32 Fantasy Football Storylines to Monitor in Training Camp for 2026

We. Are. Back!

The start of NFL training camps can only mean one thing – fantasy football draft season is here! But we need to pump the brakes a little bit. Right now, we think we know what is going to happen for each team, but let’s be real – there is so much up in the air, and there is no shortage of unanswered questions. Once those questions are answered and we get some clarity over the course of training camps, draft strategies, player takes, teams to target, etc. start to come into focus.

In this article, I will highlight one fantasy-relevant storyline to monitor in training camp for each NFL franchise. From positional battles to injuries to coaching schemes, there is an edge to be had if you are up to date on what is happening in camp. Here is what I am watching for in late July and August as we prepare for our fantasy drafts. Camps open for most NFL clubs the third week of July.

Looking for more Fantasy Football Draft prep advice? Be sure to check out the award-winning 2026 Ultimate Draft Kit, which includes everything we think you need to win your league – projections, tier-based rankings, sleepers, breakouts, busts, and so much more!

Arizona Cardinals

Which WR will step up behind Trey McBride?

Arizona is a bit of a wild card team in 2026, as we have a brand-new coaching staff and a team with just a 4.5 win total (it is down to 3.5 in some spots. Pain.) Obviously, there are plenty of systemic concerns for Arizona, who has the most difficult schedule in the league this season. Trey McBride is the likely target leader here once again, but behind him, the fantasy market is split on Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Michael Wilson.

Naturally, it is easy to go back to the former fourth overall draft pick, but it has been a frustrating two seasons for Marv thus far. We have seen flashes at times, but drops, inconsistent play, and poor scheming have led to plenty of question marks entering Year 3 in the league. Through two seasons, he has posted YPRR rates of 1.58 and 1.63 while being targeted on just over 20% of his routes. Those numbers are okay for WR2s and WR3s in the NFL, but for a guy drafted inside the top-five of the NFL Draft, it is obviously not ideal.

For all the frustrations that Marv has caused fantasy managers, we do need to point out that in three full games with Brissett, he actually had a higher first-read target share than McBride. It is a small sample, so I am not sure it means much, but the target-earning ability was at least on display with a QB who was willing to stand in the pocket and deliver the rock.

Speaking of hyper-targeting a WR, Jacoby loved his guy Michael Wilson. With Marv off the field last year, Wilson’s TPRR spiked to 29%, which is an elite mark. However, with Harrison on the field, that TPRR rate dropped below 14%. I think we would all agree that as long as both guys stay healthy, the truth on Michael Wilson is probably somewhere in the middle of those two rates.

In the UDK, we are projecting the WR split like this:

• Marvin Harrison Jr. – 117 targets, 68 receptions, 936 yards, 8 TD
• Michael Wilson – 109 targets, 68 receptions, 853 yards, 5 TD

The market agrees, with Marv carrying the higher ADP, but both profile as boom/bust options for fantasy in 2026. Looking at the team-level concerns, we are obviously not expecting Arizona to score a bunch of TDs. They have the lowest average implied team total in the league. In addition, there are big-time QB concerns if/when Jacoby Brissett loses playing time to Carson Beck late in the year. Even if Jacoby miraculously holds the starting job for 17 games, we simply cannot expect the pass rate to be stable year over year.

Per ETR’s John Daigle, the 40 pass attempts Brissett averaged a year ago is a number that has been reached just 10 times in the last decade, and the only QB to repeat that mark in back-to-back years was Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. After the team signed Tyler Allgeier in free agency and drafted Jeremiyah Love third overall, we also can’t expect Jacoby Brissett to rank inside the top-five at the position in red zone pass attempts per game.

Atlanta Falcons

Who will win the QB1 job?

There is really not too much to debate with the Falcons in 2026. We know the offense is going to flow through Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. That leaves the QB room as the biggest question mark for fantasy entering the 2026 season. The Falcons went #LeftiesOnly this year, signing Tua Tagovailoa to a vet minimum deal after his tenure ended with the Dolphins and paired him up with the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Michael Penix.

Tua obviously has the more proven track record, both for fantasy and real-life NFL purposes, but he is coming off a dreadful season in Miami. Meanwhile, Penix has only started 12 games in two seasons. Who will the Falcons turn to in Week 1? Let’s dive in.

The first thing to acknowledge here is that this is a brand new regime with Kevin Stefanski in as head coach. His OC is Tommy Rees, who was with Stefanski last year in Cleveland. Despite the fact that the Falcons burned a top-10 pick on Penix, this is, at least in theory, a clean slate for both QBs under a new staff. We will start with the ‘incumbent’ in Penix, who is coming off a partially torn ACL that ended his 2025 campaign. Unfortunately, injuries have been a big headline when it comes to Penix going back to his college days. Because of his limited starts in the NFL, most are still wondering if Penix can be the guy in the short and long term for Atlanta. Since 2010, here is the list of first-round QBs with less than 15 total starts through two seasons:

Jordan Love obviously sat behind Rodgers for quite a while waiting his turn, and Matthew Stafford is a bit of a unique case given that he got hurt during his second season in the league. Otherwise, that list is…not ideal. Historically speaking, the chances of Penix figuring it out and turning his career around aren’t great. Through 12 career starts, he has thrown multiple TD passes just three times, and across those starts, he is averaging just 226 pass yards per game with a career 3.1% TD rate. No bueno. He has missed part of the offseason program but did participate in a limited capacity in mini camp. We will see if the Falcons ease him into camp. If they do, he will likely be a step behind Tua in terms of first-team reps.

Speaking of Tua, it was obviously a pretty terrible ending in South Beach. The 2025 Miami Dolphins‘ season quickly unraveled as the team went 1-6 in the first month and a half. Mike McDaniel ultimately pulled the plug in an ugly loss to Pittsburgh in Week 15. Tua was benched for the final three games as the team waved the white flag. Tagovailoa enjoyed plenty of success with Mike McDaniel and even led the league in passing in 2023! However, his YPA has fallen off in four straight seasons from 8.9 > 8.3 > 7.2 > 6.9, signaling the former fifth overall pick’s best days are likely behind him.

New head coach Kevin Stefanski has historically leaned into the run game as a play caller. Going back to 2019, Stefanski’s teams have ranked 25th (MIN), 28th, 28th, 24th, 15th, 5th and 18th in neutral pass rate. It is worth noting that over the last two years, Stefanski has delegated play-calling duties to Ken Dorsey and Tommy Rees. Dorsey has historically been a more pass-heavy OC, and we saw that come to fruition in 2024. In 2019 with Minnesota, Stefanski had Dalvin Cook, and early on in Cleveland, he had Nick Chubb. Now, he has two struggling QBs and Bijan Robinson in his backfield. You do the math!

To be fair, it will be Rees calling plays this season, but given that this team’s offensive identity is Bijan and the trajectory of the QB room, I suspect we see the Falcons rank in the top half of the league in rush rate. The winner of this camp battle may not matter much for fantasy football outside of 2QB leagues, but it could matter if we are talking about supporting high-end seasons from Bijan, London, and Pitts. For what it’s worth, over the last 2 seasons, Tua targeted his RBs 26% of the time, the highest rate in the NFL. If you are snagging Bijan with a top-two pick, perhaps Tua is the preference for that elite PPR ceiling.

Baltimore Ravens

Can Lamar Jackson bounce back with Declan Doyle at OC?

