NFL DFS First Look Salaries & Matchups for Week 9 (Fantasy Football)
On Tuesday, Betz and myself share some of these insights on the Fantasy Footballers DFS Podcast if you want further commentary on some of the salary standouts.
Every week the First Look article gives you a taste of the slate and some of the more intriguing salaries that DraftKings and FanDuel release. The goal is to identify early-week cash game considerations, as well as potential tournament plays, before we piece together the stacking options.
Check back on Thursday when Matthew Betz and myself share our official DraftKings and FanDuel picks for cash and GPPs exclusively in the DFS Pass.
Here are the games for this week’s main slate* including team-implied totals (TIP) for each matchup.
These lines are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of time of publishing.
At first glance, here are a couple of things to note:
- Whoa mama! With six teams on bye and currently only two games scheduled for the afternoon slate, the main slate in Week 9 is one of a kind. It’s the smallest slate we’ve dealt with in 2022.
- There are three games in that 50-point range we look for. But it is worth noting all three of those games have road favorites.
- The Bills have the 2nd highest team-implied total of the season by only… themselves from Week 4 (30.5) against Pittsburgh. They took care of business then but in games with a double-digit favorite this far in 2022, only four of 11 games have hit their over. In other words, onslaught builds without a bring-back have been the preferred option in these environments.
|Week||Team||Date||Spread||Opp||Result||vs. Line||Over/Under||OU Result|
|2||DEN||2022-09-18||-10||HOU||W 16-9||did not cover||45.5||under|
|2||LAR||2022-09-18||-10||ATL||W 31-27||did not cover||46||over|
|5||TAM||2022-10-09||-10||ATL||W 21-15||did not cover||46.5||under|
|7||TAM||2022-10-23||-13||CAR||L 3-21||did not cover||39.5||under|
|8||BUF||2022-10-30||-10.5||GB||W 27-17||did not cover||47||under|
- On Bye: CLE, DAL, DEN, NYG, PIT, SF
- Off Main Slate: PHI, HOU, TEN, KC, BAL, NO
Count ya blessings! We get Josh Allen ($8500-DK, $9300-FD) back on the main slate and he’s clearly above all other options this week. The question will be what RB values open up that allow the field to comfortably pay up for the QB1.
- Kyler Murray ($7400) and Geno Smith ($5800) once again face off but last time was a bit of a downer as they combined for zero passing TDs in that Week 7 slogfest that ended 19-9. The Seahawks defense looks elite over the last month so consider that game hitting the under.
- The Vikings sit at 6-1 and while Kirk Cousins ($6200) hasn’t been lights out for DFS, it’s nice to see this time continuing to prefer throwing the ball at a high rate. Coming off a bye week with the addition of T.J. Hockenson, Cousins should be a tournament play worth pursuing against the Commanders.
Week 8 pass rate over expectation leaders:
We truly are seeing a new era of Vikings football pic.twitter.com/T45jKU1545
— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) November 1, 2022
- It’s wild to see a matchup between Matthew Stafford ($5600) and Tom Brady ($6000) with both teams sub-.500 and a total under 43 points. Both present as interesting double-stacking options knowing these teams don’t run the ball at all.
- Justin Fields ($5300) is an early favorite to show up in optimal builds in Week 9. Check out the last three weeks: QB8, 5, 5. The matchup against Miami and his relatively safe floor averaging 9.5 rush attempts and 53 rushing yards per game will make him a solid cheap option.