DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 11 (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: BAL -4
Team Totals: Ravens (25.0), Bengals (21.0)
Week 11 kicks off with an exciting Thursday night matchup between AFC North foes when the Bengals travel to M&T Bank Stadium for a divisional matchup against the Ravens. This one should be awesome as both teams look to make a push for the post-season in a difficult AFC. It was a slow start to the season for Burrow and the Bengals, but they’re trending in the right direction in recent weeks. Offensively, this team’s identity is clear: Throw, throw, throw. Through 10 weeks of the NFL season, the Bengals rank second in the NFL in neutral pass rate, throwing at a 64% clip when games are within one score. On the year, they also rank #1 in pass rate over expectation (+9.5%). Now on the road as a four-point underdog, we shouldn’t expect that to change at all. It’s also worth pointing out that the Bengals have dialed up their pass rate to a league-leading 73% when trailing by at least a FG this year. If this Vegas spread is correct, we should expect Burrow to be dropping back over and over again on Thursday night.