The Ravens as we’ve known them for the last decade are no more. John Harbaugh is now in New York, and Todd Monken is in Cleveland. We will have a first-time head coach in Jesse Minter and a first-time player-caller in Declan Doyle, who comes over from Chicago. The Bears offense was obviously awesome a year ago, but Ben Johnson gets the credit there as he was the play-caller and responsible for second-half adjustments. Just 30 years old, Doyle previously spent time under Sean Payton in Denver as a TE coach (2023-2024) and as an offensive assistant in New Orleans (2019-2022). Learning from guys like Payton and Johnson can’t be a bad thing, but it is still a bit of a wild card given that we have no track record of Doyle as a play caller in the NFL.

For what it’s worth, Lamar did speak highly of Doyle’s offense this spring, saying: “It’s a different system than what I’m accustomed to being in, and I feel like there’s going to be a lot of explosiveness this year. The way Declan calls plays and his creativity with his mind – how detailed he is – it’s mind-blowing. I’m excited.”

It was a down year in 2025 for the Ravens. Their defense struggled at times; they struggled to get after the passer; Lamar missed plenty of time; and outside of Zay Flowers, they didn’t really have a prolific second option in the pass game. Looking ahead to 2026, some of those same issues could remain.

Behind Zay, this pass-catching core is weak. Mark Andrews is another year older and showing signs of decline with career lows in YPRR (1.23) and YAC/Rec (2.3) in 2025. Rashod Bateman has failed to live up to that first-round draft capital from a few years back, Devontez Walker has done nothing in the NFL, and they are counting on two volatile rookies in Ja’Kobi Lane (third round) and Elijah Sarratt (fourth round). If Flowers happens to get injured, the weaponry here becomes a yellow-to-red flag. Along the same lines, the offensive line could be a problem after they lost starting C Tyler Linderbaum to Las Vegas in free agency. Warren Sharp’s team has the Baltimore O-line ranked 24th entering the season while Mike Clay has the BAL line 20th in his unit grades.

If the line can get stabilized here and Flowers stays healthy, there is still plenty of reason for optimism, however. The market is giving the Ravens a 11.5 win total, they have the sixth-easiest strength of schedule in the league, and they have the fifth-highest implied team total based on lookahead lines. All in all, I think the range of outcomes here on Baltimore is wider than normal given the first-time play caller and the depth concerns, but I don’t want to overthink this on a QB who’s capable of a difference-making season.

Prior to Lamar’s hamstring-affected season in 2025, he was ranked either first or second in rushing yards per game among QBs every year from 2019 to 2024. In addition, prior to the hamstring injury last year, Jackson was crushing as a passer, ranking first in YPA, third in EPA per dropback, fifth in completion rate, and first in TD rate. The year prior, he set career highs in TDs, yards, and YPA. This is one of the few QBs in the league capable of separating at the position, and I do think the ceiling remains intact. We just need Doyle’s scheme to help Lamar regain some of that magic.

Buffalo Bills

How much does DJ Moore have left in the tank?

Obviously, it wasn’t a great season in 2025 for DJ Moore. Despite popping up for some big plays, he is coming off career lows in receptions and receiving yards. In addition, I laid out his three-year declining efficiency marks in a recent post on X:

DJ Moore is 29 years old & changing teams in Year 9

Historically, that's a tough bet. Efficiency on the decline but Josh Allen's WR1 🤷‍♂️

YPRR: 2.31 > 1.44 > 1.24
TPRR: 24% > 22% > 16%
1D/RR: 0.115 > 0.068 > 0.063
MTF/Rec: 0.17 > 0.18 > 0.08 pic.twitter.com/hmxla6u2ZO

— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) July 10, 2026

It is fair to at least consider if Moore has reached the beginning of the age curve. He is 29 years old, so it is not like he will be retiring anytime soon, but regardless of whether you are a Moore truther for 2026, we can all agree he is leaving his prime. The big question for fantasy is whether or not Joe Brady and the Bills change their “WR-by-committee” approach in 2026.

If they don’t, I am not sure Moore is efficient enough at this stage of his career to be a huge hit for fantasy. Ever since Diggs left, we have been chasing the upside of Josh Allen‘s WR1. However, in 2024, he became the first top-5 fantasy QB without a top-36 scoring WR or top-12 TE. In 2025, Allen did it again! Ever since Brady took over as OC and play-caller, the Bills have played slowly, leaned on the ground game with James Cook, and used multiple WRs and TEs.

Over the last two seasons, they have ranked 25th and 28th in neutral pace, and they have been 23rd and 28th in pass attempts per game. Given that they have been one of the most prolific offenses in football, I would be surprised if that philosophy all of a sudden changes in 2026 given that the play-caller remains the same.

That said, we at least need to consider what the Bills gave up via trade to acquire Moore. After years of flak for not investing at the WR position, GM Brandon Beane sent a second-round pick for Moore (plus a fifth). In NFL world, that is a big-time asset for an aging WR. Surely, they believe Moore has at least 1-2 more productive seasons in him if they are willing to part with a second-round pick to reunite the former Carolina Panther with his former play-caller. Rationally, you would think with that investment, they plan to feature him in the pass game, but we see NFL teams do irrational things all the time. If they do plan to feature him, we need to acknowledge that even though there is downside here given age/efficiency concerns, the opportunity upside case is intact. After all, this will easily be the best QB Moore has ever played with in his career. His starting QBs to date:

• 2018 (Rookie season): Cam Newton
• 2019: Kyle Allen
• 2020: Teddy Bridgewater
• 2021: Sam Darnold
• 2022: Darnold/Baker Mayfield/P.J. Walker
• 2023: Justin Fields
• 2024/25: Caleb Williams (58% completion rate in ’25)

Entering August, I find myself more out than in on Moore, especially on best ball sites where his ADP is elevated due to the desire of drafters to stack him with Allen. However, in home leagues where his cost is in the middle to back half of the sixth round, he is a much more appealing click where you can take on some more risk at a reduced cost.

Carolina Panthers

How will the backfield touches be distributed?

The Panthers let Rico Dowdle walk in free agency, and “Two pumps” leaves behind 286 total opportunities in this backfield. It wasn’t supposed to be that way, though. Chuba Hubbard signed a four-year, $33 million extension with this team just a couple of years ago, and the team drafted Jonathon Brooks in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. After Brooks re-tore his ACL during his rookie campaign, the team decided to give him a ‘redshirt’ year in 2025. They entered the 2025 season with the plan to make Chuba their lead back, and over the first few weeks, things were looking just fine for Hubbard.

In Weeks 1-3 prior to suffering a calf injury in Week 4, he had snap shares of 67% > 74% > 62%, and in those three contests, he averaged 19 total opportunities per game. However, after the calf injury, Chuba was relegated to a secondary option as part of a timeshare. Rico absolutely dominated in Weeks 5-12 without Chuba and with Hubbard getting eased back into action off the injury. After his return from injury, Hubbard really struggled with efficiency. He averaged a paltry 3.8 yards per carry, and just 6% of his attempts went for 10+ yards. He was also 43rd in NextGenStats’ rushing yards over expectation per attempt. How much of that was the calf? It is hard to say, but for what it’s worth, Hubbard was third in the exact same metric back in 2024. As a pass catcher, he averaged just 1.0 YPRR, which is a pretty pedestrian mark for an RB. It’s been even worse in previous years, with Hubbard averaging 0.51 and 0.79 YPRR in 2024 and 2023, respectively. All in all, most of us can agree that Hubbard is not the most explosive or dynamic RB, but he has shown an ability to compile touches when the opportunity presents itself.

