NFL Week 12 Weather Conditions (Fantasy Football)
Last week was a great week for weather, but this week looks pretty rough for a couple games. There are also a few games with borderline weather that don’t appear to be an issue as of this writing, but could easily take a turn for the worse.
I’ll post any updates here on Sunday morning with a final update around 12:30. I’ll also feed weather updates to Mike “The Fantasy Hitman” Wright up to and during his live stream if anything changes to the forecasts.
Catch ‘SUNDAY LIVE’ at Noon ET — Mike “The Fantasy Hitman” Wright will be answering start/sit questions, and covering injury updates for Week 12.
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Sunday, November 24th, 2019:
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM ET
FIRSTENERGY STADIUM
CLEVELAND, OHIO
Temp: 41°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 15 mph
Wind Gusts: 23 mph
Fantasy Impact: None
Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins
1:00 PM ET
FEDEX FIELD
LANDOVER, MARYLAND
Temp:50°
Precipitation: Drizzle Early
Wind: 17 mph
Wind Gusts: 31 mph
Fantasy Impact: None
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets
1:00 PM ET
METLIFE STADIUM
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY
Temp: 39°
Precipitation: Drizzle
Wind: 14 mph
Wind Gusts: 29 mph
Fantasy Impact: None
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
1:00 PM ET
SOLDIER FIELD
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS
Temp: 37°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 10 mph
Wind Gusts: 18 mph
Fantasy Impact: None
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 PM ET
LINCOLN FINANCIAL FIELD
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA
Temp: 39°
Precipitation: Drizzle
Wind: 15 mph
Wind Gusts: 33 mph
Fantasy Impact: None
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM ET
NEW ERA FIELD
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK
Temp: 41°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 20 mph
Wind Gusts: 28 mph
Fantasy Impact: Let’s face it; we’re getting off light anytime we’re talking about weather in Buffalo that doesn’t include snow in the months of November and December. What we do have is a pretty significant sustained wind. I normally dismiss any winds less than 20 mph sustained, so we’re right on the borderline.
Buffalo’s defense ranks 9th in DVOA against the pass. This was never going to be a game where Denver wanted to test the defense through the air. From a fantasy perspective, QBs have averaged only 12.40 fantasy points per game against the defense through the season. In a game where Denver travels across the country to play in less than ideal weather conditions, against an elite pass defense, Brandon Allen isn’t even worth a start in 2-QB leagues. This trickles down to his receivers including Courtland Sutton who has been having a very nice breakout season despite inconsistent play at the QB position. Sutton is good enough to overcome a tough matchup here and there, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to leave him on your bench this week if you have a decent option. Tim Patrick may be emerging as the #2 WR on Denver, but he’s far from reliable especially in this game. I wanted to like Noah Fant this week especially after a 14 target game last week, but Buffalo has shut down opposing TEs. I still think gets good target volume despite the wind, but the matchup itself is tough.
Denver might not be able to win it through the air, but they may be able to pull it out on the ground. Buffalo has been gashed via the run game a few times this year. This benefits Phillip Lindsay who doubled up Royce Freeman in snap percentage, rushes, rushing yards, and receptions during the meltdown vs Minnesota last week. I wouldn’t trust either RB in a redraft lineup, but they become more interesting in DFS tournaments.
Speaking of DFS tournaments. The Josh Allen/John ‘Smokey’ Brown stack was THE play last week. The two connected for a 9/137/2 line against hapless Miami. I don’t like him in this game, but he has yet to have fewer than four receptions or 50 yards in any game this season, which is a decent floor and we just saw his ceiling. Somehow he’s become a matchup-proof start and this weather isn’t bad enough to recommend benching him. Josh Allen is a different matter. Last week was easily his best fantasy day with three TDs passing and another one rushing. I think he turns back into a pumpkin against a good Denver defense and dealing with less than ideal winds. I think it’s only a matter of time before Devin Singletary has a big game, but this is a tough matchup against a team that’s 6th in defensive DVOA vs the run. He’s also part of a committee with an RB in Frank Gore that needs only 46 yards to pass Barry Sanders for third in career rushing yards.
There’s a reason this game has one of the lowest over/unders of any game this season – the presence of high winds just reinforces what we expected out of this game.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM ET
PAUL BROWN STADIUM
CINCINNATI, OHIO
Temp: 45°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 12 mph
Wind Gusts: 20 mph
Fantasy Impact: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
4:05 PM ET
NISSAN STADIUM
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE
Temp: 50°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 7 mph
Wind Gusts: 13 mph
Fantasy Impact: None
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
4:25 PM ET
GILLETTE STADIUM
FOXBORO, MASSACHUSETTS
Temp: 45°
Precipitation: Rain
Wind: 20 mph
Wind Gusts: 30 mph
Fantasy Impact: Forecasts are all over the place for this one and will need to be updated leading right up to the game. We can expect to see moderate to heavy rain leading right up to kickoff along with breezy conditions. The rain should taper off right around kickoff, but the conditions will stay breezy.
One of the biggest fantasy football quandaries this week was what to do with Dak Prescott. He’s been a top-3 fantasy QB through the year, but he has a road game against a defense that has been historically dominant. To make matters worse, the flu has made it’s way through the Dallas locker room ahead of this game. Prescott has been on a tear this year, but this matchup is ugly and being away, outdoors, and in the elements is tough. This is definitely a bad spot for Prescott. I hate benching fantasy studs, but the matchup and weather is reasonably bad enough to make it prudent to at least consider other options. Amari Cooper has been great this year, but draws a bad matchup against Stephon Gilmore. Cooper is too good to outright sit in redraft, but injuries and a bad matchup limit his upside. Michael Gallup owned Detroit last week and will need to come through if Dallas is going to have a chance. Both Cooper and Gallup should get WR2 treatment. Ezekiel Elliott will get all the work he can handle regardless of what the weather actually does and is probably the safest bet to return fantasy value for this game.
At this point, even the most faithful have to admit Tom Brady isn’t particularly special for fantasy this year. It also looks like Phillip Dorsett is trending towards not playing along with Mohamed Sanu leaving Julian Edelman and the tricky New England backfield for fantasy owners to figure out. Edelman is always safe and James White is almost always good for 10 PPR fantasy points. The guy that’s hard to figure out is Sony Michel. The worse the field conditions are, the more I like Michel.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
8:20 PM ET
LEVI’S STADIUM
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA
Temp: 59°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 3 mph
Wind Gusts: 3 mph
Fantasy Impact: None
Monday, November 25th, 2019:
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Rams
8:15 PM ET
LOS ANGELES MEMORIAL COLISEUM
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA
Temp: 57°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 6 mph
Wind Gusts: 7 mph
Fantasy Impact: None