Pace of Play: Matchups & Stacks for Week 10 (Fantasy Football)
On to Week 10!
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week, I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics and stacks to consider for DFS tournaments.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score (GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 10, I’ve sorted by implied totals for all 28 teams playing (Bears, Broncos, Eagles & Buccaneers on bye) while focusing on neutral pace, pass rate over expectation (PROE), and EPA ranks and factor that for a final “GPS score”. For EPA, we will look at rank per-drop back and per-rush attempt for both offense and defense.
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download Pace of Play- Week 10.
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys
This feels like a classic NFC battle if you were a kid who grew up in the 90s: Deion Sanders, Jerry Rice, Emmitt Smith, Steve Young, Troy Aikman. From 1992-1995, those were the teams winning Super Bowls! Since then, neither of them has won and Dallas hasn’t been back to the NFC title game! Ok, enough nostalgia!
We have a tale of two different play styles in this one: Dallas games have combined for the 4th most plays per game in the NFL while the 49ers sit at 27th. We also have the Cowboys shifting down as of late going from #1 in pass rate over expectation through the 1st six weeks of the season to 23rd since Week 7. They’ve sustained long drives (tied for #1 in plays per drives) but the results aren’t always thrilling. The 49ers are a juggernaut as their offensive efficiency (#1 in yards per play, #1 in EPA per play) can overcome some of their overall play volume. Let this give you some perspective: Dallas has run 105 more plays and played one more game than the 49ers yet scored 3 fewer TDs. The difference? Dallas has had to settle for 22 field goal attempts compared to San Francisco’s 10(!).
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