At the same time, he is at major risk of losing touches to Brooks in 2026. The Panthers took on some risk in 2024 when they selected the former Texas Longhorn with the 46th overall pick, even though he was coming off a torn ACL. He appeared in just three games in that 2024 season but logged just 12 total touches before going down with another ACL injury. So, we really have no clue how talented Brooks actually is as an NFL player. If you go back to the collegiate profile, however, it was green across the board in 2023 once he got a chance to be the guy without Bijan Robinson. He posted elite marks in Breakout Age (19.1), Dominator Rating (29%), and had an 11% reception share in that Texas offense. Per Jason’s FELIX model, Brooks was rated as an 86th percentile prospect – really good, but not elite. If you want a more detailed write-up on the prospect, my guy Marvin Elequin broke him down in this rookie profile article.

Surely Carolina will want to get a look at their young prospect after using pretty legit draft capital on him, but the question is how much work could he reasonably get? Assuming both backs stay healthy, it is difficult to envision a world where they let Brooks loose right out of the gate given his durability concerns. However, let’s say he is performing well in practice, and they like what they see on tape after 3-6 weeks. Is it possible that Brooks overtakes Chuba if Hubbard remains as inefficient as he was last season? It’s absolutely in the range of potential outcomes. It is also entirely possible that Brooks cannot handle an NFL workload as a bell cow, rendering Chuba a useable RB2 most weeks. I view this situation as highly volatile heading into Week 1, and it is largely dependent on Brooks’ performance throughout camp.

From a cost perspective, it’s a no-brainer to be in on Brooks in season-long managed formats. Based on our ADP data, Brooks is being selected in the 11th round on Yahoo! and ESPN, and over on Sleeper, he is a 12th-round pick. Because that cost is so low and you can drop him if it doesn’t work out without sacrificing our team, he is one of our official Sleepers in the Ultimate Draft Kit. In best ball, Brooks is on the rise and rising quickly, so more consideration is needed in those formats.

I will say this when it comes to both RBs. The Panthers have the third-most difficult schedule in the NFL after sneaking into the playoffs at 8-9 despite having a -69 point differential. That was the fourth-worst point differential in the entire NFC (Regression??). They were 24th in red zone TD rate, and their QB has never finished higher than 26th in EPA per dropback in a season. Entering 2026, they are underdogs in 14 of 17 games, and based on lookahead lines, their average team total ranks 27th in the league. Do with that information what you will…

Chicago Bears

How will the targets be distributed without DJ Moore on the roster?

There are wars in the fantasy streets! No matter where you turn, someone is hyping up Luther Burden as the guy. Meanwhile, someone else is claiming Rome Odunze is the best value, and then there are those folks out there claiming Mr. Loveland is the real answer! D.J. Moore vacates a 16% target share in the Chicago offense, and quietly, Olamide Zaccheaus vacates a 13.2% market share. No doubt, there is opportunity up for grabs in 2026, so it is easy to see why fantasy drafters are so enthralled with the Bears’ pass game weapons.

We will start with the WR room, and when you look at the depth chart, Chicago has pretty obviously cleared the deck for Luther Burden and Rome Odunze to dominate looks here. No disrespect to Kalif Raymond, Jahdae Walker, Scotty Miller, Zavion Thomas, or Maurice Alexander (Who?!), but there really isn’t a WR3 here to take volume away from Burden or Odunze.

Let’s start with Burden, who is the new hotness when it comes to fantasy football. In fantasy land, we love projecting forward, don’t we? Burden’s per-route metrics were off the charts, so if you are someone who looks at this game from an analytical perspective, it is easy to get excited about LuBu. Last year’s second-round NFL Draft pick finished the season with a 2.69 YPRR rate, the third-best rookie season mark since 2011. He also earned a target on just under 25% of his routes…speaking of routes. That is the issue.

Burden dealt with a soft tissue injury last summer, so it is not super shocking that he got off to a slow start. He didn’t play more than 40% of the snaps until Week 10, and he didn’t run more than 70% of the routes in any game last season. We have gotten out over our skis before on sexy Year 2 breakouts, and while the upside case is immense for Burden (Ben Johnson did tell us to buy Burden stock after all!), we also need to recognize that there is a world that exists where the efficiency metrics do not translate over a full season sample size.

It feels like forever ago, but if we rewind to the start of the 2025 season, Odunze was dominating for fantasy before that foot injury. From Weeks 1-10, Rome was seeing a 24% target share while averaging 12.3 fantasy points per game. He was also easily the leader in the clubhouse when it comes to end zone targets. Granted, those numbers were before Loveland and Burden’s playing time spiked, so perhaps it is not a copy-and-paste situation. Regardless, given the deeper targets and the end zone targets, Odunze has more appeal in those standard/half PPR formats where we are rewarded more for TDs.

As for Colston Loveland, it was a slow start for the rookie a year ago. From Weeks 1-7, Loveland was a part-time player who averaged just 15.8 routes per game while missing Week 4 with a hip issue. However, from Week 8 through the NFL playoffs, Loveland earned a 23% target share and popped up for some massive games when it mattered most:

• Week 17: 6/94/1 on 10 targets
• Week 18: 10/91/1 on 13 targets
• Wild Card Round: 8/137/0 on 15 targets
• Divisional Round: 4/56/0 on 10 targets

Like Burden, Loveland is the shiny new toy, and in fantasy land, we love extrapolating end-of-season production. I do need to point out that most of those huge games came with Rome either out of the lineup or limited by the foot injury, so again, this isn’t an apples-to-apples, copy-and-paste situation. Still, Loveland finishing as the overall TE1 is in the range of outcomes if he leads Chicago in targets.

The nice thing about these Chicago pass catchers is that we should see targets condense around these three pieces. After Loveland became more of a full-time player, Chicago was sixth in the rate of 12 personnel usage and second in 13 personnel usage behind only Sean McVay’s Rams. Given the lack of investment at WR this offseason, I suspect we will see that trend continue in 2026. That heavy personnel usage should help Burden, Rome, and Loveland spike in targets and yards per route run. We just need Caleb to complete more than 58% of his passes for this thing to really start cooking.

Cincinnati Bengals

Can the Bengals win the Division and make a postseason run?

The Bengals are perhaps the most ‘boring’ team in this article as they essentially return the entire starting offense from a season ago. For context, the only vacated targets from the 2025 offense are from Noah Fant, who saw just a 7% target share. We know exactly what to expect from this offense – Joe Burrow at QB, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins dominating targets and Chase Brown as the RB1. With virtually zero question marks about the usage in this offense, let’s take a look at the team from a top down view.

Unfortunately, when it comes to the Bengals, Joe Burrow‘s injury history has been a major factor. We saw that on full display a year ago when the team was virtually unwatchable with Jake Browning under center. It caused the team to panic-trade for Joe Flacco to step in as the starter until Burrow could return from a Week 2 turf toe surgery. It’s pretty clear at this point that the Bengals go as Joe Burrow goes. Since 2021, Burrow is seventh in the NFL in EPA per play, fifth in Success Rate and second in completion percentage over expectation. We’ve seen Burrow take his team to the Super Bowl back in 2021 and the AFC Championship in 2022. Can he do it again in 2026?

Per Warren Sharp, only the Lions and Saints have an easier strength of schedule this year, and the Bengals are favored in 15 of 17 games. The Bills (14), Lions (14), Seahawks (14), Eagles (13), Ravens (13), Packers (13) are favored in fewer games. So, it’s pretty safe to say Vegas is expecting Cincy to be one of the best teams in the league this year. Can the defense finally hold up their end of the bargain?

It’s no surprise that last year’s “defense” was a turn style, allowing opponents to score at will. In 2025, the Bengals defense ranked 29th in EPA per play, 32nd in yards per play and T-32nd in TDs allowed per game. They became the first team in NFL History to lose back-to-back games despite scoring 37+ in both of those games. 

