DFS Monday Night Football: DraftKings for Week 6 (Fantasy Football)
MNF on DK is the cure for the worst day of the week.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning Showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat Showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: SF -7.5
Total: 51.5
Team Totals: SF 29.5, WAS 22
SF is a 7.5-point favorite, with the total sitting at 51.5 at most books. The recent movement has leaned toward SF winning, with one sportsbook moving its price from roughly -420 to -450. That means backing SF to win has become more expensive, but winning this game and winning by at least eight points are two different beasts.
That distinction matters when we look at liquidity. That is simply the amount available to bet at the quoted terms. As of this morning, roughly $1.8 million is available to bet SF -7.5, compared with $121k on WAS +7.5. The larger amount represents offers effectively saying, “Gimme WAS and the points. Who wants SF?” Those are offers waiting to be accepted, so we cannot treat them as money already wagered, but they show willingness to take the other side of an SF cover.
The total has its own wrinkle: pricing became more optimistic about scoring through much of the week, followed by some recent movement back toward the Under. I would not be surprised to see afternoon casuals pumping the Over before kickoff. So if you want to bet the Under, you will likely get better odds as we get closer to kickoff.
For our Showdown builds, I see room for fantasy production, but the market gives us reasons to consider a competitive game alongside the SF blowout builds.
Injury Report
SF Out
- DL Nick Bosa (knee, calf)
- WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring)
SF Questionable
- WR Mike Evans (ribs, Achilles)
- Christian Kirk (cal)
WAS Out
- RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (groinindex.com)
- QB Marcus Mariota (knee)
WAS Questionable
- WR Stefon Diggs
- RB Jeremy McNichols
For this writing, I am considering Kirk OUT and Diggs IN based on market sentiment. That does not confirm status.
Top CPT Plays
Christian McCaffrey $17,700
McCaffrey has five rushing TDs on 13 carries inside the opponent’s 20, giving us a clear reason to chase multiple scores at CPT. I want him when SF moves the ball and he finishes the drives, with his receiving work keeping him involved if WAS answers. White and Okonkwo give us affordable WAS production alongside McCaffrey and Purdy. Leaving Daniels out of this version gives us enough salary to finish the lineup with useful players around that core.
Stack Idea: McCaffrey CPT + Purdy + White + Okonkwo
Jayden Daniels $15,000
Daniels ran for 103 yards and two TDs last week, showing why he can lead this slate in fantasy points even if WAS loses. I like him at CPT when WAS production runs through his arm and legs while SF spreads its scoring among several players. Okonkwo gives us an affordable receiving partner, and we can still keep Purdy and Kittle across from that combination. We are betting Daniels finishes with the most fantasy points while SF stays productive.
Stack Idea: Daniels CPT + Okonkwo + Purdy + Kittle
Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images
George Kittle $12,300
Kittle has four TDs through five games, so there is a scoring argument behind the salary savings. He is my favorite starting point because we can pair him with Purdy and Daniels and still have room for useful players in the remaining FLEX spots. Reviewing the last few slates, the field is not creating enough positive ROI lineups with the best projected players. They love punting in the sub-$2k range.
I do not want to be those people. I am going to try to make as many unique combinations of strong plays, not just throw a rando in there because the salary works.
We are betting SF’s receiving production will concentrate on Kittle while Daniels keeps WAS involved. I am comfortable leaving Evans out of this version and making that decision about the receiving TDs count.
Stack Idea: Kittle CPT + Purdy + Daniels
Top FLEX Plays
Brock Purdy $10,800
A little surprised Purdy is pulling more pOwn than Daniels. WAS has allowed 14 passing TDs through five games, giving Purdy a matchup I want exposure to. He leads our projection blend and fits several of our preferred CPT combinations. I want him alongside Kittle when we expect SF receiving production to concentrate on the TE, and across from Daniels when both offenses are producing. Keeping Purdy in FLEX lets us collect his passing points while putting the multiplier on the player we expect to separate.
He will be highly owned at CPT, but I trust Daniels’ legs more, and not playing Purdy at CPT is a leverage play.
Stack Idea: Kittle CPT + Purdy + Daniels
Rachaad White $6,600
With Croskey-Merritt out, White brings rushing opportunities and receiving involvement, with 10 catches on 10 targets this season. I like him as the main WAS scoring investment in a McCaffrey-Purdy lineup, as paying for Daniels would weaken the remaining FLEX spots. Adding Okonkwo gives us another affordable WAS piece while leaving enough salary to complete the SF side. White needs to earn his place through useful touches, and his involvement in both parts of the offense tees him up for that.
