DFS Monday Night Football: DraftKings for Week 4 (Fantasy Football)
SNF was awesome, so that means we get another high-scoring game tonight! Right? Hopefully.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning Showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat Showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: NO -1.5
Total: 47.5
Team Totals: NO 24, ATL 23.5
Game Outlook
I understand the renewed faith in ATL after Penix threw for 256 yards on 25 attempts against GB, especially when this offense went its first two games without reaching the red zone. The price on NO -1.5 has moved toward even money, showing more support for ATL, but the over has also become cheaper at 47.5, so I am not treating that as a signal to expect a shootout. ATL’s third-ranked zone running game gets NO’s 29th-ranked defense against it, giving Bijan a clear path to keep this offense moving. I expect ATL to lean into that matchup, with Penix extending drives and getting London involved without needing to throw it 40 times.
NO’s RB room is already banged up, with Travis Etienne joining Ty Chandler on IR and Kamara and Kendre Miller expected to handle most of the work, while rookie CJ Donaldson remains involved. That is a tough assignment against ATL’s third-ranked rushing defense by EPA, which puts more of my confidence in Shough and Olave keeping NO competitive through the air. ATL missing A.J. Terrell gives NO another reason to attack that way, so I expect passing volume even if the score stays close. My preferred script is a close ATL win with Bijan sustaining drives and NO answering through its passing game, although an early NO lead that forces Penix into obvious passing situations is the biggest threat to that forecast.
Injury Report
NO
- TE Noah Fant (abdomen) Q
- LB Pete Werner Q
- LB Kaden Elliss (calf) OUT
- LB Carl Granderson (ankle) OUT
- LB Anfernee Jennings (knee) OUT
ATL
- LB Divine Deablo (hamstring) Q
Top CPT Plays
*Normally I stick to three captains, but this slate offers four solid options. Each will tell a different story and can help you differentiate.
Bijan Robinson $17,700
Bijan has drawn 15 targets through three games, giving him another way to deliver a ceiling even when Brian Robinson takes a few carries. I want him at CPT when ATL keeps drives moving on the ground, and Bijan finishes them. London can still come along, but I do not need to force Penix into a build that bets on Bijan collecting the TDs.
Stack Idea: Bijan CPT + London + Shough + Juwan Johnson
Chris Olave $16,200
Olave is averaging nine catches per game, which gives us plenty of PPR production to build around at CPT. I want him here when NO keeps this competitive through the air and the receiving TDs finally land with its top WR. Shough comes with him, and Bijan is my preferred bring-back if ATL continues finding success on the ground.
Stack Idea: Olave CPT + Shough + Bijan
Drake London $15,000
London is my favorite CPT pivot at roughly 11.5% projected ownership. He accounted for 50% of the first-read targets in Penix’s start, and I am betting that connection carries into this matchup. I want Penix alongside him and a NO receiver coming back in builds where London gets the biggest share of ATL’s passing production.
Stack Idea: London CPT + Penix, with Olave + Kamara coming back
Tyler Shough $14,400
Shough’s 35.5 passing-attempt line fits my expectation that NO will need its passing game to do more of the work. At CPT, I want the version where he throws multiple TDs and spreads them out enough that one receiver does not run away with the fantasy production. I would generally pair him with two pass catchers, using Bijan or London on the other side to keep the game moving.
Stack Idea: Shough CPT + Olave + Vele, with Bijan coming back
Top FLEX Plays
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Michael Penix Jr. $9,000
I want Penix in my London stacks, especially when I am betting on ATL finishing drives through the air. ATL scored 35 points against GB with Penix throwing just one TD, which shows how easily the RBs can do most of the scoring. If I am building around Bijan controlling the game, I am comfortable spending that QB salary on NO’s passing pieces instead.
Stack Idea: London CPT + Penix + Olave + Pitts
Alvin Kamara $7,000
Kamara has six catches in two games, giving him a way to contribute if ATL makes rushing difficult. Etienne going to IR creates room for more work, but Miller and Donaldson are still part of this backfield. I want Kamara in builds where NO sustains drives through short throws, and he gets a chance to finish one near the goal line.
Stack Idea: Bijan CPT + Kamara + Shough + Lance
Devaughn Vele $7,800
Vele has drawn 22 targets through three games and is projected for roughly 17% FLEX ownership. I like him in Shough builds where I leave Olave out and bet on NO’s secondary receivers collecting the TDs. I would pair him with Johnson in that version of the game and use Bijan for ATL’s response.