No one is expecting the Cincinnati defense to all of a sudden become one of the best in the league, but can they at least be functional? Mike Clay as this defense ranked as his 25th unit, but the team did at least add some resources on that side of the ball. They traded for DT Dexter Lawrence and signed EDGE Boye Mafe, DT Jonathan Allen, and S Bryan Cook in free agency while also drafting EDGE Cashius Howell in Round 2 of NFL’s Draft. We’ll see how the pieces fit together in DC Al Goden’s second season in Cincinnati. All told, the defense could be the limiting factor here again (Drink), but the path is there for the Bengals to not only be one of the most valuable offenses in fantasy, but also push for plenty of team-level success. 

Cleveland Browns

How will the targets be distributed after the Browns took multiple WRs in the NFL Draft?

In 2025, the target tree in Cleveland was pretty condensed. We just two players on the roster post a 20+% target share a season ago: Harold Fannin Jr. (21%) and Jerry Jeudy (20%). Entering last year, it looked like Cedric Tillman might have a real role on the team while David Njoku was penciled in as the starter before Fannin took control of that TE1 role. For context on the spread out usage here, Tillman (7%), Njoku (9%) and Isaiah Bond (8%) all posted sub-10% target shares in last year’s offense.

That allowed Harold Fannin to be one of, if not the, most valuable late round TE options a season ago. Among all TEs who played 8+ games, last year’s rookie was the TE8 in points per game, he was fifth in targets, and he was eighth in yards. Meanwhile, the efficiency metrics were also quite good. He was 14th in yards per route run (1.68), and only Trey McBride forced more missed tackles according to PFF. On paper, it sure looks like, entering Year 2, Fannin could be one of the few TEs in the NFL who lead their team in targets. However, things will look much different this season.

The Browns drafted KC Concepcion with the 24th overall pick, and then they came back in Round 2 with Denzel Boston at the 39th overall pick. There’s a good chance new HC Tod Monken watch the Cleveland offense a year ago and said, “Yeah this WR room ain’t it.” Both of those WRs showcased great target earning ability in college with Concepcion posting a 26.8% career TPRR rate and Boston posting a 23.2% career TPRR rate. That doesn’t guarantee those guys will be great target earners in the pros, but compared to last year’s WR group, the target competition for Fannin (at least in theory) got a bit more difficult.

And then there’s Jerry Jeudy. It remains to be seen how he fits with this new offense, and the moves to draft not one but two WRs early in April suggests he’s not part of the long-term plans. However, this is still a capable (albeit frustrating) player who has earned 100+ targets in three of the last four seasons.

The QB room obviously leaves a lot to be desired here, so I do believe the overall ceiling is capped in this offense until that gets sorted out, but Monken has delivered no matter where he’s been. I’m particularly encouraged by Monken’s usage of the TE during his recent stops, so we’ll see if that continues in 2026 with Fannin. Worth noting, he did deal with a groin injury last year and was shut down at OTAs because of a soft tissue injury. He’s expected to enter camp without limitation, but that’s something I’ll be keeping an eye on in August, especially because we have Fannin was one of our Breakouts in the UDK. He’s one of just two rookies since 2000 to post 70+ catches, 700+ yards and 6+ TDs in his debut season with the other being Sam LaPorta.

Dallas Cowboys

Is Javonte Williams worth the elevated draft cost in 2026?

There really isn’t too much to discuss when it comes to Dallas. They have plenty of continuity across the board with QB1, RB1, WR1, WR2, WR3, and TE1 coming back in Year 2 of the Brian Schottenheimer era. Because there are really no camp battles to monitor, I am going to turn my attention to a player take, and that guy is Javonte Williams.

Last season, Javonte was buried in ADP and ended up being one of the best values in all of fantasy football. There were concerns about his injury history; he had struggled with efficiency in Denver, and he ultimately ended up in Dallas on a really cheap one-year veteran deal. Given those concerns, Williams was routinely available in the double-digit rounds. He smashed that ADP, finishing 2025 as the RB11 on the back of 1,200 rushing yards and 11 scores.

Now, entering 2026, we are forced to pay up for Javonte after a fantastic season, and deservedly so. My question, however, is whether or not Williams is worthy of this elevated cost. On Underdog, he is currently going at the 3/4 turn, which is around or ahead of guys like Emeka Egbuka, Josh Allen, Ladd McConkey, Tetairoa McMillan, Jaylen Waddle, the Chicago pass catchers, etc. In other words, by selecting Javonte, we are missing out on some potential league-winning profiles….that is, unless Williams has league-winning potential in his own right.

As a rusher last season, Williams ranked in the top half of the league in just about every category. Among qualified backs, he ranked:

• 7th in Rushing Yards per Game
• 11th in Success Rate
• 17th in RYOE/Att
• 13th in Total Opportunities

The biggest issue for Williams from an underlying metrics standpoint was the lack of efficiency in the pass game. Among all RBs who saw 25+ targets, Javonte was dead last in YPRR (0.40) according to PFF. Yards per route run can be a bit fluky when it comes to RBs, primarily because it relies on efficiency after the catch at the RB position. In other words, the vast majority of backs are seeing targets at or behind the line of scrimmage as offenses do not really funnel targets their direction unless your name is Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, or Jahmyr Gibbs, for example. Still, the point remains: Javonte didn’t do much in the pass game for us in fantasy, and that at least poses some yellow flag concerns entering 2026.

I want to be clear that I do not think Williams is a ‘bad’ pick. However, there is at least a chance Dallas works in a second RB more this season (perhaps Jaydon Blue won’t get blisters from his Louis Vuitton cleats?), and if that passing-game inefficiency continues, we will be forced to rely on volume to get home in fantasy. The Cowboys project as one of the best offenses in football, so Williams deserves to go early in drafts, but it is fair to wonder if there is still meat on the bone at this cost.

Denver Broncos

Will Jaylen Waddle command enough volume to be a WR1 in fantasy?

Talent has never been the question for Jaylen Waddle, but after three years of fantasy gamers chasing that magical 2022 season, it Is fair to wonder what the true ceiling is for him at this stage of his career. From a top-down perspective, playing for Denver in 2026 is obviously a massive upgrade on whatever the heck the Dolphins are doing on offense. But, at the same time, Sean Payton has historically loved rotating his guys and using sub-packages for different personnel groups. Can we expect the same this year after the team sent the 30th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft for Waddle?

That compensation says Waddle should be heavily featured, but going back to 2023, Waddle hasn’t earned more than 104 targets in a season, and from 2022 to 2025, his target shares have been 21% > 23% > 16% > 23%. That’s fine for a WR2 or a WR3 in fantasy, but in order to be a difference maker in fantasy as a top-12 option, he will need that volume to spike in 2026.

We only have one season of Waddle in the NFL without Tyreek Hill. That came in 2021 when Waddle was a rookie, but it is worth pointing out that in that lone season, the guy saw 141 targets! Okay, no, we cannot just extrapolate stats from 2021…I get it. However, in the UDK, we are projecting Waddle to see more volume than he has in recent seasons.

Our current projection: 122 targets, 79 catches, and just over 1,000 yards.

From an upside standpoint, could that target number pop to 130, maybe 135? I think it is theoretically possible, but we probably need the routes to condense here. Per FantasyPoints’ charting, Troy Franklin quietly ran 455 routes a season ago, Marvin Mims ran 259, and even Lil’Jordan Humphrey ran 148. In 16 games, Waddle only ran 376…which is shockingly low. Could he push for 450+ routes this season and carry over his career 2.07 career YPRR efficiency?

As Hayden Winks noted on X, Waddle has been one of the best WRs in EPA per target with a healthy Tua:

Since then, Jaylen Waddle was the WR1 in EPA per target when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy.

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He just wasn't getting the ball enough. pic.twitter.com/NTEioikzOH

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) July 16, 2026

Detroit Lions

Where is Sam LaPorta at in his recovery?

