DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 5 (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: ATL -1.5
Total: 43.5
Team Totals: Falcons (22.5), Bucs (21.0)
Game Outlook
Week 5 in the NFL kicks off on Thursday night when the Bucs travel to Atlanta for an NFC South Divisional matchup against the Falcons with the total currently sitting at 43.5. In what is essentially a pick ’em, the Falcons are favored at home my just 1.5 points, so we can likely use neutral script play calling tendencies to get an idea of what each team will do when they have the ball. Let’s start with the home team in Atlanta. Through one month, the Falcons have struggled to generate play volume at a high level, ranking 31st in plays per game and 22nd in pass rate over expectation (PROE) at -6.5%. This week, they get a matchup against a Bucs D that ranks dead last in EPA per rush attempt and 30th in rushing yards over expectation per attempt entering Week 4, so on paper, this is a spot where the Falcons should be able to run a fairly balanced offense as they’ve done for most of September.
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