DFS Monday Night Football: DraftKings for Week 3 (Fantasy Football)
Hey, main slate, YOU SUCK. MNF rules! Let’s break down how to attack it in Showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning Showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat Showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: PHI -3.5
Total: 41.5
Team Totals: PHI (22.5) and CHI (19)
Game Outlook
Caleb Williams is out, and Case Keenum is expected to start despite Tyson Bagent clearing concussion protocol. That is a downgrade, but I trust Ben Johnson to give CHI a chance without asking Keenum to carry the offense. PHI is laying 3.5; I would have expected a bigger number for the comfortable Eagles win we might be tempted to assume. I still lean PHI, but I am not building as though CHI has already lost.
Swift has 169 rushing yards, and Kyle Monangai has another 147 through two games, although losing Caleb also removes a QB who contributed 107 rushing yards. I am betting on Ben Johnson keeping this competitive through the running game and manageable throws, not Keenum suddenly becoming the best play on the slate. My preferred script remains a competitive PHI win, with CHI contributing enough offense that its players are more than obligatory bring-backs. Smith catching the TDs points me toward Smith CPT with Hurts, while Barkley finishing those drives gives me a reason to leave an expensive passing piece out; either version can include a CHI RB without requiring Keenum to have a big fantasy night.
Graph courtesy of OddsJam.
Kalshi shows about $384,600 available to bet on PHI -3.5, compared with $27,400 on CHI +3.5, but that does not mean everyone is betting on the Eagles. Think of it like someone saying, “I will take the Bears plus 3.5. Who wants the Eagles minus 3.5?” That big number beside PHI is money waiting for someone to accept the Eagles side of that deal, not money already bet on them. So it could actually reflect people willing to back Chicago, but we do not know their other bets, and this is not proof that everyone loves the Bears.
Injury Report
PHI
- Out: TE Dallas Goedert (knee), WR Hollywood Brown (ankle), OT Fred Johnson (knee).
- Questionable: EDGE Jonathan Greenard (pectoral).
CHI
- Out: QB Caleb Williams (hamstring).
- QB update: Tyson Bagent cleared concussion protocol, but Keenum is expected to start.
Top Captain Plays
Jalen Hurts $16,200
Hurts has 12 carries for 62 yards through two games but has not scored on the ground yet. That gives him another way to separate from his receivers beyond collecting the passing points. I want him at CPT in builds where PHI moves the ball through the air and Hurts finishes a drive or two himself. I would generally pair him with at least one pass catcher, but I am not forcing a double stack when the bet is on his rushing production.
Stack Idea: Hurts CPT + Smith + Wicks, with Swift coming back
DeVonta Smith $15,900
Smith caught 10 passes for 117 yards and a TD last week, giving us a recent example of the receiving ceiling we are paying for here. He is my preferred CPT when the Eagles’ biggest performance comes through the air rather than around the goal line. I would pair him with Hurts, but Barkley does not automatically need to join them. Smith collecting the receiving TDs while CHI scores through its RBs gives us a clear direction for the rest of the lineup.
Stack Idea: Smith CPT + Hurts with Monangai + Burden
D’Andre Swift $14,400
Swift leads Monangai 34 to 20 in carries and has added six receptions through two games. He is my CHI CPT choice for builds where Johnson keeps the offense balanced and the Bears finish drives on the ground. Monangai is involved enough that I am not treating this as a guaranteed workload, but Swift does not need every touch to give us the best score from da Bears. In small-field tournaments, I would generally leave Monangai out of these builds and bet on Swift getting most of the DK points. In large fields, I will play them together because the field is usually underweight on a double RB build from the same team for showdown.
Stack Idea: Swift CPT + Hurts + Smith + Raymond
Top FLEX Plays
Saquon Barkley $10,000
Barkley has no game designation after last week’s stinger, so do not take Bigsby’s injury-driven workload as proof that this has become a split backfield. I prefer Barkley in FLEX for my primary builds because Hurts and Smith give us other ways to capture PHI’s ceiling at CPT. He also fits the version where Keenum struggles, the Eagles control possession, and there is less reason to spend on the Chicago passing game. Barkley CPT still belongs in the wider pool when we specifically bet on PHI’s rushing TDs going his way (he likely ends up in about 20% of lineups at CPT).
Stack Idea: Hurts CPT + Barkley + Wicks + Burden
Case Keenum $8,400
This dude has not played a game since 2023, and he has no rushing upside. Putting Keenum here is not my way of telling you to click both QBs and move on. Two points I really want to drive home:
- Cheap QBs almost always go over owned because the pricing gives the field flexibility to fit in the household names they know and love.
- The field overplays double QB in showdown because it feels comfortable. That does not make it profitable.
He is expected to start, but this is not a minimum-priced replacement we can roster without thinking about how we can get unique. I want him alongside CHI pass catchers in builds where the Bears answer PHI through the air, rather than automatically adding him to Swift or Monangai scoring builds. However, CHI could keep this close, and Keenum can still disappoint us if they lean into the running/RB dump-off strategy.