LaPorta was having a nice season in 2025 before going down in Week 10 to a season-ending lower back injury. Prior to his injury, LaPorta was on pace for just over 75 catches, 900 yards and 6 TDs. If we can get that level of production again this year, there’s a potential buying opportunity at his current ADP. Perhaps you’re just like Jason Moore, who thinks about LaPorta while sitting on the toilet at 6 AM.

There’s also a potential trickle-down effect on the target share for someone like Jameson Williams, who exploded down the stretch once LaPorta went down. Without LaPorta, we also saw Jahmyr Gibbs get some insane usage. For context, he was on pace for 120 targets from Week 10 on! Needless to say, LaPorta’s health and availability is a big factor in how we project the Lions’ skill group to open the season.

It was revealed after the season that LaPorta had surgery on his lower back to address a disc injury. In early January after the season was over, LaPorta spoke with reporters for the first time since having surgery, and he shared some details on what had happened:

“It actually occurred in the Commanders game,” LaPorta revealed. “There were some accumulated falls and hits that I took in the weeks leading up to that game, and then of course, it happened in the Commanders game. I fully herniated the disc.”

LaPorta likely had a microdiscectomy procedure on his lower back, which is when the surgeon removes the piece of the disc that is herniated and causing symptoms. His surgery took place in late November, so it’s not surprising that the former second round pick was limited at OTAs and Mini Camp. However, by the time Week 1 rolls around, he’ll have had about 10 months of rehab. This should give LaPorta plenty of time to get back to feeling 100%, though some sort of caution/monitoring is warranted.

Despite some great post-surgical results in the vast majority of athletes, there is a chance that LaPorta experiences symptoms in the future even though he had this procedure. In other words, this isn’t necessarily a “one and done” type of situation as lower back dysfunction can be tricky, especially in a brutal sport like NFL football. The Lions have seemed to take things slowly with their starting TE, and I’d expect that trend to continue in camp. We could see some sort of “load management” plan for him in camp, and depending on how he’s feeling in season, we may see some limited practice reps as a precaution. All in all, I do expect LaPorta to have a good season and remain healthy, but this is an injury situation that needs to be monitored in camp.

We don’t have a lot of historical comps at TE in recent seasons, but one that sticks out to me is Rob Gronkowski, who also had a season-ending microdiscectomy procedure back in 2016. The following season, he went over 1,000 yards and finished as fantasy’s TE2 while playing in 14 games.

Green Bay Packers

Will routes finally condense for the WR room?

Over the last handful of seasons in Green Bay, we have seen Matt LaFleur prefer a WR-by-committee approach. Since Davante Adams was traded to the Raiders ahead of the 2022 season, the Packers haven’t featured a true WR1 in terms of routes or target share. Entering 2026, that might finally change after the team let Romeo Doubs walk in free agency and traded Dontayvion Wicks to the Eagles. In 2025, Doubs led the WR room with 390 routes and 84 targets while Wicks was fourth in routes (213) and third in targets (44). With those guys gone, WR depth here is quietly pretty weak.

Behind Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and last year’s first-rounder Matthew Golden, we are talking about guys like Skyy Moore, gadget man Savion Williams, Bo Melton, and Isaiah Neyor…you get the idea. After the team let Wicks and Doubs go, then signed Watson and Reed to extensions, the Packers’ moves would seem to indicate that we may finally see the routes and playing time condense for Watson, Reed, and Golden. If they do, could we see some potential high-upside outcomes in fantasy?

Christian Watson has been a frustrating player in fantasy due to injury and some inconsistent play at times, but the man has been efficient whenever he’s been on the field. Watson has topped a 2.2 yards per route run rate in three of his four NFL seasons, and per FantasyPoints’ Ryan Heath, Watson averages 17.5 FPG across 13 career games above a 75% route share. So, we’ve got a highly efficient player who has shown spike-week potential with fewer routes. What if Watson’s efficiency maintains with more routes? With Matthew Golden‘s struggles a year ago and Jayden Reed‘s lack of playing time on the outside, could we finally see Watson put it all together in 2026? His mid-round ADP is awfully enticing if you are looking for a home run swing.

Matthew Golden wasn’t necessarily a great prospect coming out of Texas, but the first-round NFL Draft capital says we at least need to leave the light on as a potential sleeper this season, even after a forgettable rookie year. He was rarely used as a full-time player, but we did see some playmaking ability in that playoff game against the Bears, and while his 1.35 YPRR mark isn’t good, we have definitely seen worse. Going off the board super late in drafts, you could always throw a dart and see what happens…

…But the guy that I think is most fascinating here is Jayden Reed. If you have been in the business of rostering Reed in fantasy, you’ve experienced the frustration that is rostering a Packers’ WR. Reed has flashed huge upside and spike week potential, but given his slot-only role in the offense, those weeks have been difficult to predict. But is it possible that Reed can work his way onto the field in 2WR sets? Perhaps it’s not likely, but Matthew Golden might not be a great target earner in the NFL, and Watson has plenty of injury woes in his career. To me, the most likely outcome is that Reed stays in the slot, as he has run roughly 75% of his routes from the slot since he entered the league. However, if Golden struggles, there is plenty of opportunity up for grabs in the pass game. At his current ~WR50 ADP across most sites, we do not have to pay much to find out if a role change is at least possible in 2026. Much like Watson, Reed has always been an efficient WR with YPRR rates of f 1.83, 2.20, and 2.05 across three NFL seasons. What if he just runs more routes?

Houston Texans

Is David Montgomery a dead zone back?

Okay, to be fair – I don’t think we are going to get this answer in camp. But if I am being honest, I can’t help myself asking this question and doing a deep dive on the veteran RB after Dan Campbell significantly reduced his role in 2025 before the team agreed to trade him to Houston. The specific definition of a ‘dead zone’ RB is not widely agreed upon, but when I think of that archetype, it is generally (but not always) older backs who aren’t super efficient, aren’t great in the receiving game, and are volume/TD-dependent. And because of that volume projection, these RBs are usually pushed up in ADP due to the scarcity at the position. So, is Monty a potential fade or one of the better values in 2026?

Montgomery was awesome while playing next to Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit over the last few years. In 2023 and 2024, Monty banked back-to-back seasons with 14+ half PPR points per game, finishing as a rock-solid RB2 in fantasy in those years. In 2025, however, it was a different story. After seeing 17.4 opportunities per game in 2023 and 15.9 opportunities per game in 2024, Montgomery saw just 11 total opps per game a year ago. Moreover, his share of the RB carries declined year over year from 59% > 48% > 39%. Of course, when you are playing next to one of, if not the, best backs in football, you can explain away some of this decline.

So, we know the volume fell off, but how about the efficiency? While it didn’t feel like it, Montgomery was actually decent in most efficiency metrics last season. Among qualified rushers, he ranked 11th in rushing yards over expected per attempt, 17th in yards after contact per attempt, and 21st in yards per carry. Unfortunately, those numbers didn’t mean much as Montgomery averaged just 9.1 fantasy points per game, the lowest of his career.

Now 29 years old and switching teams, Montgomery certainly comes with some risk. As Marvin Elequin noted in his Dynasty Lifecycle series, the vast majority of RBs start to decline around age 28 and 29.  Furthermore, most backs start to decline in Years 6-8 in the NFL. Monty is entering his eighth year in the league and is coming off his worst statistical season as a rusher since he entered the league.

