Hot or Not: Early Schedule Winners and Losers (Fantasy Football)
Last week, the Ballers dropped their annual 10 Tips and Tricks to Win Your League episode. One of the most underrated was Mike’s “Hot or Not” tip, looking at players with tougher or easier schedules to start the season. Fantasy managers tend to panic too quickly when things do not go smoothly right out of the gate. Sometimes, getting off to a hot start is as simple as targeting players with layup matchups, then deciding whether to ride the production or sell before the schedule turns. So Mike got me thinking, and now writing, about which players are set up for success or failure early in the season.
For this exercise, I looked at Weeks 1-4. Of course, strength of schedule (SOS) is imperfect. Rosters change, rookies arrive, coaching staffs turn over, and defenses rarely look exactly like they did the year before.
This also is not a reason to draft a HOT player over a stud on the NOT list. Think of early SOS as a tiebreaker between players in the same ADP range, and maybe a clue about who could become an early-season sell-high or buy-low candidate.
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QBs
HOT: Jaxson Dart | ADP: QB11
Early SOS: The Easiest | Weeks 1-4: DAL, @LAR, TEN, ARI
Dart is one of three QBs to rush for at least 50 yards in each of his first three starts. The other two? Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. Elite company.
Now give Dart three home games, one of the easiest opening schedules in football, and Malik Nabers back in the lineup. Dart already has the rushing floor, and his first month of games gives him a legitimate shot at being a top-tier QB.
HOT: Kyler Murray | ADP: QB17
Early SOS: Fourth Easiest | Weeks 1-4: GB, @CHI, @TB, MIA
If you waited on QB until later in the draft, Murray might be your savior. Kyler is surrounded by the best weapons of his career, and he hasn’t lost a step in terms of rushing. In 2025, Murray was on a 17-game pace for 588 rushing yards, which would have been the second-highest total of his career.
Week 1 is his toughest matchup, but after that come three consecutive top-10 matchups. At QB17, Murray is the exact late-round QB I like to start my season with.
NOT: Baker Mayfield | ADP: QB18
Early SOS: The Hardest | Weeks 1-4: @CIN, CLE, MIN, GB
Baker still has his believers, and I am one of them. After watching Quarterback, we know just how banged up he was last season, so I am expecting a bounce-back year, just not necessarily a hot start.
Since joining Tampa Bay in 2023, Baker has opened every season with at least two TDs, and we could see it again in 2026. After that, he has a brutal three-week stretch. Baker is probably a better season-long bet than a September one.
NOT: Malik Willis | ADP: QB22
Early SOS: Second Hardest | Weeks 1-4: @LV, @SF, KC, @MIN
Many people see Malik Willis and only see upside as a late-round dart throw, and I get it. He is mobile enough to create fantasy points on his own, but with a receiving group composed of WR3s and rookies, consider me a skeptic.
Now layer on the second-hardest opening schedule and a Dolphins team favored in only one game all season, and the late-round upside starts looking a lot less appealing.
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RBs
HOT: David Montgomery | ADP: RB23
Early SOS: Second Easiest | Weeks 1-4: BUF, CIN, @IND, DAL
In seven seasons, Montgomery only has two 1,000-yard rushing seasons. However, he has finished as a top-24 RB in six of them. Now he has a new team with a new deal and plenty of opportunity in front of him. I am not expecting an RB1 finish over the full season, but through the first month? David Mopportunity may be back.
HOT: Tony Pollard | ADP: RB29
Early SOS: The Easiest | Weeks 1-4: NYJ, PHI, @NYG, @BAL
Pollard has shown that he is a capable RB, stringing together four consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons, and now he gets the easiest opening schedule at the position.
He doesn’t need to be the long-term answer for your team, but if you are drafting Ashton Jeanty or Jeremiyah Love, both of whom have injury concerns going into Week 1, Pollard might be a fine plug-and-play RB2 while they heal up.
NOT: Quinshon Judkins | ADP: RB22
Early SOS: Fifth Hardest | Weeks 1-4: @JAX, @TB, CAR, PIT
I am not as fearful as others about Judkins losing some passing work to Dylan Sampson. My bigger concern is the early schedule and the Browns’ ability to drive the ball down the field and give Judkins valuable touches in the red zone. In 2025, Judkins saw stacked boxes on 45% of his carries, according to Next Gen Stats. That was the highest rate in the NFL last season, and the second-highest since Next Gen Stats started tracking the stat in 2018.
That problem doesn’t get much easier against Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh in three of his first four games. Judkins may have the volume, but I am worried about the quality of those touches.
NOT: TreVeyon Henderson/Rhamondre Stevenson | ADP: RB25/RB27
Early SOS: Third Hardest | Weeks 1-4: @SEA, PIT, @JAX, @BUF
Usually I charge extra for two, but this one is on the house.
