NFL DFS First Look at Salaries & Matchups for Week 16 (Fantasy Football)
Every week the First Look article gives you a taste of the slate and some of the more intriguing salaries that DraftKings and FanDuel release. The goal is to identify early-week cash game considerations, as well as potential tournament plays before we piece together the stacking options. On Tuesdays, I share some of these insights on the Fantasy Footballers DFS & Betting Podcast if you want further commentary on some of the salary standouts.
Check back later in the week when Matthew Betz and I share our official DraftKings and FanDuel picks for cash and GPPs exclusively in the DFS Pass.
Here are the games for this week’s main slate* including team-implied totals (TIP) for each matchup.
Overview
For newcomers, the main slate for DFS includes the Sunday early (1:00 EST) and afternoon games (4:00 EST). At first glance, here are a couple of things to note:
- ChristmasFootball.com is making its annual appearance in our lives. With 3-games on Christmas, a Thursday night, two Saturday games, and a Christmas Evening game, perhaps it is best to see who is NOT on this slate.
- Big Names Off the Main Slate:
- QB- Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy
- RB- CMC, Kyren Williams, James Cook, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley
- WR– Eagles, Rams, 49ers, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Davante Adams
- TE– Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Isaiah Likely
- With only nine games on the main slate, the pool of players is smaller than you might realize especially at the RB position. It gets thin pretty quickly.
- We do have a 50+ point game as DAL/MIA profiles as the best game environment on the slate. However, keep in mind how 50+ point games have been cursed this year with 10/11 hitting the under on their closing line.
👴: hey kids, remember that one time we hit the over in 2023… https://t.co/nHnTDOhtSe pic.twitter.com/Xl0BjHbYiu
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) December 18, 2023
Quarterbacks
- Dak Prescott ($7900) & Tua Tagovailoa ($7800) are appropriately priced as the top QBs on this slate in the best game environment for scoring. However, we’ve also seen these QBs fall flat in juicy spots and their stacking options are quite pricey. However, they are in the upper echelon of QB performance regardless of what coverage is thrown at them.
Using the new @nflfastR data, here's a look at QB EPA per play against man and zone coverages (does not yet include MNF stats): pic.twitter.com/w60HNemwNW
— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) December 19, 2023
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