From a team-level standpoint, there is no doubt that Montgomery is going to see plenty of early down work in this offense. Woody Marks was called upon as a rookie after the Joe Mixon foot saga of 2025, and well, it wasn’t great. He averaged just 3.6 yards per attempt, which ranked 48th out of 49 RBs with 100+ rushes last season. He was also 45th in yards after contact per carry, so it is not really a stretch to say that even at this point in his career, Montgomery is certainly a better runner than Marks, who is likely to be relegated to a change-of-pace/receiving option in 2026. The team has openly talked about fixing some of their red zone scoring woes by bringing in Montgomery in order to be more successful running the ball inside the 10-yard line. The team converted a league-worst 17% of their attempts inside the 5-yard line into TDs, with the league average being 39%. So, yes, he will get that goal line role, but what is that actually worth?

Based on lookahead lines, the Texans are 19th in projected average team total, and they are projected to be one of the worst offensive lines in football. DeMeco Ryans will certainly try to lean on his elite defense and run the football this season, but the biggest questions I have on Monty are:

1. How many TDs can we actually expect? Houston has ranked T-21st in offensive TDs per game in back-to-back seasons.
2. How much pass down work will Woody Marks steal?

I would love to give a black-and-white concrete answer to the question if Monty is a dead zone trap, but as with most things in fantasy football, there is plenty of gray. Could Monty return a top-24 season as a solid RB2 thanks to 8+ rushing TDs? For sure. Could he also be on the decline, lose pass-down work, and ultimately be a replaceable asset in 2026? You betcha. Because of this, I find myself being price/format sensitive. For example, I much prefer him on TD-heavy half PPR formats to full PPR if I’m taking the plunge with the veteran, and at the same time, I find myself preferring the upside WRs that go around him. For example, on Yahoo! Jamo, Terry McLaurin, Jaylen Waddle, and Luther Burden are right there, and some of the secondary tier elite QBs go in that range as well. Bottom line: I would be surprised if Montgomery is a guy you need in fantasy this season, but we have certainly seen worse dead zone backs in recent seasons. Shout out to Zamir White and his biceps.

Indianapolis Colts

Can Josh Downs play in 2WR sets, and how healthy is Alec Pierce?

The Colts caught most people by surprise in 2025 as they were one of the best offenses and best teams in football heading into November. Coming out of their Week 11 bye, Indy was 8-2 and headed towards a top seed in the AFC. Unfortunately, their postseason dreams got derailed in Week 14 when Daniel Jones tore his Achilles against Jacksonville, but prior to the Jones Achilles injury, Shane Steichen’s unit ranked #1 in PPG with Jonathan Taylor looking like the potential Offensive Player of the Year and Jones looking like one of the best QB values in all of fantasy. Fast forward one year, and we have question marks all over the depth chart.

Jones himself is recovering from a torn Achilles, Alec Pierce is recovering from off-season ankle surgery, and Michael Pittman Jr. is now in Pittsburgh. That means we have a lot to track over the next six weeks as we look ahead to Week 1. The Colts obviously feel confident in Pierce’s long-term health after they signed him to a massive contract extension at the start of free agency. However, he did not participate at all in OTAs or mini camp, and there have been multiple reports suggesting he could be limited for the first few weeks of camp. As a result, it is reasonable to expect his 2026 campaign to get off to a bit of a slow start given that he will have had minimal participation in any offseason program for the Colts. So, if he is limited to begin the year, Indy will be counting on the rest of their pass catchers to step up in a meaningful way, especially early on.

Pitty City vacates a 21% target share in this offense from a season ago, and naturally most analysts expect Pierce to soak up some/most of that production given the contract. However, as we’ve already noted, he’s coming off that ankle procedure, and Pierce has never been a volume receiver in his career, and that includes his days in college. Pierce has never averaged more than 5.6 targets per game since he entered the NFL, and going back to his days at Cincinnati, he topped out at 52/884/7 across 14 games as a Senior. Could he develop into a first-read, high-volume weapon in Year 5 in the league? It is possible, but the data says it is going to take a massive leap forward.

We know when Pierce is healthy, he will be an every-down player, especially in 2WR sets. The other WR? That is where the question marks start to emerge. As things stand, the depth chart leaves a lot to be desired. Behind Josh Downs, we are talking about guys like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Ashton Dulin, Deion Burks, Anthony Gould, and the GOAT Laquon Treadwell. Yikes. Naturally, that has led to a lot of analysts wondering if the Colts let Josh Downs play in 2WR sets. So far in his career, we haven’t seen it. In three years in the league, he has run eight, eight, and 17 routes with two or fewer WRs on the field. In other words, he is pretty much been a slot-only player, which makes sense given his size and archetype coming out of North Carolina. As you can see, because of the personnel issues at WR, there are a lot of question marks on this Colts pass game entering 2026.

As you talk through some of these question marks and work your way through the WR depth chart, it starts to point you in what could be an obvious direction in hindsight – Tyler. Warren. Warren was the 14th pick in the NFL Draft just a season ago, and prior to the Jones injury, the rookie was averaging 4.8 catches per game for 57 yards and 10.7 fantasy PPG.  Across the full season, he saw a 21.2% target share, but there was a lot of meat left on the bone. A staggering 62% of his fantasy points came in the first half of games as Indy was routinely blowing the doors off teams in the second half, leading to fewer Danny Dimes dropbacks in the third and fourth quarter. That 62% first-half split was the second-highest of any WR/TE in football a year ago. If Indy happens to be in closer games this season, Warren could be in for a monster season if:

• Pierce isn’t fully healthy/not able to command volume and/or
• Downs isn’t trusted in 2WR sets

Could Shane Steichen choose to run his RPO, play action pass game through the second-year TE? As a rookie, he was targeted on 33.3% of his routes with 3.30 YPRR when the Colts used play action, and in a limited sample size with Pittman off the field, the rookie TE was targeted on just under 25% of his routes.

Jacksonville Jaguars

How will the backfield touches be distributed?

The other key question here in Jacksonville is how these targets will be divided amongst Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Travis Hunter and Brenton Strange, but most fantasy gamers have debated that for months already, and to be honest, I am not sure we will get that answer in camp, especially given the wide range of outcomes on Hunter’s playing time on the offensive side of the ball. So, let’s pivot to Liam Cohen’s ambiguous backfield for the second year in a row.

In 2025, if you took the plunge on Travis Etienne at a reduced cost off a down year, you struck gold with the RB13 in points per game. Perhaps we can get a similar outcome for an offense that ranked fourth in offensive TDs per game a season ago. Let’s dive into the main options in the backfield: Bhayshul Tuten & Chris Rodriguez Jr. I do not have any interest in LeQuint Allen in season-long leagues, but it is worth noting that he is likely to have a role in obvious passing situations and on special teams.

Let’s start with Rodriguez, aka CROD. The first thing we need to track with him is the foot injury that sidelined him for the entirety of the spring. He reportedly had a minor procedure on his foot, though the specifics of the injury were never reported. If he is limited to open camp, that will open the door for Tuten to handle most of the reps with the starters. But even if CROD is healthy for the majority of camp, what type of outcome could we get here for the journeyman? He will turn 26 years old later this season, and as a former sixth-round pick, we haven’t seen him in a featured role at all through three years. From 2023 to 2025, Rodriguez has had season-long snap shares of 10% > 11%> 26%, but he is coming off a 2025 season where he handled 41% of the RB carries for Washington. In fantasy, we really need our backs to catch the football in order to have those high-end outcomes, and that is incredibly unlikely with CROD. Through three years in the NFL, he has caught just six passes, and even going back to his time in college, he only caught 20 balls across five seasons. If Rodriguez all of a sudden becomes a receiving threat in the NFL, he would obviously be a huge outlier and a surprise. Now, Rodriguez does have familiarity with Cohen going back to their time at Kentucky, so perhaps that is worth something, but the best outcome here for CROD when it comes to fantasy is that he is an early down grinder who can lock up the goal line role.

