Trade Targets & Ammo for Week 12 and beyond (Fantasy Football)
As trade deadlines are nearing (or passed), this will be the last Trade Targets & Ammo article of the season. I wish you all the best of luck in pushing through last-minute trades if you still have time!
If you’re a contender, I recommend putting your foot on the gas by looking for opportunities to beef up your team. While you shouldn’t completely ruin your 2020 season, I think it’s worth taking calculated risks to go after the championship. For example, I just traded TJ Hockenson and my 2020 third-rounder for Mark Andrews and a 2020 fifth-rounder to fill out my roster and be a strong contender (…Andrews also has strong keeper value in this league). The goal is a title after all, isn’t it?
If you’re likely out of the playoffs (i.e. < 5% chance), I recommend trading players for future draft picks, keepers, etc. I also think there is a huge advantage for the first owner who decides to host a fire sale. You will probably get more offers and higher quality offers if you have a wider audience of league mates who have full pockets.
As always, the following players represent my personal trade targets and trade ammo pieces. It always helps to test the waters for player value, but don’t force trades folks! Happy trading.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR Browns
Listen, I get it. He’s been a big disappointment. He’s also had an incredibly challenging schedule. Since Week 5, here are his opposing defense rankings versus the WR (pts given up to opposing WR): 6, 17, 1, 4, 7, 16. Brown faces the Dolphins in Week 12. He also plays the Bengals twice and the Cardinals once in the next several weeks. Mayfield has been improving, so why not take a shot at one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL? What if Mayfield and Odell can finally connect in the fantasy playoffs? And if not…well Odell is cheap, so you’re not taking a big risk by buying him and stashing him as your WR3 or WR4.
Jamison Crowder, WR Jets
Crowder is tied with Tyreek Hill at WR4 overall over the last three weeks. He also has a touchdown in each of those weeks. While the touchdown streak is unlikely to continue, he has been Sam Darnold’s favorite target recently. He has 23 targets in the last three weeks compared to Demaryius at 17 and Robby Anderson at 10. I admit this is the second time I’ve advised fantasy players to go after a Jets WR…and the first time didn’t go so well. However, you can probably buy Crowder on the cheap and stash him as a depth piece. I like Crowder in the type of trade where he’s the second piece (sneaky).
Leonard Fournette, RB Jaguars
Fournette has been a stud this season, far exceeding most of our preseason expectations. He’s had a dip in production in the past couple of weeks. From Week 1 to Week 8, he only had one game under 10 fantasy points. In his last two appearances, he scored under 10 points both times. He also has a clear backup that should provide decent production if he gets injured, so he comes with an insurance plan. Few other top tier fantasy players come with a cheap insurance plan. Furthermore, Foles will likely be an improvement in the offense compared to Minshew. If you can buy Fournette at back-end RB1 value because the owner is spooked, I’d do it. I know this trade target is obvious and it’s unlikely for the owner to get spooked after two weeks, but it’s still worth mentioning.
Jordan Howard, RB Eagles
Howard has received an average of 16 touches per game since Week 4 and rushed for over 4 yards per carry (ypc) every week but one. He had 19 carries and 23 carries over the previous two weeks that he played. Miles Sanders disappointed last week in the starting role and certainly didn’t win the starting job. Howard may not play Week 12, but if you are playoff-bound…I think he’s a nice depth piece (as your RB3 or RB4) that has huge upside. He also plays the Giants and Redskins in the fantasy playoffs.
James Conner, RB Steelers
This is a risky call, I’ll admit it. Similar to Howard, Conner could be a nice depth piece (as your RB3 or RB4) for playoff-bound teams. The downside is that he could reinjure his shoulder at any time and be forced to exit a game. The upside is that he could produce high-end RB1 numbers if he finishes a game. Excluding Week 11 when he left the game early, he scored over 22 fantasy points in three of his four prior starts. Conner has been in and out of injury all season…but I like the idea of adding him on the cheap. When he starts, he has a significantly higher upside than anyone else that can be purchased at his current price. This call is for risk-takers like myself.
Josh Allen, QB Bills
ESPN ranks Josh as the QB6 in total fantasy points. He is coming off a monster game (33.8 pts) after an awesome performance the previous week (25.4 pts). He’s been super consistent this season, and I love watching play…but from a fantasy standpoint, he’s still a streamer. Here is his upcoming schedule: DEN (3rd fewest pts given up to opposing QB), @DAL (9th), BAL (6th), @PIT (10th), @NE (1st). He’s only faced a defense that was top-14 (vs fantasy QB) once. He scored 8.7 pts that week.
Are you really going to play him in the playoffs? Especially championship weekend versus New England in New England? While he always has the tools and ability to blow up on any given week, I don’t see a single game rest of season that I feel comfortable starting him. For that reason, I would trade Allen for literally anything if you can (and if your league is conducive for streaming QBs).
John Brown, WR Bills
(See Josh Allen above). John Brown has been great, and I get that this is an unpopular opinion…but I think he’ll struggle with his upcoming schedule: DEN (4th fewest pts given up to opposing WR), @DAL (3rd), BAL (14th), @PIT (16th), @NE (1st). He should be fine the first two weeks of the playoffs, but I know that I wouldn’t start him in a tough away game versus New England on Championship weekend. If you can trade him for a similarly valued player with a better playoff schedule, I’d do it…especially coming off a big week for Brown.
Cooper Kupp, WR Rams
As outlined in Aaron Larson’s Week 11 Target Report…After averaging 10.9 targets per game through the first eight weeks, Kupp has seen a massive drop off and only been targeted seven times in the two games following the Rams bye week.
I do expect the Rams to be a little better on offense over the next few weeks, but I’d trade Kupp for another WR1 with a better playoff schedule. Kupp’s playoff schedule: SEA (16th fewest pts given up to opposing WR), @DAL (3rd), @SF (6th). Kupp is not a “must-sell”, but you might find a league mate who values him closer to the WR1 overall that he was at the beginning of the season.