Three road games, a crowded backfield, and tough run defenses should be enough of a tiebreaker when you are on the clock during the draft. I am not saying you have to cross either player off your board, but when similarly priced RBs are available, I will look somewhere else.
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WRs
HOT: Tetairoa McMillan | ADP: WR16
Early SOS: Sixth Easiest | Weeks 1-4: CHI, @ATL, @CLE, DET
Order up! I’ve got one hot start for a second-year WR.
In 2025, TMac had a 23% target share, which led all rookie WRs. In 2026, I do not see much changing. Carolina made almost no changes to the WR room, leaving McMillan positioned to dominate targets again, and three of his first four opponents are among the friendliest matchups for WRs.
HOT: Garrett Wilson | ADP: WR19
Early SOS: Second Easiest | Weeks 1-4: @TEN, GB, @DET, @CHI
I have usually been out on Wilson because of his draft cost. Excluding his rookie season, this is the cheapest his ADP has been.
Now say what you will about Geno (we know Jason will say only nice things), but he’s better than anything the Jets had last season. The Jets threw for just 2,385 yards as a team. Geno has averaged 3,812 passing yards over the past four seasons.
Wilson is cheaper, his QB situation is better, and his early schedule is the second-easiest. This might finally be the year I’m buying.
NOT: Luther Burden III/Rome Odunze | ADP: WR25/WR27
Early SOS: 3rd Hardest | Weeks 1-4: @CAR, MIN, PHI, NYJ
I did a 2-for-1 player special earlier, but this time, you get three. It’s a tough schedule for Colston Loveland too.
I know fantasy managers have planted their flags in either the Burden or Odunze camp, but this early schedule may make it messy. It will be interesting to see who these strong defenses prioritize as the WR1.
If one of these WRs starts slowly, do not be too quick to assume you were wrong about him.
NOT: Parker Washington/Brian Thomas Jr. | ADP: WR32/WR33
Early SOS: The Hardest | Weeks 1-4: CLE, @DEN, NE, @CIN
Sir Christopher Nolan himself couldn’t write a tougher schedule for the Jaguars to start the season.
Like the Bears’ WR room, we are still trying to understand who the WR1 is in Jacksonville. Whoever it is, they have got a tough road ahead of them. A slow start from either WR may say more about the schedule than it does about Jacksonville’s actual pecking order.
Top CB matchups for the Jacksonville Jaguars through the first 8 weeks of the 2026 NFL season:
– Denzel Ward
– Pat Surtain II
– Christian Gonzalez
– DJ Turner II
– Quinyon Mitchell
– Derek Stingley Jr.
– Sauce GardnerYIKES! ⚠️ pic.twitter.com/EpFEKfnHy9
— Colt Williams (@_ColtWilliams) July 23, 2026
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TEs
HOT: Harold Fannin | ADP: TE8
Early SOS: Second Easiest | Weeks 1-4: @JAX, @TB, CAR, PIT
Fannin put up video game numbers in college, but people excused it because he played at Bowling Green. After being drafted to the Browns behind David Njoku, Fannin’s immediate future did not look promising. Despite dealing with a carousel at QB, Fannin still finished as the TE6. He also forced the second-most missed tackles among TEs, trailing only Trey McBride, according to Next Gen Stats.
The Browns have added more weapons and Njoku is gone, so it will be interesting to see if Fannin was a product of necessity or talent. I believe it is the latter, and the second-easiest opening schedule gives him a great opportunity to prove it.
HOT: Brenton Strange | ADP: TE18
Early SOS: The Easiest | Weeks 1-4: CLE, @DEN, NE, @CIN
While Jacksonville’s WRs draw the hardest opening schedule at their position, Strange gets the exact opposite.
It is really elevated by the Cincinnati matchup, but Strange is typically undrafted. If you punted TE and you are looking for an early streamer, use one of your last picks to get Strange with it.
NOT: Sam LaPorta | ADP: TE5
Early SOS: Sixth Hardest | Weeks 1-4: NO, @BUF, NYJ, @CAR
I hate to kick a guy while he is down, but I do not understand LaPorta going as the TE5. I guess somebody has to be.
He is coming off an injury and is currently banged up. LaPorta also has one of the tougher opening schedules, including games where Detroit may not need to push him. At his ADP, you are basically locked into starting him. I would rather let someone else pay the draft-day price and see if a slow start creates an opportunity to trade for him.
NOT: Juwan Johnson | ADP: TE20
Early SOS: THE hardest | Weeks 1-4: @DET, @BAL, LV, ATL
People ask, “Who is drafting Juwan Johnson?”
Well, I am… or at least I was drafting him.
With Jordyn Tyson sidelined and expected to miss two months, I figured Juwan should be the second receiving option for his former college teammate, Tyler Shough. If you are punting TE, you could do worse.
Week 1 against Detroit could still be fun. It is his easiest matchup of the month, and it’s his 30th birthday. After that, though, I am playing the matchups at TE rather than forcing Johnson into my lineup.