Bhayshul Tuten is by far the more exciting fantasy prospect, and while the market does reflect that since he’s the first Jags RB off the board, he is pretty cheap relative to the right tail outcomes that are possible in this offense. As noted above, CROD doesn’t really have a pass-catching profile; Tuten does. Going back to his final two years at Virginia Tech, Tuten saw reception shares of 13.2% and 11.5%. For context, anything north of 10% in college is excellent for an RB prospect. Toots only saw 14 targets a year ago, but we saw what Etienne did in this offense, hauling in 36 passes for just under 300 yards and six TDs as a receiver. It is pretty clear that if one of these RBs is going to take on that early-down receiving production, it’s Tuten.

As a runner, we didn’t get to see a ton of huge plays a season ago, but coming out of Tech, he ran 4.32 and earned a 97th-percentile speed score. Per PFF, he was ninth in the FBS in breakaway rush rate in 2024, ahead of Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, Jeremiyah Love, and RJ Harvey. Bottom line: We know those big plays are in his range of outcomes. Last year’s rookie didn’t impress in yards per carry efficiency with just 3.7, but that can be misleading considering 25 of his 83 carries last year came inside the red zone. Tuten actually ranked ahead of Etienne in EPA per rush, yards after contact per attempt, and success rate. In addition, he was trusted at the goal line a year ago, converting five of his seven of his attempts inside the 5-yard line into TDs. In other words, the team already trusted him at the goal line at times a year ago as a rookie. League-winning RBs generally come from ambiguous backfields in the middle rounds, and Tuten could be hiding in plain sight, especially in home leagues where his ADP is buried in the 7th round on ESPN and 6th round on Yahoo.

Kansas City Chiefs

Does the signing of Kenneth Walker mean we will see a different offense in 2026?

The simple answer: Yeah, probably dude! They did, after all, make him the sixth-highest-paid RB in average annual salary this offseason when they signed the SB MVP to a three-year deal worth $43M. Prior to signing Ken Bone in free agency, the Chiefs had been bargain shopping at RB, giving plenty of snaps to guys like Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Damien Williams, Jerick McKinnon, etc. To be fair, they did try to use capital on a RB when they over-drafted CEH in the first round, but obviously that didn’t work out. And to KC’s credit, it has worked out just fine with this cheap approach at RB. These Andy Reid and Pat Mahomes guys know a thing or two about winning…

When you look at the Chiefs over the last handful of years with Mahomes in his prime, they have leaned heavily on their star QB. Since 2022, they have ranked 8th, 7th, 10th, and 6th in pass rate. It has pretty clearly been a pass-first offense. However, with the NFL defensive meta shifting to more of these zone concepts to limit big plays, perhaps it is time to shift towards more of a balanced game plan with the run game now in vogue.

When you look at the state of KC’s skill position players, it would absolutely make sense that we will see the pass rate drop off in 2026:

• Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL + LCL and was the Chiefs’ leading rusher in multiple games last year as a scrambler (not ideal!)
• Rashee Rice is coming off a clean-up procedure on his surgically repaired knee (and spent time in the slammer while rehabbing)
• Travis Kelce is about to be 37 years old and coming off back-to-back career lows in YPRR (1.49 > 1.47)
• Xavier Worthy still has talent profile question marks after inconsistent play over the last two years

So what could this mean for fantasy? Of course, if they do really lean into Walker, he is a very enticing pick in the second round of drafts. Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce are going late enough that they are highly unlikely to sink your team if they underperform at cost. The two guys I do have some concerns about are Mahomes and Rice.

Mahomes was excellent for fantasy last season, averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. However, most of that fantasy goodness happened as a result of Mahomes setting career highs in rushing attempts, yards, and TDs. Coming off this knee injury, we obviously shouldn’t expect that to repeat, which means in order for Mahomes to be a difference-maker in fantasy, he will have to spike as a pocket passer. Could he do it? I mean, yeah, he is Patrick freakin’ Mahomes after all, but we have been chasing those high-flying Tyreek seasons for years now, and I am just not sure it’s possible with this set of weapons and with this low aDOT style of offense. For context, over the last three years, he has a lower average YPA mark (7.0) than Geno Smith (7.2), Kirk Cousins (7.3), CJ Stroud (7.5), and Tua Tagovailoa (7.6). Andy Reid has been one of the best offensive minds in football for the last 15+ years, but KC ranked 25th in pre-snap motion and 30th in play action rate last season. Dude…what?

Speaking of low aDOT, hey Rashee Rice. From a fantasy points per route run perspective, Rice has been one of the most valuable WRs in our game over the last couple of years. You can easily argue about his true WR skills or his route running capability, but the bottom line is that whenever he has been on the field, he has been excellent for fantasy and a rock-solid WR1 start week in and week out. Could that change in 2026 with Rice coming off another off-the-field incident and a procedure on his knee that goes back to his season-ending LCL and posterolateral corner injury in 2024? A career 4.7-yard aDOT player, Rice has needed volume to be a difference-maker for fantasy. As noted above, it is possible that the KC pass rate comes down in 2026. If it does, are we still getting the same production from Rice? Depending on which site you look at, he is coming off the board as the WR9 to WR13, so there’s really not much room for error here…

Las Vegas Raiders

How long until we see Fernando Mendoza take the field?

Right now, the Raiders are a pretty ‘easy’ team for fantasy in that they really only have two guys that we really care about: Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers. Both guys are certified stud muffins who should dominate touches in the run game and pass game, respectively. All three Ballers have Bowers ranked as the TE1 while the guys all have Jeanty ranked as a top-10 RB. There is not too much to discuss here when it comes to those guys at the top – they are good picks!

The biggest question I have for fantasy is the QB room and how that affects the aforementioned Bowers and Jeanty. Per researcher extraordinaire and freak in the spreadsheets, Kyle Borgognoni, among 35 first-round QBs over the last decade, the average debut for rookies is Week 5. However, when you look at the guys who were taken with the #1 overall pick, the vast majority of those signal callers are under center in Week 1. Las Vegas has made it pretty clear that they will bring Mendoza along slowly, so I do not expect him to start the season as Kirk Cousins shows the youngster the ropes early on. Naturally, bringing him in after a bye week makes sense, but unfortunately for Las Vegas, they do not have a bye until Week 13. When you look at the opening schedule, it is a pretty brutal runout for Klint Kubiak in Year 1 as a head coach.

LV starts at home against Miami, but after that, they play the Chargers, Saints, Chiefs, Patriots, Bills and Rams in Weeks 2-7. Per Warren Sharp, that stretch is the most difficult schedule in the league. The following week, they get the Jets on the road, so perhaps that’s a spot to pencil in Mendoza’s debut, but in all reality, it probably comes down to how well the team performs in the first couple of months. Sportsbooks are giving the Raiders a 5.5 win total, and after Week 1 against Miami, Las Vegas is an underdog in 13 (!) straight games. Needless to say, the market certainly is expecting plenty of L’s on the schedule. That could put the pressure on the front office and coaching staff to get the rookie in there sooner rather than later. What that means for fantasy late in the year is a giant question mark…

Los Angeles Chargers

Who is playing in 2WR sets for Mike McDaniel?

The Chargers offense should look quite different in 2026 with Mike McDaniel now in town as the OC. His teams in Miami sputtered down the stretch, but we are not that far removed from the Dolphins being a top-five team in yards per play, points per game, and EPA per play. With a better offensive line (and hopefully healthier) and an obvious upgrade at QB, many sharp analysts are on the Chargers entering the 2026 season and for good reason.

