DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 17 (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: NYJ -7.5
Total: 35.0
Team Totals: Browns (21.5), Jets (13.5)
Game Outlook
Championship weekend in fantasy land kicks off on Thursday night in a matchup featuring Joe Flacco and Trevor Siemian…just like we all thought it would be back in August when we drafted our teams. The Jets travel to Cleveland as a 7.5-point road underdog in a game featuring a lowly 35 point total that is already down to 34.5 points in some spots. On paper, this one should feel like December football in Cleveland on a Thursday night.
Let’s start this conversation on the Browns side of the ball. #LetFlaccoCook Szn is here, folks. The Cleveland Browns with 38-year-old Flacco off the couch rank third in pass rate over expectation (PROE) over the last month of the season, and in his four starts, the Elite one is averaging 43.8 pass attempts per game. We’ll have a real tug of war situation on our hands here as opponents this season against the Jets have decided to avoid their secondary and run the ball at the NFL’s highest rate when games are within one score. While I think it’s possible we could see the attempts come down a little bit, I also think it’s reasonable to expect Cleveland to stick with the pass given their offensive line injuries and inability to run the ball successfully. Over the last month, the Browns rank 26th in EPA per rush attempt with their top two RBs averaging a combined 3.05 YPC. It’s also notable that even when the Browns have led by 7+ points with Flacco under center, their pass rate has only dropped from 64% in neutral situations to 60% with a TD lead. We could easily see an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” offensive approach from Cleveland on Thursday night, even in a difficult matchup.
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