Stack Idea: Hurts CPT + Keenum + Burden + Raymond
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Dontayvion Wicks $4,400
He can catch now! Wicks already has seven catches for 147 yards and a TD through two games, so his appeal is not limited to guessing where Goedert’s missing targets go. He is my first look for a reasonably priced Hurts stacking partner before I start cycling through the cheaper PHI pass catchers. He also gives us a way to build around Hurts without automatically spending another $10,600 on Smith. Those savings let us keep meaningful pieces from both backfields.
As of this writing, he is coming in under 40% pOwn in the FLEX and around 9% at CPT. I figured the pricing would steam him up, but it may be better leverage to FLEX him at almost 10% CPT pOwn. As the fourth-highest owned CPT, this feels like an easy way to get different by capping him around 5% MAX in your MME sets.
Stack Idea: Hurts CPT + Wicks + Barkley + Swift
GPP Leverage Plays
Luther Burden III $7,600
Burden has eight catches for 95 yards through two games. I want some exposure to the version where Johnson creates receiving production without asking Keenum to consistently win on difficult throws downfield. Burden is expensive enough that a handful of short catches probably will not separate us, so this is a bet that those touches become bigger plays or TDs after the catch. He fits best with Keenum and PHI scoring pieces that keep CHI throwing.
Stack Idea: Hurts CPT + Keenum + Burden + Wicks
Colston Loveland $7,000
One catch for three yards on five targets through two games makes clicking a $7k TE feel sort of like I am lined up for a field goal, and my family jewels are the football. But hey, he started slow last year, right? Loveland is a ceiling bet in a smaller portion of my Keenum stacks. I want him in builds where Chicago’s receiving TDs land with him. “Backup QBs love tight ends” is not enough of an argument on its own; we are explicitly betting on a different result than what he’s shown so far because of a QB change.
Stack Idea: Hurts CPT + Keenum + Loveland + Wicks
Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images
Kyle Monangai $5,600
Monangai has 147 rushing yards on 20 carries and costs $4k less than Swift. That discount gives us more room for the expensive Eagles without needing a near-zero-projection punt to finish the lineup. My preferred version leaves Swift out and bets on Monangai finishing a drive or two. We do not need him to take over the backfield; we need tonight’s scoring opportunities to go his way.
Stack Idea: Smith CPT + Hurts + Monangai + Santos
Kalif Raymond $3,800
Raymond leads Chicago with 13 catches for 124 yards through two games, so this is not a random cheap WR we are hoping gets on the field. His salary lets us keep the expensive Eagles while getting a Bears receiver with actual production. I like him as a standalone bring-back when Chicago’s TDs come on the ground because Raymond contributes through receptions. He does not need a TD to pay this off. The ownership matters here because an affordable player with that usage could easily become popular rather than give us leverage. Luckily, I do not see him getting over 25% by kickoff in the FLEX, so we have instant leverage if he PPR-scams his way to a decent game.
Stack Idea: Swift CPT + Hurts + Smith + Raymond
Zach Ertz $2,600
Ertz is elevated, and $2,600 gets my attention with Goedert out. I am not handing him Goedert’s entire workload, but we do not need vintage Ertz to make this salary work. A few catches and a TD would do plenty of damage while leaving room for the expensive pieces. I like him as a cheap Hurts stacking partner, not someone I am plugging into every lineup just because the name is familiar. I do not know if he is dust or not, but last year he averaged 40 yards/.25 TDs a game. That will do at $2.6k. Keep your ears to the ground, though, because hints on his usage for the night will be pivotal.
Stack Idea: Smith CPT + Hurts + Ertz + Swift
Final Thoughts/Game Theory Ideas
- Contest Selection is Key. I grade out GPPs for each slate for DK and FD. I will update it here when it is done and drop it in the DFS Discord. Start with contest selection before worrying about the sixth player in your lineup! Use the grades to compare the payout structures and entry limits against your bankroll and the number of lineups you are actually playing. Stay away from the lottos (10,000+ entries) if you are actually trying to grind out a profit.
- Trusting Ben Johnson does not require both QBs. Same principle as last week: a team can remain competitive without its QB producing a ceiling game. Swift or Monangai getting the TDs, Raymond catching a handful of passes, and Santos finishing another drive can make CHI useful without Keenum belonging in the winning lineup. Build some of those versions instead of treating the CHI competes narrative and the Keenum pays off narrative as the same bet.
- Decide which expensive Eagle can disappoint. Smith CPT with Hurts does not require Barkley. Barkley CPT does not require Smith. Hurts CPT with Wicks gives us a passing connection without paying for every premium name. I would rather make those deliberate choices than repeatedly roster the same expensive core and hope changing one cheap player creates enough separation.
- Make the cheap players earn their spots. Jake Elliott at $4,800 and Cairo Santos at $4,600 belong in builds where drives stall instead of becoming TDs. I would rather use a kicker who fits that script than force a cheaper receiver simply to afford another star. Leaving salary is fine, but it is not an accomplishment by itself; make your lineup around a forecast you see for how this game plays out.