NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 10 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. In 2020, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.0)- O/U: 55.0
This game profiles as the #1 pace-up spot for the week. While Dallas might be running the ball 41 percent of the time with the ninth highest expected points added per rush attempt, their efficiency throwing the ball is what sets them apart. Last week they fell flat against Denver last week where you began to question if Dak Prescott was truly prepared to be reinserted into NFL action. Regardless, this is a spot you want to go back to them against an Atlanta defense with the lowest pressure rate, sack rate, and highest percentage of clean pockets (70.7%) in the league. If Dak Prescott has time to throw, he’s been money in 2021. He’s thrown for 16 TDs in a clean pocket (3rd most in NFL) and his aDOT spikes to 8.5. Ezekiel Elliott is an obvious cash play but I’m confident in a discounted Dak in cash and as a double stack for GPPs. Amari Cooper will be the more popular play but don’t count out Ceedee Lamb. I like his matchup better in the slot and with Michael Gallup presumably back, Lamb might have even more room for some YAC this week.