NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 6 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back to another team performance trends article! In this edition, we will take trends going into Week 6. Let’s jump into things.
Offensive Takeaways
San Francisco (+0.226) still leads the league in offensive EPA/play, with Buffalo (+0.207), Detroit (+0.185), Kansas City (+0.165), Jacksonville (+0.156), and Baltimore (+0.155) forming a tight group behind. The spread from first to sixth is only seven hundredths of a point, so the top of the league is far more compressed than it was a month ago.
The New England Patriots have skyrocketed in terms of offensive EPA/play in the past two weeks. They are “in the green” again, averaging +0.040 EPA/play on the year.
At the bottom, the Chargers (-0.212) stand alone, with Tennessee (-0.143), Philadelphia (-0.137), Miami (-0.125), and Minnesota (-0.102) rounding out the worst five.
Defensive Insights
Minnesota has pulled away at -0.220 EPA/play, as they have been the most dominant defense this season; they are comfortably clear of Seattle at -0.144, the distant number two defensive unit in the NFL. Jacksonville (-0.094), San Francisco (-0.087), and the Jets (-0.078) complete the top five.
The worst defenses: Dallas at +0.194, Detroit at +0.162, Miami at +0.131, Buffalo at +0.130, and Arizona at +0.125. Dallas has held the worst defensive mark in football for three consecutive weeks while fielding a top-ten offense, which continues to make their games the highest-scoring environments on the schedule.
By net EPA, the leaders are San Francisco (+0.313), Jacksonville (+0.250), Kansas City (+0.238), Baltimore (+0.184), and Minnesota (+0.118).
The following chart shows each team’s week-over-week EPA trends for both sides of the ball.
Points Allowed Per Touch
The league averages through five weeks are 0.82 fantasy points per RB touch, 2.85 per WR touch, 2.50 per TE touch, and 0.50 per QB dropback. Every figure cited below is measured against those baselines. Let’s jump into some players to watch out for based on their Week 6 matchups.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard, Tennessee at Indianapolis. Indianapolis has allowed 1.05 per RB touch, second-most and 28 percent above average. Pollard is at 15.2 touches a game, but hasn’t had great production thus far. Look for him to pop a sleeper performance in Week 6.
Braelon Allen, NYJ at New England. New England has allowed 0.91 per RB touch, sixth-most in the league. As Breece Hall has not played since Week 3, Allen has handled the majority of the RB touches since. He will have a strong opportunity for another solid performance in Week 6.
Avoid: Avoid starting your RBs against the following defenses if you have comparable options: Tennessee (0.65), Minnesota (0.66), and Cleveland (0.67) have been the stingiest run defenses per touch, all roughly 20 percent below average.
Wide Receivers
Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, Buffalo at Las Vegas. Las Vegas has allowed 3.34 per WR touch, third-most in the league. Neither is an alpha pass catcher, with Shakir at 3.6 touches and Coleman at 3.0 per game, so treat both as flex plays rather than confident starts.
Michael Wilson, Arizona at the Rams. The Rams have allowed 3.40 per WR touch, second-most. Wilson has another week of total control over the passing game with MHJ now out of the mix, and just Trey McBride to compete with. Look for Wilson to perform in Week 6.
Avoid: Avoid WRs facing the following teams: Kansas City (2.20) and Carolina (2.39) have been the toughest receiver matchups among teams playing this week.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee, the Rams vs. Arizona. Arizona has allowed 3.21 per TE touch, second-most in the NFL, in addition to being the worst defense in football against both receivers and QBs. Higbee is slowly becoming the top TE in LA, so look for him to continue his strong performances into Week 6.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia vs. Carolina. Carolina has allowed 3.16 per TE touch; Goedert returned in Week 5 with nine targets after missing Weeks 3 and 4, so he is both healthy and immediately involved. Philadelphia’s offense is missing DeVonta Smith, so Goedert will continue to see a high target volume.
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay vs. Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has allowed 2.87 per TE touch, sixth-most in the NFL. Otton is at 3.6 touches and 7.2 points per game, so this is a streaming option rather than a start.
Quarterbacks
Jordan Love, Green Bay vs. Dallas. Dallas has allowed 0.62 per dropback – Look for Love to continue balling against a very shaky Dallas secondary. This one shouldn’t take much convincing.
Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta vs. Chicago. Chicago has allowed 0.62 per dropback despite grading respectably in overall defensive EPA. They defend the run well and have been beaten through the air repeatedly. Penix has started the last three games and should continue his prowess into Week 6 against a rough Chicago pass defense that they will surely attack.
The visual below outlines the Week 6 matchups, connecting opponents by offensive and defensive EPA.
