NFL Team Performance Trends Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back to another team performance trends article! In this edition, we will look at an overview of the league’s refreshed efficiencies as well as some players to watch out for in Week 7.
Let’s jump into things.
Offensive Takeaways
San Francisco sits at +0.22 EPA per play, which is still the best offense in football, though the margin has narrowed. Buffalo at +0.20 and Detroit at +0.18 are inching closer to the top spot, while Jacksonville (+0.16) and Kansas City (+0.15) complete the top five.
At the other end, the Chargers remain in a class of their own. Their -0.23 mark is nearly a full tenth of a point worse than Tennessee at -0.14, and they have now posted five consecutive weeks below -0.07 EPA/play on offense. They are on bye this week, which will be the most productive thing they will do all month.
Philadelphia deserves separate mention. At -0.14, they are the third-worst offense in football, and with the loss of Jalen Hurts, their outlook is even bleaker.
Defensive Takeaways
Minnesota continues to own the best defense in the league at -0.22 EPA/play, a full eight hundredths clear of Seattle at -0.14. Kansas City (-0.12), Tampa Bay (-0.08), and San Francisco (-0.07) round out the top five.
Dallas remains the worst defense in football at +0.17 for the fourth consecutive week. Their offense has now slipped to -0.13 over the last two weeks, which removes their ability to compete in shootouts and produce a lot of fantasy points. Detroit at +0.16 is the more exploitable version of a shootout-profile team.
Miami (+0.13), Buffalo (+0.12), and New Orleans (+0.08) complete the bottom five.
Player Opportunity
The table below shows each defense’s points allowed per touch to each position. League averages through six weeks sit at 0.82 fantasy points per RB touch, 2.80 per WR touch, 2.51 per TE touch, and 0.49 per QB dropback. We will reference this table to pick out some standout players in terms of breakout opportunity for Week 7.
RBs: New Orleans has been the softest run defense in the league all season, allowing 1.09 points per touch; Jaylen Warren walks into it carrying most of the Steelers’ workload, despite Rico Dowdle‘s recent return. That is the cleanest back play of the week. Carolina at 1.03 is nearly as generous, which puts Bucky Irving and his high usage in a great spot.
WRs: Arizona’s 3.74 points allowed per WR touch is 34 percent above league average and three tenths clear of the next-worst defense, which makes Denver’s passing game interesting, though it has not been all season. The complication is that Denver has no receiver commanding real volume, with Jaylen Waddle leading the group at just 3.7 touches per game. This is a matchup without an obvious beneficiary; however, Waddle and Sutton are both streamable.
In addition, Las Vegas has allowed 3.40 per WR touch, second-most in the league. With Davante Adams out, that leaves Puka Nacua and Konata Mumpfield as the top receivers heading into the game. Mumpfield could be an interesting flex stream in deep leagues, with Higbee and Colby Parkinson as strong options as well for TE.
TEs: With Washington on bye, Detroit becomes the position’s best target at 3.13 points allowed per touch, second-most in the league. Tucker Kraft draws that matchup and is set up to have a strong Week 7.
Carolina at 2.85 points per touch allowed gives Cade Otton a streaming path, and Pittsburgh at 2.82 opens a path for Juwan Johnson to light it up in Week 7 as well.
QBs. Arizona has allowed 0.75 points per dropback, 53 percent above the 0.49 league average and the largest positional edge available this week. Bo Nix has been mediocre this season, but against the shaky Cardinals secondary, he could be a solid start this week.
Please see below each team’s EPA trendlines for both offense and defense throughout the season.
The graphic below shows each team’s offense x defense EPA/play plotted, and connects them to their Week 7 matchup.
Good luck in your matchups!