DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 12 (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: PIT -3.5
Total: 36.5
Team Totals: Steelers (20.0), Browns (16.5)
Game Outlook
Week 12 kicks off with perhaps the most ‘Thursday Night Fotball’ setup of all time – Pittsburgh at Cleveland in the elements with a game total currently sitting at just 36 points. For context, no other game in Week 12 has a total below 39.5 as of this writing, so this one could be an old school slugfest. If you’re into 1998 football, this game could be for you. Fortunately, we have DFS to help us get through this lovely three hour viewing experiencing on Thursday Night.
PIT (-3.5) @ CLE- 36.5 O/U
The Steelers' 20-point team implied total is the LOWEST over the last decade for an 8+ win team at this point in the season.
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) November 20, 2024
Let’s start on the Pittsburgh side of things in this matchup. They’re 3.5-point road favorites in this spot, and we now have a four-game sample with Russell Wilson under center for Arthur Smith. In Russ starts, the Steelers are dropping back at just a 49% clip when games are within one score, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL. Even last week when the Steelers played the NFL’s biggest pass funnel defense in Baltimore, Arthur Smith was still hesitant to fully lean into the pass game. With some weather concerns here (more on that in a bit) and Pittsburgh favored, if they’re able to get out to a lead, we should see a ton of handoffs. When playing with a lead of 7+ points this year, the Steelers have all but abandoned the pass, throwing at just a 38% rate in these scenarios.
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