NFL DFS First Look Pricing for Conference Championships (Fantasy Football)
Hopefully, your heart rate recovered from a weekend of exciting playoff football.
Seriously, watching BUF-KC, I had to explain to my wife that this type of back and forth is exhilarating and painful for DFS. Someone in the money quickly can be trounced especially if you didn’t have Gabriel Davis in your lineup like Betz…
Been grinding incredibly hard this year. Thankful to book a big W on the best weekend of football all year 🙏🏻 pic.twitter.com/h2dBmu5IZH
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) January 24, 2022
With only two games on the slate, buckle up DFSers. Every decision needs to be conscious.
A couple of simple overarching tips:
- If you’re saying “YES” to someone, you are logically saying “NO” to someone else at that spot. Consider pivots.
- Because the “high-flying” game is in the earlier window, it will be interesting to identify price pivots for late swap. You have to assume everyone will be overweight on KC-CIN so finding avenues for it to fail is on the mind of the contrarian player.
Every week the First Look article gives you a taste of the slate and some of the more intriguing salaries that DraftKings and FanDuel release. The goal is to identify early week cash game considerations as well as potential tournament plays before we piece together the stacking options.
- It’s clear this week that stacking with Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow is going to take up the majority of lineups. With a total approaching 55, it’s not hard to see why. With only four QBs to choose from, it wouldn’t surprise me if these two were 80+ percent in cash and in GPPs, upwards of 65-70+ percent rostered. The key is your roster construction and guessing the appropriate pass-catchers right.
- Matthew Stafford was lights out in the first half against the Buccaneers and someone I was high on last week. I’m more interested on DraftKings where the 300-yard bonus at least lets him compete with Mahomes and Burrow’s ceilings.
- On FanDuel, you aren’t getting any sort of discount with Stafford. But Jimmy G is buried at $6,200 which is odd for a site like FanDuel which bunches QB salaries close together. Garoppolo did have as many 300-yard passing games (5) as Patrick Mahomes during the regular season so let’s not completely bury him.