NFL DFS First Look at Salaries & Matchups for Week 14 (Fantasy Football)
Every week the First Look article gives you a taste of the slate and some of the more intriguing salaries that DraftKings and FanDuel release. The goal is to identify early-week cash game considerations, as well as potential tournament plays before we piece together the stacking options. On Tuesdays, I share some of these insights on the Fantasy Footballers DFS & Betting Podcast if you want further commentary on some of the salary standouts.
Check back later in the week when Matthew Betz and I share our official DraftKings and FanDuel picks for cash and GPPs exclusively in the DFS Pass.
Here are the games for this week’s main slate* including team-implied totals (TIP) for each matchup.
Overview
For newcomers, the main slate for DFS includes the Sunday early (1:00 EST) and afternoon games (4:25 EST). At first glance, here are a couple of things to note:
- Off the Main Slate: NE, PIT, PHI, DAL, TEN, MIA, GB, NYG
- Bye Week Teams: ARI, WAS
- There was a lot of line movement over the last two days with several games bet down due to weather concerns or injuries. The early slate of games for DFS looks abysmal with the Rams/Ravens currently sporting the “highest” over/under at 41. Woof.
- The afternoon games are going to come with by far the highest roster percentages with so much condensed in the BUF/KC matchup and likely 49ers pieces everywhere. Circle that afternoon slate because late swap will be a primary weapon for anyone who is willing to assess their lineups.
Quarterbacks
- Josh Allen ($8300) and Patrick Mahomes ($7900) are the most expensive QBs on the slate but this ain’t the BUF/KC matchup you once knew. In fact, Chiefs’ games have hit the over just four times this year as their defense is allowing the 3rd fewest points per game (17.3) in the NFL. Both are intriguing tournament options but with the savings paying down at this position, they aren’t smash cash options.
- Lamar Jackson ($7700) might fall through the cracks this week after the Ravens were on bye last week. His ceiling games always feel elusive with just three total games this year with more than 25+ DK points. It is worth noting the LAR/BAL game opened up with a total of 44 and now it’s bet all the way down to 41.
- It’s Brock Purdy‘s world and as the current favorite for MVP, we need to recognize that DFS pricing still hasn’t caught up to how awesome he’s been. At just $6500, what is DraftKings doing? He has the 2nd highest yards per attempt (9.6) of all time and the Seahawks are a team they just put up 31 points against on Thanksgiving.
- Russell Wilson ($5800) remains in the salary range where you can squint your eyes and see a path for him in cash. The volume never quite is there but he’s been a top-12 QB in 3 of his last four games and the Chargers rank 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs
- Jake Browning ($5200) looked pretty good on Monday night football completing 32-of-37 of his passes (87%) and the Colts rank 24th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs. Buying into IND/CIN is saying this game hits the over as Indy games this year have averaged 49.7 combined points per game.
- Desmond Ridder ($5000) is a name you probably aren’t comfortable clicking the button for. I get it. He was the QB in two Milly Maker-winning lineups this year and the matchup at home says he at least needs to be on your radar. He’s averaging 16+ fantasy points per game at home and the Buccaneers are 29th in passing yards allowed and 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing QBs.
- If you are curious about which cheap QBs you can stack this week, might I interest you in Joe Flacco ($4700)? He had 44 pass attempts last week and the Jaguars are 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs over the last five weeks.
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