NFL DFS First Look at Salaries & Matchups for Week 6 (Fantasy Football)
On Tuesday, Betz and myself share some of these insights on the Fantasy Footballers DFS Podcast if you want further commentary on some of the salary standouts.
Every week the First Look article gives you a taste of the slate and some of the more intriguing salaries that DraftKings and FanDuel release. The goal is to identify early-week cash game considerations, as well as potential tournament plays, before we piece together the stacking options.
Here are the games for this week’s main slate* including team-implied totals (TIP) for each matchup.
These lines are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of time of publishing.
At first glance, here are a couple of things to note:
- We have our first bye week with four teams off the slate: Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, & Tennessee Titans. The pool of cash viable options normally shrink with a bye but the teams on bye have a combined six wins.
- The BUF/KC game started and is now sitting at 54. Beyond the post-season theatrics from 2021 we get to see on display for an encore, we love these teams because they rank No. 1 & 2 in pass rate over expectation.
- Over than the ARI/SEA game, everything else is below 45 points this week. Finding value amongst those early games is going to be key with so much of the roster percentage on the afternoon portion. I’m guessing that the QBs (Allen, Mahomes, Kyler & Geno) combine for 85+ percent of the roster percentage in cash.
- Josh Allen ($8200) and Patrick Mahomes ($8000) are going to steal the show this week. This is the first time Mahomes is a home dog in his entire career. Fade at your own risk with a game sitting at 54. He’s played in 11 regular season games in Arrowhead with a total of 54 or more with only five hitting the over so far.
|Team||Date||Spread||Over/Under||Opp||Result||vs. Line||Over/Under||OU Result|
|KC||2021-10-10||-2.5||56.5||BUF||L 20-38||did not cover||56.5||over|
|KC||2019-10-13||-3.5||54.5||HOU||L 24-31||did not cover||54.5||over|
|KC||2018-12-13||-3.5||54||LAC||L 28-29||did not cover||54||over|
|KC||2022-09-15||-4||54||LAC||W 27-24||did not cover||54||under|
|KC||2021-09-12||-5.5||54.5||CLE||W 33-29||did not cover||54.5||over|
|KC||2021-09-26||-7||54.5||LAC||L 24-30||did not cover||54.5||under|
|KC||2019-10-06||-10.5||55.5||IND||L 13-19||did not cover||55.5||under|
|KC||2020-12-27||-11||54||ATL||W 17-14||did not cover||54||under|
|KC||2020-10-11||-11||54.5||LVR||L 32-40||did not cover||54.5||over|
- If you want to get different, I love the QBs in this ARI/SEA game. Kyler Murray ($7300) is underpriced and the Seahawks rank 31st in pass DVOA. At this point, you have to ignore any other preconceived notions you might have about Geno Smith ($5700) and the Seahawks. Per NBA Jam rules, he’s officially on fire as the QB7, QB2, and QB4. Arizona has allowed the 8th MOST fantasy pts to the QB position.
- The London game was a major disappointment, especially in the 2nd half. But Aaron Rodgers ($6100) usually responds well after losses. As a 7-point home favorite against the Jets, consider him in tournaments. He’s been lights out in the red zone completing 76% of his passes, for eight TDs in five games.