Fantasy Court: The Case Against James Cook in 2026 (Fantasy Football)
This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Don’t forget to check out “The Case FOR James Cook” for the opposing view.
Opening Statement
Ladies and gentlemen, as always, it is my honor to appear in Fantasy Court, especially after taking a brief hiatus in 2025. But do not let that fool you. My successful Fantasy Court history dates back to the days before COVID.
While it is an honor to be here, I wish it were under more positive circumstances. Unfortunately, it is my duty to make the case against James Cook in fantasy football this season. As you will see in the arguments I am about to present, he simply is not worth the investment required to add him to your team in 2026.
My case isn’t that James Cook is going to have a bad season. My case is that his current draft price assumes he is going to have another great one.
An Anomalous, Unsustainable Workload
There is no doubt that Cook is coming off a fantastic season. In fact, his past two seasons have been remarkable. In 2024, Cook scored TDs at such an insane rate that he was the cover player for the 2025 edition of my annual “Anomaly or New Norm” article for RBs.
That article predicted that Cook would not be able to repeat that TD pace in 2025. The prediction was correct, but Cook found another way to produce. He replaced TD regression with a massive workload increase, carrying the ball 102 more times than he did in 2024. That is a staggering 49.3% increase year over year.
Since 2015, there have been 15 workload spikes by RBs who had at least 150 carries and then increased their rushing attempts by at least 40%. You can see them in the table below, along with their carry change in the season following the massive increase.
| RB | Spike season | Carry increase | Following season | Carry change |
| Adrian Peterson | 2018 | 60.9% | 2019 | -15.9% |
| Antonio Gibson | 2021 | 51.8% | 2022 | -42.2% |
| Bijan Robinson | 2024 | 42.1% | 2025 | -5.6% |
| Carlos Hyde | 2019 | 42.4% | 2020 | -66.9% |
| DeMarco Murray | 2016 | 51.8% | 2017 | -37.2% |
| Derrick Henry | 2019 | 40.9% | 2020 | 24.8% |
| Derrick Henry | 2022 | 59.4% | 2023 | -19.8% |
| Jamaal Williams | 2022 | 71.2% | 2023 | -59.5% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2021 | 43.1% | 2022 | -42.2% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2024 | 79.3% | 2025 | 6.6% |
| Josh Jacobs | 2022 | 56.7% | 2023 | -31.5% |
| Kenyan Drake | 2020 | 40.6% | 2021 | -54.4% |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2016 | 81.2% | 2017 | -42.1% |
| Nick Chubb | 2019 | 55.2% | 2020 | -36.2% |
| Saquon Barkley | 2022 | 82.1% | 2023 | -16.3% |
As you can see, 13 of the 15 RB seasons with a 40% or greater increase in rushing attempts after already having 150-plus carries saw their rushing attempts decline the following season. The average decline was 29%, with a median decline of 36%. The only two RBs to actually increase their carries after a spike season over this span were Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor. And Cook isn’t built like either of those two workhorse backs. At 190 pounds, he is giving up 36 pounds to Taylor and 57 pounds to Henry.
Simply put, it is highly improbable for Cook to carry the ball over 300 times again in 2026.
Winds of Change in Buffalo
The Bills have been one of the NFL’s best teams in the Josh Allen era, but they have yet to reach the summit that is the Super Bowl. After nearly a decade of falling short, the Bills parted ways with defensive-minded head coach Sean McDermott this offseason. They didn’t look far for his replacement, as offensive coordinator Joe Brady was promoted to the head job.
Brady knows exactly what he has in Josh Allen. He will not have McDermott’s defensive-minded philosophy hanging over the offense, and he now has the opportunity to build the offense in his own image around an MVP QB.
Buffalo even bolstered its passing attack this season by trading for DJ Moore, who played under Brady in Carolina. The camp reports and highlights surrounding Moore’s arrival in Buffalo have already been glowing.
Now I will admit, more passing isn’t automatically a negative for Cook. As we know, a target is more valuable than a carry when it comes to fantasy point potential. The problem, however, is that Cook has never been a prolific pass catcher in the NFL. He has averaged just 41 targets per season and an 8% target share over his career. It may not even be a matter of skill. Cook could be a talented pass catcher. But the fact is that a playmaker like Josh Allen is more likely to ad-lib a downfield shot or take off on his own than dump it off to the RB when a play breaks down.
And if Brady does want to get his RBs more involved in the passing game, Cook is not the only option. Ty Johnson has carved out a role as a receiving back, catching 24 passes for 263 yards last season. A shift toward more passing could replace some of Cook’s rushing volume without necessarily funneling those opportunities back to him.
All of this gives me reason to believe Buffalo is more likely to increase its pass attempts than its rush attempts this season, which doesn’t bode well for Cook’s fantasy output.
Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
Heavy is the Crown
Cook turned his career-high carry count into a league-leading 1,621 rushing yards last season, enough to earn him the rushing title. That is impressive, but while the rushing crown is difficult to win, it is even harder to defend.
The last player to lead the league in rushing in consecutive seasons was King Henry, who did so in 2019 and 2020. Before him, you have to go all the way back to 2006 and 2007, when fantasy football legend LaDainian Tomlinson accomplished the feat.
This argument is simple, so I will keep it short. It is unreasonable to expect Cook to repeat his rushing success from last season, especially given the points I previously laid out.
Closing Argument
Given everything I have laid out, you may think I am trying to persuade the fantasy community at large to avoid Cook at all costs. Believe it or not, that couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, if the ADP landscape were slightly different this draft season, I may have been representing the defense instead.
However, the fact is that Cook is currently being drafted as the fifth RB off the board and the ninth overall player. At that cost, you need him to repeat last season’s RB5 finish just to return value. The evidence that I have provided shows that that is a bad bet to make.
Before closing, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Saquon Barkley. Remember his magical 2024 season? We all knew that it would be impossible to repeat, yet the market drove him up all summer long in 2025, all the way up to RB2 and the third overall player selected in fantasy drafts. Do you remember where he finished in 2025?
RB13.
That is a perfectly usable fantasy RB, but given his draft cost, Barkley was considered a bust.
Cook hasn’t quite reached those heights, but he is not far off. I would happily select him at a more reasonable spot in the draft, because I don’t believe he will have a bad season. However, it is highly unlikely that he once again finishes as a top-five fantasy RB. There are players with higher potential to be had in the first round.
James Cook is not on trial for being a bad fantasy football player. He is on trial for being drafted like last year’s fantasy finish is his floor. On that charge, he must be found guilty.