Pace of Play: Matchups & Stacks for Week 3 (Fantasy Football)
On to Week 3!
Every Monday I write a Just the Stats article to give you an onslaught of usage stats, scheme changes, and oddities from the previous week of the NFL. The goal is to give you a rapid fire unfiltered look at how we digest a Sunday’s-worth of action and try to start deciphering what is valuable and what is not. That is a great starting place if you need a refresher on last week’s action before diving into this pace download.
The term “pace of play” is an all-encompassing way of highlighting the game flow, specific intra-game matchups, and considerable outcomes for how an NFL game might play out. We have one-game to consider but a myriad of possibilities of what could occur. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments for the DFS main slate (Sunday early and afternoon games) factoring in their pace metrics and stacks to consider for DFS tournaments.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 3, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on neutral pace, pass rate over expectation (PROE), and EPA ranks and factor that for a final “GPS score”. For EPA, we will look at rank per-drop back and per-rush attempt for both offense and defense.
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download Pace of Play- Week 3.
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
We’ve played this chorus over and over again but games in Jerry’s World show out! Since the beginning of 2025, Dallas home games have averaged 59.8 combined points with 7-of-9 hitting the over. The Cowboys lean pass-heavy ranking #1 in pass rate over expectation (12.3%) but the play volume looks way lower thanks to an outlier Week 1 second half against the Giants. Despite Baltimore’s superior per-play efficiency, Dallas is running hot converting 68% of third downs while Baltimore sits at just 39%. This Baltimore offense is operating differently than what we’ve seen in the past. Despite not having Zay Flowers and Ja’Kobi Lane last week, the Ravens actually ran more 11-personnel and now sit 9th in pass rate over expectation through two weeks after being 26th and 31st the past two seasons.
Another week and another opportunity to jump onto Dak stacks. He was awesome against the Commanders last week completing 17-of-18 passes for 178 yards and 4 TDs from a ‘clean pocket’ and showcasing real chemistry with CeeDee Lamb. The Ravens secondary is allowing the 5th highest target share (36.7%) to opposing slot pass-catchers given credence to another Lamb week as George Pickens remains stubbornly utilized as an outside-only guy. The offense rarely uses multiple-TE sets (19% last week) making the target competition fairly straight-forward. Jake Ferguson remains a red zone threat-only so while two TDs last week was tempting, I would rather add slot WR Ryan Flournoy in the mix. Javonte Williams as a runner has been a dumpster fire averaging 2.96 yards per carry. In fact, 50% of Javonte’s runs so far have gone for 2 or fewer yards but some of that is due to the Dallas offensive line. Dallas ranks dead last in yards before contact suffering with Pro Bowl guard Tyler Smith still on injured reserve. Javonte will be Henry leverage only for me or a wipeout pick if you think this game hits the under and he ends up falling into the end zone twice.
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