DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: PIT -5,5
Total: 44.5
Team Totals: Steelers (25.0), Bengals (19.5)
Game Outlook
Week 7 in the NFL kicks off on Thursday night with the ‘Icy Hot Bowl’ with two elder statesmen under center for each team. This meeting between Aaron Rodgers (41) and Joe Flacco (40) is the second oldest QB matchup of all-time behind only Tom Brady and Drew Brees in 2020. These two teams are trending in opposite directions as the Bengals have lost four straight while the AFC North leaders have won three straight en route to a 4-1 record to start the 2025 season. Let’s start on the Pittsburgh side of things here. Through Week 6, the Steelers are 15th in pass rate over expectation (PROE), throwing at a 57% rate when games are within one score. When playing with a lead this year of at least a field goal, their pass rate does drop noticeably to just 47%. The Bengals don’t have a clear weakness defensively, ranking bottom-10 in just about every metric, so I suspect Rodgers and Arthur Smith will utilize a balanced attack when the game is close then shift run heavy if they’re able to cover the 5.5-point spread.
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