NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks: Week 4 (Fantasy Football)
Updated: 10/2 12:00 est
With so many injuries, I will update this throughout the weekend as news changes These are upside plays for large-field GPPs, not a complete player pool. Strong tournament lineups often pair popular cash plays with lower-rostered leverage. Use Betz’s Cash Plays (here) and DFS Rankings (here) alongside these recommendations to construct solid GPP lineups.
Note: Plays are listed by salary, not preference.
For pOwn, this is from my personal weekly projections sheet.
Quarterback
Josh Allen | $7,700 | vs NE
BUF carries a 27.5-point implied total, and the offense ranks second in both EPA/play and EPA/dropback while leading the league in explosive-play rate. NE has been much softer against the run, which still works for Allen because his rushing gives him access to that weakness without needing a huge passing day. The matchup has been difficult for QBs on paper, but Allen’s multi-TD ceiling and BUF’s scoring environment keep him firmly in the GPP pool.
Projection: 24.27 DK points at 8.33% pOwn, with a 34-point ceiling
Joe Burrow | $6,800 | vs JAX
The 51.5-point total immediately puts Burrow on the tournament radar, especially with CIN leaning heavily on the passing game. JAX has limited QB production through three weeks, but it has been vulnerable to explosive plays, giving Burrow a path to break the matchup with Chase and Higgins. At $6.8k, I like betting on the game environment and Burrow’s multi-TD ceiling rather than being scared off by three weeks of defensive results. It is easy Lawrence leverage, too.
Projection: 21.54 DK points at 7.03% pOwn, with a 32-point ceiling.
Dak Prescott | $6,400 | @ HOU
DAL ranks first in pass rate over expectation, and Dak has already thrown seven TDs through three games. The matchup also gives him room to stay aggressive, with HOU ranking 31st against intermediate passing and 28th in pressure defense. At modest ownership, he has a clean path to 300 yards and multiple scores without needing anything weird to happen.
Projection: 20.56 DK points at 4.31% pOwn, with a 29-point ceiling.
Jalon Daniels | $4,400 | vs GB
It could be a boat, right? We have no idea what to expect out of the UDFA. Daniels gets his first NFL start with Baker Mayfield sidelined, and the appeal is mostly price plus rushing upside. GB can create pressure, so this is not a comfortable matchup, but an athletic QB under $4.5k does not need a massive passing day to beat salary expectations. If Daniels can manufacture points with his legs while TB is forced to chase points, he opens up completely different GPP roster constructions.
Projection: 15.74 DK Points at 2.48 pOwn with a 19-point ceiling.
Running Back
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Derrick Henry | $8,400 | vs TEN
Is there a better game environment for King Henry than as an 11.5 home favorite? The matchup helps too, as BLT ranks first in EPA against light boxes while TEN sits 27th defending them. Wishing the Titans all the luck on that uphill trek. Henry does not need a huge receiving role when the path to 20-plus carries and multiple goal-line chances is this clean.
Projection: 19.06 DK points at 10.01% pOwn, with a 30-point ceiling.
Javonte Williams | $6,600 | @ HOU
HOU has been excellent against RBs, allowing just 11.8 DK points per game to the position, but Javonte’s workload keeps him in the tournament conversation. He has handled 84% of DAL’s first-down carries, giving him one of the cleaner paths to volume on the slate.
Projection: 14.88 DK points at 6.22% pOwn, with a 25-point ceiling.
Jeremiyah Love | $5,800 | @ NYG
Love is coming off 22.8 expected fantasy points in Week 3, which is the kind of workload spike I want to chase before the salary fully catches up. NYG has allowed 22.0 DK points per game to RBs, and ARI enters as a road favorite with a game script that should keep the backfield involved.
Projection: 16.11 DK points at 16.10% pOwn, with a 25-point ceiling.
Bhayshul Tuten | $5,600 | @ CIN
Tuten’s expected fantasy points have climbed from 9.4 to 13.5 to 13.9 through three weeks, giving us a real opportunity trend instead of a pure ownership play. JAX is getting one of the best game environments on the slate against CIN. At $5,600 and modest ownership, he gives us a way to bet on this game without following the field into the obvious passing pieces like Washington mega chalk.
Projection: 24.84 DK points at 8.1% pOwn, with a 36-point ceiling.
Braelon Allen | $5,200 | @ CHI
With Breece Hall out, Allen gets the workload bump, and the matchup looks nice. CHI has allowed 20.0 DK points per game to RBs, while NYJ enters as just a 3.5-point underdog, so Allen should stay involved even if the game tilts slightly negative. At $5,200, the appeal is simple: a starting RB workload without a starting RB salary.
Projection: 13.37 DK points at 9.46% pOwn, with a 21-point ceiling.
