DFS Monday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 1 (Fantasy Football)
Our beloved Monday Night Football is BACK. Week 1 brings a rivalry matchup in the NFC North, and we want to see the FootClan taking down those Showdown tournaments on DraftKings. If you’re serious about winning and need a refresher, check out these resources:
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: MIN -1.5
Total: 43.5
Team Totals: Vikings (22.5), Bears (21)
Game Outlook
The betting market has been steady on this one with Minnesota sitting as a small road favorite all week (-1.5), but what’s really interesting is how the money has come in. While 62% of the tickets are on the Vikings, a whopping 78% of the money is backing the Bears. The total has bounced between 43.5 and 44.5, settling at 44 as of Sunday evening, which tells us books expect a competitive game but not a total track meet. Translation: this is shaping up as a coin-flip divisional showdown under the lights.
For DAAAA Bears, the most significant difference should be competency on offense. With Ben Johnson calling plays, this unit hopes to be functional and create the magic the Lions had with him at OC the last few years. On Sunday, Detroit’s offense fell out of the awful tree and hit every branch on the way down. Does that mean Ben Johnson is really that good, and Chicago has a 4,000-yard and/or 30-TD QB for the first time – ever?
Minnesota, on the other hand, is all about volume through the air. Kevin O’Connell’s track record is fantastic: his teams have gone 34 – 17 over the past three seasons, built on a pass-heavy approach that doesn’t change based on who’s under center. Now it’s J.J. McCarthy’s turn, and while he may “technically” be a rookie, O’Connell’s system will let him sling it.
Injuries/Out
- Roschon Johnson (Q, foot)
- Jordan Addison (Suspension)
Top Captain Plays
Justin Jefferson $10,800
Jefferson enters Week 1 as the most expensive player on the slate and for good reason: just a sweet 24 DK point projection. No biggie. At this price, he’s the transparent alpha in terms of raw projection. The challenge, as always, is ownership. With 25.62% at CPT and 47.18% at FLEX, you’ll need to think about lineup construction when clicking. In large-field GPPs, he’ll be the chalk build-around, but fading Jefferson entirely is a high-risk approach given his projection is nearly EIGHT (yes, 8!) points higher than every other player, including QBs. Even with that price tag, it makes sense to have him spearhead your DFS attack and adjust elsewhere if the game script follows the Vegas line movement of a close matchup.
Stack Idea: Captain Jefferson + J.J. McCarthy, bring back any four Bears in hopes the Vikings’ targets all funnel to the alpha.
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