NFL DFS First Look Salaries & Matchups for Week 4 (Fantasy Football)
On Tuesday, Betz and myself share some of these insights on the Fantasy Footballers DFS Podcast if you want further commentary on some of the salary standouts.
Every week the First Look article gives you a taste of the slate and some of the more intriguing salaries that DraftKings and FanDuel release. The goal is to identify early-week cash game considerations, as well as potential tournament plays, before we piece together the stacking options.
Here are the games for this week’s main slate* including team implied totals (TIP) for each matchup.
These lines are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of time of publishing.
At first glance, here are a couple of things to note:
- This slate is minus one with an early game (MIN/NO) in London.
- The top game on the slate (BUF/BAL) will likely be bet up. Right now it does not even compare with any other game in total, popularity, and high-end options.
- There are some absolute gross games with five games under 43 total points. Instead of forcing game stacks, be willing to get different this week with one-offs from these games or stacking without a bring-back.
The QBs on this slate aren’t inspiring besides the elites. The QBs with the juiciest matchups are low-volume offenses making this a pay-up or total bottom-of-the-barrel situation.
- We have a battle for the ages this week: Josh Allen ($8400) vs. Lamar Jackson ($8300), which will surely be the most popular game of the week. Allen’s passing volume is insane but so is a QB in Lamar who has 10 passing TDs, 243 rushing yards, and another two TDs on the ground.
- The Lions surprisingly opened as the highest team implied total on the slate which makes Jared Goff a cash consideration at $5,900. Through three weeks, he’s scored 16.5, 26.04, & 14.88 DK points. Goff has seven TD passes through three games… five of those inside the red zone. The D’Andre Swift & Amon-Ra St. Brown injury news will likely sway this game to move down in total.
- I want to point out how Russell Wilson is overpriced ($6700) compared to what he’s accomplished. In the same game, Derek Carr ($5800) is palatable but I never like stacking Carr in tournaments. Since the beginning of 2021, we haven’t seen a 3-TD passing game from him.
- Marcus Mariota ($5600) is currently the QB13 through three weeks. He’s averaging 8 rush attempts per game and over 30 yards giving a nice floor in cash. Cleveland allowing 20+ fantasy points per game to QBs including a QB6 finish from Joe Flacco & rushing TDs to Baker Mayfield & Mitchell Trubisky.
- I need to bring up Justin Fields ($5300) as a potential cash game paydown option. It’s early but he’s a points-per-dollar value. The passing volume in Chicago is nothing but atrocious so far. However, they are 2-1 which is all head coach Matt Eberflus cares about.