Wide Receiver
Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
CeeDee Lamb and/or George Pickens | $7,800, $6,300 | @HOU
Lamb and Pickens have each seen 25 targets through three games, so this is not a spot where one receiver is surviving on scraps behind the other. HOU has allowed 40.0 DK points per game to WRs, giving both players room to hit in the same game environment. Lamb offers the higher raw ceiling, while Pickens is the cheaper way to attack.
CeeDee Projection: 17.48 DK points at 8.40% pOwn, with a 29-point ceiling.
George Projection: 15.20 DK points at 12.03% pOwn, with a 26-point ceiling.
Christian Watson | $6,700 | @ TB
Watson has already turned 27 targets into four TDs through three games, giving him the kind of ceiling we want even in a lower-total spot. TB has been stingy overall, but Watson does not need double-digit catches to get there because much of his value comes downfield and around the end zone. At single-digit ownership, I am willing to bet on the big-play profile rather than chase the safer volume plays.
Projection: 15.32 DK points at 7.89% pOwn, with a 25-point ceiling.
Tee Higgins | $6,100 | vs JAX
Tee leads the team in rec yards, so the volume is there even with Ja’Marr Chase. In a 51.5-point game, I like getting exposure to CIN through the cheaper receiver who can still post a tournament-winning score if the TDs come; Higgins gives us real ceiling without paying all the way up for Chase because he is downfield so much more. His aDOT currently sits at 12.91 while Chase is at 8.80. A two bomb TD game can happen any week with Meat Higgins.
Projection: 15.19 DK points at 13.48% pOwn, with a 26-point ceiling.
Michael Wilson | $5,500 | @ NYG
Shocked Betz did not steal him for his cash article (for now). Wilson is coming off a massive 31.2 expected fantasy points with 17 targets in Week 3, so there is a real opportunity spike behind the box score. NYG has allowed 35.9 DK points per game to WRs, and Wilson gives us a cheaper way into an ARI passing game that should have room to create chunk plays. At this price, I am willing to bet that last week’s usage was more than a one-game blip.
Projection: 14.13 DK points at 11.04% pOwn, with a 24-point ceiling.
Jordan Addison | $5,300 | vs MIA
Addison jumped to 20.5 expected fantasy points in Week 3, and that role could grow even more if Justin Jefferson sits after missing both Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury. MIN is a 10.5-point favorite, so the overall game environment is not ideal, but Addison gives us a cheap way to bet on concentrated targets.
Projection: 12.10 DK points at 4.45% pOwn, with a 21-point ceiling.
WR Darts
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Quentin Johnston | @ SEA | $4,4800
Gross. So, friggin’, gross, I know. He looks awful on the field, between not being able to stay on his feet on out routes and dropping wide-open passes. Buuutttt the salary is hard to ignore if Ladd sits. At $4.8k, Johnston would be priced like a secondary option while stepping into a much larger role in a game where LAC should have to throw. This is less about attacking SEA and more about betting that increased opportunity can overcome the matchup.
Projection: 10.15 DK points at 2.43% pOwn, with an 18-point ceiling.
Makai Lemon | $4,100 | vs LAR
Lemon has already run 85 routes through three weeks, so this is not a bench player we are hoping suddenly earns snaps. The appeal is what happens if DeVonta Smith sits and those routes turn into more valuable targets against an LA defense that allows 30.8 DK points per game to WRs. At a punt price and tiny ownership, Lemon is exactly the kind of injury-created dart that shoots you up the leaderboard.
Projection: 9.33 DK points at 1.58% pOwn, with a 16-point ceiling.
Tight End
Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
Dalton Kincaid | $5,300 | vs NE
Kincaid has 17 targets through three games and gives us direct access to BUF’s passing ceiling without paying up at WR. The matchup should keep ownership reasonable. Two TE builds have been extremely profitable this year, and I see Kincaid as BUF’s WR1 with a TE tag.
Projection: 12.07 DK points at 5.55% pOwn, with a 21-point ceiling.
Kenyon Sadiq | $4,000 | @ CHI
Sadiq’s Week 3 breakout was backed by 16.6 expected fantasy points, so there was real opportunity behind the 105-yard performance. Mason Taylor is now out, which gives Sadiq a chance to keep that expanded role. As long as his back issue does not worsen, his salary is too cheap.
Projection: 10.16 DK points at 4.32% pOwn, with an 18-point ceiling.
Brenton Strange | $3,200 | @ CIN
Strange is a cheap option in the slate’s highest-total matchup. CIN has allowed 17.7 DK points per game to TEs, giving him a cleaner path to a ceiling game than his early-season box scores suggest. He also works as a natural JAX bring-back in Burrow stacks without forcing us into the more popular JAX pieces.
Projection: 9.30 DK points at 10.13% pOwn, with a 16-point ceiling.
