DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 4 (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: DAL -6
Total: 45.0
Team Totals: Cowboys (25.5), Giants (19.5)
Game Outlook
Week 4 kicks off with an NFC East showdown between the Cowboys and G-Men when the ‘Boys travel to MetLife on Thursday in a game featuring a solid 45-point total with Dallas favored by six points. It’s early in the year, but it already feels like do or die time for the 1-2 Cowboys after they’ve lost two straight games. Fortunately for them, they’ve won six straight games against the Giants going back to 2021. Through three games, Dallas’ defense has been a train wreck, ranking 28th in EPA per play while allowing 6.0 yards per play (28th). More specifically, their run defense has been non-existent with Dallas allowing the most rushing TDs and the fourth-most total rushing yards allowed through three games over the last decade. I bring this up not only to highlight Devin Singletary (more on him below) but to point out how the Giants offense might choose to attack Dallas on Thursday night at home. Through three weeks, opponents are running on the Cowboys at the third-highest rate. Meanwhile, the Giants have skewed run first, ranking 19th in pass rate over expectation and 23rd in neutral pass rate. As a TD underdog, they could be forced to drop back Daniel Jones more than they’d like, but as long as the scoreboard allows, I expect the G Men to try to lean on their run game in a dream matchup.
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