NFL Pace of Play & DFS Stacks for Week 6 (Fantasy Football)
Andy and Jason discussed Pace of Play on Monday’s Ready to Roll segment. If you are a DFS Pass subscriber, you’ve been privy to this type of information all year long already.
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics and stacks to consider for tournaments.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 6, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE), and no-huddle rate from the 1st three weeks, and factor that for a final GPS score. As I mentioned at the beginning of the season, no-huddle rate had one of the strongest correlation coefficients year-to-year.
Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens
In terms of real NFL matchups, this one is oozing with potential and narratives and all the things we love about this sport. CBS “protected” the game as it was potentially going to be flexed into primetime with Lamar Jackson facing off against Jayden Daniels. The efficiency for both offenses is off-the-charts begging the question if the Commanders can continue to run pure. This team ranks #1 in No-Huddle Rate but the ranking doesn’t do it justice. This is a Kliff Kingsbury staple as 52% of their snaps are absurd! It is a top-5 rate over the last six years. There is some great research done showing that offensive efficiency decreases as the play clock clicks down. Part of that is the defense anticipating the snap and being able to create a better pass rush and have better preparedness.
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