NFL DFS Vegas Report for Week 1
Welcome to the first installment of the Vegas Report, exclusively part of the DFS Pass. The goal of this article each week is to identify which games are most likely to provide the scoring environment we’re looking for in order to build game stacks in DFS. Similarly, this article will look at games that may either disappoint or are less likely to result in fantasy success.
On the surface, it sounds simple, but there’s more to this process than simply logging into a sportsbook and picking the games with the highest total. We need to be conscious of which games are likely to be most popular for DFS, which may be undervalued, and those that have more downside than the market perceives.
Note: Lines Taken Below From DraftKings Sportsbook and Accurate at Time of Publishing
Top 5 Team Implied Totals in Week 1
Fantasy points are most strongly correlated to team implied totals (how many points Vegas expects each team to score). As a result, it makes sense to look at players from the following teams, especially in cash games. This does not necessarily mean these are automatically the best games to stack in tournaments. More on that soon.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (29.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
2. Tennessee Titans (27.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
3. Buffalo Bills (27.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Green Bay Packers (27.0) @ New Orleans Saints
5. San Francisco 49ers (26.5) @ Detroit Lions
Bottom 5 Team Implied Totals in Week 1
Given the strong correlation between implied totals and fantasy success, players on the following teams could consider being faded, especially if they are likely to carry elevated roster percentage in tournaments. In cash games, it likely makes the most sense to look elsewhere.
1. Chicago Bears (18.5) @ Los Angeles Rams
2. Detroit Lions (19.0) vs. San Francisco 49ers
3. New York Giants (19.5) vs. Denver Broncos
4. New York Jets (19.5) @ Carolina Panthers
5. Miami Dolphins (20.5) @ New England Patriots
Popular Game Stacks
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs; KC -6, O/U: 53.0
The Chiefs open the 2021 season in a rematch of the AFC Divisional Round game last season in which the Chiefs squeaked by the Browns 22-17. Given the popularity around the Chiefs and the hype surrounding the Browns in 2021, this game is likely to be a fixture in many DFS lineups for good reason. This game features the highest over/under on the Week 1 Main Slate, and the Chiefs carry the largest implied team total at a whopping 29.5 points.
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