Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 3
Welcome to the Week 3 edition of the Expected Fantasy Points & Opportunity article!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to identify the most valuable players at each position. While volume is crucial in fantasy football, we have to remember that not every opportunity is created equal, and a player’s fantasy value can vary significantly based on usage and offensive ecosystem. To account for those variables, Expected Fantasy Points will quantify each player’s projected fantasy value, based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. Heavily driven by efficiency, this value highlights the portion of a player’s fantasy production that is subject to weekly regression.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production by volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with higher usage values (xFP) are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on efficiency (FPOE) are much more volatile. In other words, we want to target players who rank highly in Expected Fantasy Points!
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution against investing in too many players who average a higher FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
- xFP becomes more predictive as the season progresses. The more data points we have available, the more stable and reliable the metric becomes week over week.
If you are new to this series, check out my full series primer, where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- Kenneth Walker has been nothing short of elite to start his tenure with the Kansas City Chiefs. In his first two games, he leads all RBs in Opportunity Share (46.7%) and Expected Fantasy Points (23.7), operating as a focal point of the Chiefs’ offense. In addition, while he is only averaging a 46% route participation, his 33% Targets per Route Run ranks RB3 on the season, behind only Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey. In short, Walker’s versatile usage should lead to plenty of fantasy points going forward. And even if Emmett Johnson’s involvement in the offense improves, Walker could realistically lose 25% of his usage value and still rank as a top-5 RB this season. As a result, Walker will have one of the safest floors and highest ceilings in Week 3, facing a Dolphins defense that has allowed the fifth-highest EPA per Play to RBs this season. Johnson also holds some appeal as a potential dart throw in a favorable matchup, considering the Chiefs are projected to win by over 12 points.
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