Borg’s DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 16 (Fantasy Football)
Every week I want to unpack part of the process in assembling my cash game lineup. The goal is neither to boast or wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week.
For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, my thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including ROI and H2H record to stay accountable with you.
If you’re wanting to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on Cash Game Strategy. I also published an article on How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.
Week 16 Cash Lineup
Note: Roster percentages shown from NFL Massive $25 Double-Up [Single Entry] with 8,000+ entrants. This contest gives one of the better sample sizes for cash in my opinion.
The Thought Process
I’m going to try and keep this short and sweet. This week was wild with my house completely packed up, signing on new house, Christmas, and everything else that comes with the holidays…
- At QB, I only considered Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Matthew Stafford. I sided with Stafford in the highest total of the week and thought he was a bit underpriced given the matchup. The Vikings were supposed to be a pushover.
- There were so many RBs I wanted to play this week: Justin Jackson, Alexander Mattison, James Robinson, Ronald Jones II, and David Montgomery. The 3-RB build is what seemed like everyone’s strategy. And from the beginning
- Once we got news of Austin Ekeler being out, Jackson was the free square this week and he went above and beyond anyone’s expectations with a monster game. You had to have him in your lineup at that price tag or you were likely sunk.
- I made the joke on Friday’s podcast that “everyone and their mama” played James Robinson last week. Because of that, I was ok not simply clicking copy and paste this week despite the matchup against the Jets. It doesn’t sound overly complicated but this was a choice of not going with the herd and not being super impressed with the OL/DL matchup for JAX. Anyone who played JRob made the right call but it’s just unfortunate an injury occurred, especially for Robinson to suffer a devastating Achilles injury.
- Instead, I went with my cash lock of the week, David Montgomery. Part of it was honest stubbornness because I wrote him up and because I touted him on the podcast. But the touches were going to be there, he was just as good a bet as Robinson to get in the end-zone, and with Seattle allowing the most RB receptions in the NFL, my projections had him catching 4.5 balls. He ended up with seven with a nice game at a much lower roster percentage than JRob.
- The Falcons were my DST choice from the beginning. I never wavered with my guys at home with a shot at Tim Boyle. It wasn’t pretty, but they got to seven wins!
- At WR, I kept my pool of players pretty small with Cooper Kupp being locked in from Day 1. The stack with Matthew Stafford felt too good to be true against Minnesota.
- Antonio Brown felt like the greatest value on the slate at his salary. He was locked-in from the get-go with 25+ percent target share a guarantee. He far exceeded that seeing 50 percent of the targets!
- My 3rd WR spot shifted from Keenan Allen to Tee Higgins. By Sunday morning, with the news of Travis Kelce being OUT, I wanted to get all the Tyreek Hill I could giving my lineup a unique build from everyone else with obvious upside. It was a bit reckless, to be honest as Higgins + Ronald Jones was much safer. And of course, Higgins goes absolutely bananas. In other to move to Tyreek, I needed to drop down and Josh Palmer. The savings were enormous and he projected for 10+ points, which was a good 3x already.
|Week||DK Pts||H2H Win %|
All in all, solid week given my life happenings and something to build on for Week 17. My only regret is not playing more GPPs where I hit on some absolute darts including Rex Burkhead in the DFSPass!
Hat tip to the great @kyle_borg 🔥
From our DFS Best Plays article in the DFS Pass
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) December 27, 2021
Check in the DFS First Look Pricing article that comes out Tuesday AM!