Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 5
Welcome to the Week 5 edition of the Expected Fantasy Points & Opportunity article!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to identify the most valuable players at each position. While volume is crucial in fantasy football, we have to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s fantasy value will vary significantly depending on their usage and offensive ecosystem. To account for those variables, Expected Fantasy Points will quantify each player’s projected fantasy value, based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. Heavily driven by efficiency, this value highlights the portion of a player’s fantasy production that is subject to weekly regression.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production by volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with higher usage values (xFP) are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on efficiency (FPOE) are much more volatile. In other words, we want to target players who rank highly in Expected Fantasy Points!
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution against investing in too many players who average a higher FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
- xFP becomes more predictive as the season progresses. The more data points we have available, the more stable and reliable the metric becomes week over week.
If you are new to this series, check out my full series primer, where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- While there were concerns that Blake Corum would take on a larger share of the Rams’ backfield opportunities, the last four weeks have proven that Kyren Williams remains the clear RB1 for Los Angeles. Through four games, Williams averages a 30.3% opportunity share, a 16% target share, and a 56% route participation. His 16.1 Expected Fantasy Points places him at RB8 this season, while Blake Corum is only the RB45 with a 6.4 usage value. If this backfield split continues into Week 5, Williams should be locked in as an RB1 against a Bills defense that ranks as a top-five matchup in EPA per Play (0.01), Success Rate (46.1), and fantasy points (24.0) allowed to the RB position.
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