NFL DFS First Look at DraftKings Salaries for Week 5 (Fantasy Football)
Every week the First Look article gives you a taste of the slate and some of the more intriguing salaries that DraftKings and FanDuel release. The goal is to identify early-week cash game considerations, as well as potential tournament plays before we piece together the stacking options. On Tuesdays, I share some of these insights on the Fantasy Footballers DFS & Betting Podcast if you want further commentary on some of the salary standouts.
Check back later in the week when Matthew Betz and I share our official DraftKings and FanDuel picks for cash and GPPs exclusively in the DFS Pass.
Here are the games for this week’s main slate* including team-implied totals (TIP) for each matchup.
Overview
For newcomers, the main slate for DFS includes the Sunday early (1:00 EST) and afternoon games (4:25 EST). At first glance, here are a couple of things to note:
- Off the Main Slate: TB, ATL, NYJ, MIN, DAL, PIT, NO, KC
- Bye Week Teams: PHI, DET, LAC, TEN
- Well, well, well… look what we have here. With the bye weeks now being introduced and a London game, Week 5 gives us a condensed slate to work from. With only 10 total games, expect the chalk to condense in cash environments.
- We do have a couple of games that opened above 50 that the field will gravitate towards. Expect BAL/CIN and ARI/SF to garner a ton of roster percentage.
- The BAL/CIN game is now sitting at 51. I wanted to take a look back at how the rivalry fared since Lamar became the team’s starting QB.
| Date | Matchup | BAL | CIN |
Combined Pts
|
||
| 2018-11-18 | BAL | vs. | CIN | 24 | 21 | 45 |
| 2019-10-13 | BAL | vs. | CIN | 23 | 17 | 40 |
| 2019-11-10 | BAL | @ | CIN | 49 | 13 | 62 |
| 2020-10-11 | BAL | vs. | CIN | 27 | 3 | 30 |
| 2021-01-03 | BAL | @ | CIN | 38 | 3 | 41 |
| 2021-10-24 | BAL | vs. | CIN | 17 | 41 | 58 |
| 2022-10-09 | BAL | vs. | CIN | 19 | 17 | 36 |
| 2023-09-17 | BAL | @ | CIN | 27 | 24 | 51 |
| 2023-11-16 | BAL | vs. | CIN | 34 | 20 | 54 |
Quarterbacks
- Josh Allen ($7700) and the Bills laid a dud on Sunday night but he’s currently operating on the green light/red light fantasy philosophy. The BUF/HOU certainly should have a ton of fireworks and it’s worth noting the Texans are allowing a league-high 0.87 fantasy points per dropback when they are employing 2-high safety looks. Allen and the Bills ranked 2nd in FP/DB against those looks in 2023.
- Lamar Jackson ($7500) has averaged 22.5 DK points versus the Bengals in his career and with the 2nd highest team implied total on the slate, he should be popular. The Ravens have the 3rd lowest pass rate so volume is the real concern.
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