among 148 rookie QBs with 6+ starts, he ranks 141st in TD rate (1.8%) and 132nd in Yards per Completion.
- His 9.6 fantasy points per game rank 36th out of 41 rookie QBs with 6+ starts over the last decade.
Future Dynasty Questions
- Does this guy start another game in the NFL? (Whispers: Likely no)