NFL DFS First Look at Salaries & Matchups for Week 3 (Fantasy Football)

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It’s time to turn the page and look ahead to Week 3!

Every week the First Look article gives you a taste of the slate and some of the more intriguing salaries that DraftKings and FanDuel release. The goal is to identify early-week cash game considerations, as well as potential tournament plays before we piece together the stacking options. On Tuesdays, I share some of these insights on the Fantasy Footballers DFS Podcast if you want further commentary on some of the salary standouts.

Check back later in the week when Matthew Betz and I share our official DraftKings and FanDuel picks for cash and GPPs exclusively in the DFS Pass.

Here are the games for this week’s main slate* including team-implied totals (TIP) for each matchup.

Overview

For newcomers, the main slate for DFS includes the Sunday early (1:00 EST) and afternoon games (4:25 EST). At first glance, here are a couple of things to note:

  • Not again! We have 2(!) Monday Night Football games again this week thus shrinking the main slate from a normal 13 games to 12. Oh, and you read those times correctly. The MNF games will overlap.
  • With one game over the 50-point threshold, you know LAC/MIN is going to carry a ton of roster percentage given the plethora of options, the high pass rate, and the absolute receiving studs.
  • The biggest difference when comparing this slate to the previous two weeks is the heavy favorites: KC & DAL. We refer to these often as “onslaught stacks” where you lean into large team-implied totals and not necessarily think of this as a full-on game stack. Do not lock yourself into a bring-back.
  • RBs are few and far between on this slate. Seriously, you might be able to identify a couple of early plays but it gets thin quickly.

Quarterbacks

DraftKings

  • Spending up for Patrick Mahomes ($8300) is currently near the top of my list this week. As a 13-point home favorite, the Chiefs should take care of business against the Bears with the highest team-implied total (30.5) of the week.
  • Don’t look now but Kirk Cousins ($6900) is the QB1 for fantasy. The volume is all we care about as the Vikings rank 2nd in pass rate over expectation, behind only the Chiefs. His opponent (LAC) ranks 28th in EPA per pass attempt allowed.
  • Jared Goff ($6500) did his thing at home last week and now faces the Falcons at Ford Field again. If Amon-Ra St. Brown truly does sit out with a turf toe injury, it might be hard to go back to Goff.
  • I thought we were going to be doomed with Geno Smith ($5700) but the Seahawks had an impressive OT victory in Detroit where he came through for fantasy. After two weeks, the Seahawks rank 4th in PROE which feels more like their 2022 selves.
  • I get it if C.J. Stroud ($5300) carries some interest this week with that cheap of a price tag and the fact he leads the NFL in total dropbacks. In fact, his 109 is tied for the 3rd most over the last decade for any QB.

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