Stack Idea: McCaffrey CPT + Purdy + White + Okonkwo
Chig Okonkwo $4,600
Okonkwo caught four passes for 60 yards in Daniels’ return, giving us an affordable way to stack the WAS passing game. I like him with Daniels at CPT when McLaurin or Diggs would make the rest of the lineup too expensive. His salary lets us keep Purdy and Kittle across from that stack while leaving room for useful players in the final two spots. He earns this FLEX recommendation because of the combinations he creates.
Stack Idea: Daniels CPT + Okonkwo + Purdy + Kittle
GPP Leverage Plays
Mike Evans $9,600
Evans is questionable, so I want him active with a workload that supports this salary. At 35% projected FLEX pOwn, the leverage comes from pairing him with Purdy while leaving Kittle and McCaffrey out. We are betting that SF’s receiving TDs land with Evans while Daniels supplies enough rushing and passing production to deserve CPT.
Stack Idea: Daniels CPT + Purdy + Evans + Okonkwo
Terry McLaurin $8,000
McLaurin’s targets have averaged 12.8 yards downfield, giving us a way to chase bigger gains alongside Daniels. I like him in WAS passing builds that leave White out. We are paying more for the possibility that WAS answers through the air and McLaurin collects the receiving yards and a TD. Kittle at CPT gives us enough salary to keep both QBs around that bet.
Stack Idea: Kittle CPT + Purdy + Daniels + McLaurin
Brandin Cooks $4,000
Cooks is expected to take on a larger role with Deebo out, giving us a football reason to consider him at this price. I like him as Purdy’s second pass-catcher, since paying for both Evans and Kittle would make the combination supes expensive. Pairing Cooks with Kittle and Daniels while leaving McCaffrey out bets on a SF air raid via the veterans’ hands. His pOwn is close to Cowing’s; I just can not guarantee a snap count. Last week, Deebo played 43% of plays, so how will those be distributed this week? WR snap count from Week 5:
- Mike Evans 63%
- Jacob Cowing 43%
- Brandin Cooks 40%
- Jordan Watkins 37%
While I do not like it, I will have a few lineups with Cowing and Watkins, but only in 150 sets.
Stack Idea: Kittle CPT + Purdy + Cooks + Daniels
Austin Ekeler $3,600
Ekeler played just six offensive snaps last week, so this recommendation requires an expanded role with Croskey-Merritt out. The savings can help retain another premium player, but his uncertain workload keeps him in GPPs. This is a deliberate alternative to spending more on the popular White.
Stack Idea: Kittle CPT + Purdy + Daniels + Ekeler
Final Thoughts/Game Theory Ideas
In 5-1 builds, make sure to CPT a player from the team with five players.
Hitting a bullseye with the 1 side at CPT while you FLEX five players from the other is negative ROI over the slates we studied. Usually, 5-1 is betting on one team exploding, so do not waste your 1.5x bonus on the direct opposite of that bet.
Make all six spots earn their place
I am zeroing out DST, removing kickers from CPT, and leaving players below $1,000 out of my pool. All 24 of my DST lineups missed the cash line last Monday, and tonight I want those roster spots to go to the offensive production we expect (which means I just manifested a DST TD). Kickers remain options in FLEX, while the cheaper offensive players still need a clear role. I am nervous about WR 3 – 4 for SF and how Cooks, Cowing, and Watkins will work together. Hopefully, we get clarity before kickoff.
Give the CPT a football case
Last Monday, my CPT scoring beat the field average, while my five FLEX spots fell behind. That is why I want to evaluate the complete combination around McCaffrey finishing drives, Kittle collecting receiving TDs, or Daniels adding points on the ground. A cheaper CPT needs a credible ceiling before the salary savings become useful. When an expensive CPT leaves me uncomfortable with the last two spots, I am willing to change the core.
Keep both sides of the game available
SF is implied for 29.5 points and WAS for 22, giving us room to consider both QBs together. SF can win while Daniels produces enough through the air and on the ground to be a strong CPT, and Kittle at CPT gives us another way to fit Purdy and Daniels. I want 3-3 builds, 4-2 builds in both directions, and selective 5-1 combinations whose players fit the same game outcome.
Choose where the TDs go
Some of my SF passing builds will pair Purdy with Evans or Kittle and leave McCaffrey out. Some of my WAS passing builds will pair Daniels with McLaurin and leave White out. When I use Ekeler, it is because I am betting he gets more valuable backfield touches, so I can leave White out of that group. Those omissions give the lineup a clearer way to gain ground when the scoring goes our way.
Spend for the finished lineup
I am comfortable leaving salary when I prefer all six players and understand how their production fits together. Before doing that, I want to check whether the remaining money can improve the final FLEX spot. A different combination is useful when the players still have the opportunity to deliver, but just because a lineup is different does not make it good.