Stack Idea: Shough CPT + Vele + Johnson, with Bijan coming back
Weird Purgatory Play of the Day
Bryce Lance $1,800
He is not safe enough to recommend as a FLEX, but too owned to be a GPP play. Lance has eight targets on 103 routes through three games, which is a lot of cardio for a player carrying roughly 26% projected FLEX ownership. At $1,800, a couple of catches can still be enough if the studs around him hit, so I will use him selectively without confusing salary relief with leverage.
I like London at CPT with Penix and Shough, using Lance to help fund that passing build and looking for another ownership pivot in the final two spots. When I fade Lance, I want to spend up for a better receiving role and rework the expensive pieces around it, because swapping him for another receiver who barely sees the ball does not improve my lineup just by lowering ownership.
Stack Idea: London CPT + Penix + Shough + Lance
GPP Leverage Plays
Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
Juwan Johnson $7,400
Juwan has five targets inside the 10 through three games, giving us an established scoring role to attack while NO sorts through its depleted backfield. I like him as the NO bring-back in London CPT builds, betting on ATL’s top WR doing the damage and NO answering through its TE. Olave can still collect catches between the 20s while Juwan gets the throws that decide which receiver we need.
Stack Idea: London CPT + Penix, with Juwan coming back
Kendre Miller $5,000
Miller had just four carries in the previous game, but HC Moore has named him alongside Kamara as the backs expected to handle the work with Etienne out. At roughly half of Kamara’s projected FLEX ownership, I will take Miller in builds that leave Kamara out and bet on the cheaper RB collecting a rushing TD. I prefer that bet in a close game where NO can keep its ground game involved.
Stack Idea: Bijan CPT + Miller + Olave
Noah Fant $4,400
Fant remains questionable with an abdominal injury, so this play is contingent on him being active. He has drawn 12 targets on 42 routes through three games, an encouraging target rate within a limited role. At roughly 6% projected FLEX ownership, I like him with Shough and Olave when NO’s TDs come through the air, using Bijan for ATL’s response. This is the exact type of play I like making bets on in large field.
Stack Idea: Shough CPT + Olave + Fant, with Bijan coming back
Brian Robinson Jr. $3,800
Brian handled 10 carries in Penix’s first start, giving him enough involvement to stay on my tournament list. I like him alongside London and Penix in builds that leave Bijan out, betting on ATL’s passing game carrying the offense while Brian steals a rushing TD. This needs Bijan to fall short of a ceiling game, so I am making that bet through the entire lineup.
Stack Idea: London CPT + Penix + Brian Robinson, with Olave coming back
Jahan Dotson $3,000
Dotson ran a route on 56% of Penix’s dropbacks against GB, the highest rate among ATL’s cheap supporting WRs. He is one player I will spend extra salary on when fading Lance, especially in builds that need Penix throwing multiple TDs. London can deliver a big receiving game, and Dotson can catch another score, making him worth the extra salary.
Stack Idea: Bijan CPT + Penix + Dotson, with Olave coming back
Olamide Zaccheaus $2,000
Zaccheaus is a small-exposure pivot from Lance at roughly 11% projected FLEX ownership, although his eight routes against GB show how fragile this play can be. I would use him with Bijan at CPT, betting on ATL’s rushing TDs and a few short catches helping Zaccheaus justify his spot. London is the expensive piece I leave out in this construction, allowing me to spend on NO’s passing game.
Stack Idea: Bijan CPT + Shough + Olave + Zaccheaus
Final Thoughts/Game Theory Ideas
- Be wary of Shough at CPT in terms of pOwn. The sim bros are going to heavily follow the Projected FP metric, and Shough pops on all of those because it helps you fit him, Bijan, London, and Olave together. That four-piece will be chalky and lead to a lot of similar builds. Not saying it will not work (and I will have a few in MMEs), but I like having a unique build so I do not have to chop if things go right. Over the long run- and I mean loonnnngggg run- that is a more profitable bet.
- 5-1 continues to dominate. I will continue to be overweight since the field is still playing it under 20% of the time. Remember, you are not getting cute with 4-2: almost half of lineups in Showdowns this year are using a 4-2 build.
- Bijan’s salary will keep his ownership at bay at CPT. If you think the Falcons win this game, do not be scared to CPT him and let the chips fall as they may while fading one of the popular NO pieces.
- Remember, players can suck an entire game, but one play can be all you need for Showdown. In large field, get uncomfortable with a name or two in your lineups.