NFL Week 16 Weather Conditions (Fantasy Football)

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I normally don’t pay much attention to weather forecasts several days before games because forecasts can change so quickly, but a very powerful bomb cyclone is playing havoc across large parts of the northeast. The result is temperatures below freezing in eight games. Of those games, sustained winds in Chicago, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh will be over 15 mph creating sub-zero windchills. Even games in Nashville, Baltimore, Kansas City, and Carolina will be miserably cold and breezy. If you haven’t already, pick up a kicker that will be playing in a dome, San Francisco, or Miami this weekend.

Between injuries and weather, this week’s top players will likely include some very interesting names. If your team happens to survive all this madness, the silver lining is abnormally high temperatures that should set in midweek across the areas affected by the bomb cyclone. Good luck, stay warm, and be safe this holiday weekend.

Any updates to the forecasts will be posted and here on twitter and immediately below so check back in leading up to each slate of kickoffs.

Updates:

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 24th, 2022

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears

1:00 PM ET // Soldier Field // Chicago, Illinois

Temp: 10°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 21 mph
Wind Gusts: 38 mph

Fantasy Impact: Well, this is less than ideal. Somehow 10° doesn’t seem very extreme in a week with several games played in frigid temperatures, but when combined with the wind we’re looking at a windchill of -16°.

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As we saw last week, Josh Allen is weather proof. If the weather is bad enough to make passing difficult, he simply turns to his legs. Like last week, Stefon Diggs is still a must start but he becomes more of a high-end flex player than the usual plug-and-play WR1. Dawson Knox turned in a solid performance last week despite the weather. He’s still worth a start, but Knox’s usage tends to ebb and flow on a week-to-week basis. The RB committee in Buffalo has been frustrating to deal with and has thus far offered very little fantasy value, though Devin Singletary is consistently seeing around 15 touches each week and should see a decent workload in this game.

The Dolphins were able to run all over Buffalo’s defense last week and we can expect Chicago to try and do the same thing in this game. David Montgomery should get all the volume he can handle in tandem with Khalil Herbert who just came off of IR. Herbert was handling between a 22-41% snap share when both RBs were healthy and we can probably expect a similar snap split. Justin Fields has rushed for 60 or more yards in each of his last eight games. We can probably expect more of the same with extremely difficult conditions to get anything going in the pass game. Unless the Bears are absolutely forced to abandon the run because of gamescript, I don’t see Fields attempting more than 20 passes or approaching 200 yards passing. Fields’ value will come almost solely from his rushing ability but given the matchup and conditions, that should lead to a safe floor and high ceiling for fantasy purposes.

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens

1:00 PM ET // M&T Bank Stadium // Baltimore, Maryland

Temp: 16°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 14 mph
Wind Gusts: 25 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

1:00 PM ET // Bank of America Stadium // Charlotte, North Carolina

Temp: 21°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 10 mph
Wind Gusts: 15 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

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Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs

1:00 PM ET // GEHA Field At Arrowhead Stadium // Kansas City, Missouri

Temp: 16°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 13 mph
Wind Gusts: 17 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns

1:00 PM ET // FirstEnergy Stadium // Cleveland, Ohio

Temp: 12°
Precipitation: Flurries
Wind: 31 mph
Wind Gusts: 46 mph

Fantasy Impact: These weather conditions may be the worst I’ve ever seen. The Buffalo vs New England wind game where Mac Jones threw three total times had sustained winds of 26 mph for reference.  Neither of these teams is going to be able to pass effectively meaning Deshaun Watson and Andy Dalton should be on benches even in superflex leagues. The same goes for all pass-catchers including Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Obviously, Nick Chubb is in an ideal spot and Kareem Hunt should mix in enough to offer some appeal for teams desperate for a starter.

The Saints simply need to figure out how to get Alvin Kamara going with David Johnson and Eno Benjamin as the other two RBs on the Saints roster. Kamara has eclipsed 100 yards rushing only once this year and hasn’t topped 50 yards receiving since Week 8. This game will look ugly from a weather standpoint, but could get ugly quickly on the scoreboard if the Saints can’t find a way to sustain drives.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

1:00 PM ET // Nissan Stadium / / Nashville, Tennessee

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Temp: 19°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 12 mph
Wind Gusts: 18 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots

1:00 PM ET // Gillette Stadium // Foxboro, Massachusetts

Temp: 18°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 13 mph
Wind Gusts: 18 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers

4:05 PM ET // Levi’s Stadium // Santa Clara, California

Temp: 59°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 2 mph
Wind Gusts: 3 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

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Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers

8:15 PM ET // Acrisure Field // Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Temp: 10°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 16 mph
Wind Gusts: 35 mph

Fantasy Impact: Derek Carr has only played in seven games in “cold” games defined as 21-40°. His completion percentage drops to 56.5% along with an average of only 229 yards passing per game. He owns a pedestrian eight TDs compared to seven interceptions over those seven games. Given that this game is going to be significantly colder and breezy, we can assume the Raiders will lean on their run game early and often. This bolds well for Josh Jacobs who continues to blow away expectations, but hurts all the Raider receivers including Davante Adams and Darren Waller. There’s no chance Adams should be on a bench, but a week-winning performance is not likely.

Kenny Pickett looks set to return against the Raiders following last week’s early exit due to a concussion and he’s accustomed to colder weather after five seasons playing at Pitt, but the rookie has struggled while not offering much of anything for fantasy purposes. Despite Pickett’s struggles, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens have been able to put up WR3-WR4 type numbers, but they should probably be left out of starting lineups this week. Pat Freiermuth should also be left out of starting lineups, especially following last week’s goose egg in targets. Najee Harris will get all the touches he can handle and even Jaylen Warren may offer some flex appeal with double-digit touches a near guarantee.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 25th, 2022

Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins

1:00 PM ET // Hard Rock Stadium // Miami Gardens, Florida

Temp: 54°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 10 mph
Wind Gusts: 15 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 24th, 2022 – DOME GAMES

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings

1:00 PM ET // U.S. Bank Stadium // Minneapolis, Minnesota

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

4:25 PM ET // AT&T Stadium // Dallas, Texas

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 25th, 2022 – DOME GAMES

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Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams

4:30 PM ET // SoFi Stadium // Los Angeles, California

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals

8:20 PM ET // State Farm Stadium // Glendale, Arizona

MONDAY, DECEMBER 26th, 2022 – DOME GAMES

Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts

8:15 PM ET //  Lucas Oil Stadium // Indianapolis, Indiana 

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