A.J. Barner | $3,000 | vs LAC
I love the Barnyard Dog. SEA is absolutely smashing in 12 & 21 personnel this year, and I do not see that changing as TD home favorites. Barner jumped to 18.0 expected fantasy points in Week 3, which is a much stronger signal than simply chasing last week’s box score. SEA has been willing to involve him around the goal line as the QB for a tush push, giving him a real TD path even without elite target volume.
Projection: 7.99 DK points at 5.59% pOwn, with a 15-point ceiling.
DST
*Defenses are volatile, and I recommend hard capping them for MME sets. Any DST can score a TD.
Vikings | $4,000 | vs MIA
MIN gets a MIA offense ranked 27th in EPA/play and dead last in success rate, making them the cleanest floor-plus-ceiling DST on the board.
Projection: 9.04 DK points at 6.00% pOwn, with a 15.08-point ceiling.
Ravens | $3,800 | vs TEN
BLT is an 11.5-point favorite against a TEN offense implied for just 15.5 points, hopefully creating a sack-and-TO game for Ravens’ DST.
Projection: 8.55 DK points at 3.47% pOwn, with a 15-point ceiling.
Bills | $3,300 | vs NE
BUF’s pass rush ranks sixth in pressure rate while NE sits 28th in pass protection.
Projection: 7.50 DK points at 3.62% pOwn, with a 13-point ceiling.
49ers | 2,900 | vs DEN
SF ranks first in pressure defense while DEN ranks 31st in EPA under pressure. Plus, Bo Nix looks drunk when he is running outside the pocket.
Projection: 5.58 DK points at 1.38% pOwn, with a 12-point ceiling.
Last Week’s Milly Maker Winner
It took 239.80 points to win the Week 3 Milly. 180DegreesMiami took it down with one of 10 entries, using all $50,000 without a duplicate. Combined ownership was 121.8%, actually higher than the 116.3% field average, but that number hides the leverage. Geno Smith, Jameson Williams, Kenyon Sadiq, Juwan Johnson, and the Vikings were all below 9% ownership. The cash pool covered Gibbs, Warren, and Garrett Wilson, while JSN and MIN were featured in my GPP piece, giving us five of the nine spots. Progress.
The separation came from the build. Geno stacked with Garrett Wilson + Sadiq paired with two DET runbacks, Gibbs and Jameson, created a five-man NYJ-DET stack that only 433 of 160,037 entries used. That group produced 136.54 points even with Jameson stuck at 8.9. The two-TE construction hit again too, with Sadiq and Juwan combining for 50.8 points. Only 38.4% of the field used a TE in FLEX, but every top-10 lineup did. Even crazier, all 10 top-10 lineups had Geno, Garrett Wilson, and Sadiq, while nine also had Gibbs. The winner did not win by avoiding the best plays. It got different by putting them together better.
| Player Name | Betz – Cash Article | Cash – GPP |
| Geno | ||
| Gibbs | Yes | |
| Warren | Yes | |
| JSN | Yes | |
| G. Wilson | Yes | |
| Jameson Williams | ||
| Sadiq | ||
| Johnson | ||
| Vikings | Yes |
Milly Maker ROI/GPP Picks Review
We are all about transparency here, so we audit the picks over the year. Players are considered a hit if they returned a positive ROI in lineups in the tournament.
This week, only 34 of 415 players in the Milly Maker finished with a positive Player ROI, or 8.19% of the player pool. Our picks produced three positive-ROI plays out of 16 recommendations, an 18.75% hit rate.
The goal of this review is not to pat ourselves on the back when picks hit or beat ourselves up when they miss. It is to better understand how individual plays actually perform inside large-field tournaments, where salary, ownership, roster construction, and correlation all affect ROI. Tracking that over time should help us make better decisions about what types of plays and combinations are actually worth targeting going forward.
| Position | Picks | Hits | Misses | Hit rate |
| QB | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22.22% |
| RB | 19 | 4 | 15 | 21.05% |
| WR | 26 | 6 | 20 | 23.08% |
| TE | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25.00% |
| DST | 10 | 2 | 8 | 20.00% |
| Total | 76 | 17 | 59 | 22.37% |
QB: Allen (-93.2%), Lamar (-89.4%), and Purdy (-10.6%) all finished with negative ROI. Purdy was the least damaging of the group, but none of the three qualified as a hit.
RB: Taylor (-83.6%), Chase Brown (-77.9%), Breece Hall (-75.2%), and Javonte Williams (-72.5%) all missed. There was not much to salvage here, with every recommendation finishing below -70% ROI.
WR: JSN (+168.9%) and Ja’Marr Chase (+37.8%) were both hits. Jefferson (-90.5%), McMillan (-85.3%), and McConkey (-73.2%) all finished well into negative territory.
TE: McBride (-40.2%) and Fannin (-2.6%) both missed. Fannin came close to break-even, but that is about all I can say there.
DST: Minnesota (+448.4%) was easily the best result of the week, while Detroit (-77.6%) missed. The Vikings gave us our strongest hit at any position.