NFL DFS First Look at Salaries & Matchups for Week 16 (Fantasy Football)
On Tuesday, Betz and myself share some of these insights on the Fantasy Footballers DFS Podcast if you want further commentary on some of the salary standouts.
Every week the First Look article gives you a taste of the slate and some of the more intriguing salaries that DraftKings and FanDuel release. The goal is to identify early-week cash game considerations, as well as potential tournament plays, before we piece together the stacking options.
Here are the games for this week’s main slate* including team-implied totals (TIP) for each matchup.
These lines are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of time of publishing.
At first glance, here are a couple of things to note:
- We have a 10-game slate once again on Saturday* which is a Christmas Eve special. It should not be shocking to see fewer people playing DFS this week. Just a public service announcement, there is zero shame in NOT playing DFS this week. I plan on going lighter on my overall bankroll and time spent this weekend to be with my kiddos. They’re only 6 & 3 once!
- Woof. The totals are all down. Since the lines opened, we’ve seen almost every game (except CIN/NE) went down in total points. There seem to be two games in a tier of their own this week (SEA @ KC & NYG @ MIN) that will be the most popular.
- If you’re planning on going to a game on Christmas Eve, I don’t envy you. Weather can be overblown so keep this in mind before you completely rule out these games. Offenses and defenses both feel like so don’t be dogmatic.
The current estimates for the "feels like" temperature at kickoff of some of the outdoor games this Saturday:
– Bills at Bears: -11°
– Seahawks at Chiefs: -6°
– Saints at Browns: -9°
– Texans at Titans: 5°
– Falcons at Ravens: 7°
– Raiders at Steelers: -4°
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 20, 2022
- Can we talk about that NO @ CLE game? The line opened at 34.5 and it’s dropped to the lowest line over the last decade. Oddly enough, two of the three lowest games also were also played at Cleveland.
|Team||Date||Week||Opp||Result||Spread||vs. Line||O/U||OU Result|
|PIT||2012-11-25||12||@ CLE||L 14-20||-2||did not cover||33.5||over|
|PIT||2012-01-01||17||@ CLE||W 13-9||-7||did not cover||33||under|
- Off Main Slate: JAX @ NYJ, GB @ MIA, DEN @ LAR, TB @ ARI & LAC @ IND
- Justin Fields ($7500) is on another planet when it comes to big plays. The Bears might be 3-11 but he singlehandedly can break a slate. The roster percentage breakdown will be interesting playing in the same game as Josh Allen as an 8.5-point underdog.
- Kirk Cousins ($6300) at home needs to be on your radar. He’s averaging 18.9 fantasy points per contest there and if you take out their Week 11 dud against Dallas, that average jumps to 21.2 points per game. The Vikings have the 4th highest team-implied total on the slate.
- Geno Smith ($5800) will be without Tyler Lockett but in the highest over/under of the week, he looks like an affordable cash option.
- The Giants currently sit as the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoff picture and their matchup on the road against the Vikings will be one to pay attention to. Daniel Jones ($5600) provides some type of floor averaging 7.5 rushing attempts and 42 yards per game on the ground. Minnesota has allowed the most 1st downs via the pass, the 2nd highest yards per attempt (7.5), and the 2nd most total passing yards.
- Yes, Gardner Minshew ($4800) is in play at this salary. 15+ pts is more than on the table. In two spot starts last year, he threw two TDs in each scoring 18.8 and 14.4 DK points.