It’s easy to dive in headfirst and aggressively target the LAC skill guys, but perhaps more thought is needed when we consider personnel. McDaniel’s teams have historically featured above-average heavy RB usage, and he is one of the few OCs in the league who still utilizes a fullback. For context, the Dolphins have ranked first, second, and second since 2023 in the rate of 21 personnel usage (2WRs, 2RBs, 1 TE).

If we look at their offseason moves, we should expect a similar trend:

• Signed FB Alec Ingold to a 2-year, $7.5 million deal (followed McDaniel from Miami to LA)
• Signed TE Charlie Kolar to a 3-year, $24.3 million deal
• Signed TE David Njoku to a 1-year deal worth up to $8 million
• Signed RB Keaton Mitchell to a 2-year, $9.25 million deal
• Did not re-sign veteran and franchise legend Keenan Allen

LA also put somewhat significant resources into their offensive line in an attempt to provide some depth after LA’s O-line was one of the most injured and struggling units in football.

We will see plenty of designed rush attempts in this offense, so while I do think Justin Herbert can have an outlier efficiency season with this scheme, a healthy OL and upgraded play caller, I do question how much volume we might get for the pass catchers, especially if McDaniel’s offense continues to run at a slow pace. As Pat Thorman noted on X, there could be pace of play concerns with this play caller:

Miami finished 19th, 29th, 31st, and 32nd in neutral pace under McDaniel. They rarely ran a lot of plays, and Dolphins games ranked 22nd, 22nd, 25th, and 32nd in combined offensive snaps. Before Jim Harbaugh arrived, the Chargers were 1st and 13th in pace, and their games averaged the 2nd and 3rd most combined snaps. Since then, LAC has been 22nd and 31st in pace. They’ve ranked 19th and 29th in snaps.

So, back to our original question…if we think the offense could play slow and the RBs will see plenty of work, what does it mean for the WR room? For fantasy, we will probably need routes to condense and/or WRs to see a spike in efficiency.

Ladd McConkey is the first WR off the board, regardless of draft platform. After an impressive rookie season where he averaged 2.79 YPRR, McConkey was a major disappointment in 2025, losing valuable targets to Keenan Allen. In 2024, McConkey was in the slot on 71.3% of his routes, and in 2025, that number was at 65%. Over the last two seasons, he has only run 53 and 71 routes with two or fewer WRs on the field. That does not sound great, but when you consider that Quentin Johnston has only run 50 and 73 routes with two or fewer WRs on the field, it is not really an archetype issue to me; it is more of a team philosophy/personnel stat.

Worth noting, Tre Harris did come on later in the year and was running the most routes out of 13 personnel (1 WR on the field with 3 TEs). It’s possible he keeps that role or expands on it this season, making him an interesting later-round dart throw, but the real question here is how much Ladd and Quej play in 2WR sets. FantasyPoints’ Ryan Heath has done great work highlighting that WRs see a spike in efficiency with fewer WRs on the field, so is it possible Ladd or Quej are massive hits in fantasy? For what it’s worth, The Athletic’s Daniel Popper noted, “The offensive scheme will get McConkey on the move with pre-snap motions and shifts. McConkey will be able to use his route running and speed to create after the catch. He is the No. 1 option in this passing offense.”

I find myself wanting plenty of both in best ball contests, but admittedly, the price on Johnston is getting a little out of hand for a WR who’s only averaged 3.7 and 3.6 receptions per game over the last two years. While Ladd’s ceiling feels capped after a sophomore slump, I find myself buying back into his rookie season peripheral numbers and the potential that there is way more meat on the bone if he is consistently playing in 2WR sets. It wasn’t that long ago that Jaxon Smith-Njigba was typecast as a “slot only” WR. From 2023 to 2024, JSN ran 14 and 44 total routes with 2 or fewer WRs on the field. Of course, we know the narrative has now changed after his outstanding 2025 campaign. No, Ladd and JSN aren’t the same players, but I think a similar spike can happen for Ladd with a brand new scheme. As Quentin Johnston‘s ADP continues to climb and the gap between him and Ladd in ADP shrinks, I find myself betting more on Ladd in best ball contests. In home leagues, however, Quentin Johnston is an awesome target in the double-digit rounds, as highlighted by our ADP comparison tool in the UDK:

Los Angeles Rams

Will the backfield be more of a 50-50 split in 2026?

Fantasy gamers have spent the last two years trying to answer this question. Ever since Blake Corum was taken in the third round of the NFL Draft a couple of years ago, there has been off-season chatter about an RBBC in LA. In 2024, when Corum was a rookie, that certainly did not come to fruition whatsoever, as he played just 11% of the offensive snaps and handled 66 total opportunities. Kyren, meanwhile, was a true workhorse, playing 81% of the snaps while handling a staggering 38% of the team’s rush attempts and targets, including 83% of the RB carries.

A year ago, we did see Corum start to emerge as a piece of the offense, especially down the stretch. Coming out of the team’s Week 8 bye, Corum handled 11 opportunities per game while playing 25+% of the snaps in every contest. Of course, because the Rams were such a juggernaut offense, Kyren was still excellent for fantasy, finishing the season as the RB9 in half PPR formats. The veteran out-carried Corum 30 to 16 inside the 10-yard line and out-targeted him 50 to 14. In fantasy football, we can live with a bit of a split as long as our backs are seeing those high-value touches, but it is fair to wonder if those could be more fragile in 2026.

Worth noting, The Athletic’s Nate Adkins recently wrote, “Williams should continue to outsnap Corum because of his third-down skills, but the rushing attempts should look much more like a 50-50 split, with Williams offering consistency and short-yardage skills, and Corum bringing an explosive element on drives after Williams has worn down the defense. 

If this is more of a 50-50 split, there’s a good chance Corum is being undervalued in drafts. However, if this is just noise before the pads come on, Kyren’s RB16 ADP over on Sleeper could look silly in hindsight. Regardless, the sports books are projecting LA for the most implied points in 2026, and the Rams have a consensus top-five offensive line. If either player happens to get hurt, the other has massive contingent upside on what should be one of the best offenses in the league.

Miami Dolphins

Can Malik Willis provide fantasy value as a late-round QB?

Outside of DeVon Achane, there’s not much to get excited about when it comes to this Dolphins team. To point out how much of a rebuild they are actually in, the Dolphins are absorbing $180M (!) in dead money this season. They are still on the hook for Tua’s massive salary, Tyreek Hill, Jalen Ramsey, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Bradley Chubb, etc. It is bleak, folks.

As a result, the team had to do some bargain shopping in free agency to try to assemble a roster. Given that most of their funds are tied up on players not on the roster, they are dead last in money spent on the offensive side of the football. They have also got a first-time head coach in Jeff Hafley, and Bobby Slowik is back as OC.

At the skill positions, we can get excited about Achane’s big-play ability, but at the WR and TE positions, this is arguably the weakest collective group of pass catchers in the NFL. For context on that, we are currently projecting Malik Washington as the ‘WR1’ here, but he is currently WR63 in the ranks on the back of a 484-yard, three-TD season. So…yeah, you get the point.

In Warren Sharp’s 2026 Football Preview, he has the Dolphins’ OL ranked 29th, and the WRs ranked 32nd. To quote Warren, “Based on average of our unit ranks, we believe Miami has the league’s worst roster.” Their win total sits at just 4.5, they’re favored in just one game (Week 12 against the Jets), and only the Cardinals have a more difficult strength of schedule entering 2026. It’s difficult to put into words how low the floor is on this team…

So, with all that said, what can we expect from Malik Willis in fantasy football? By now, we all know rushing mobility is a cheat code at the QB position, and Willis certainly has the ability to pile up yards with his legs. It is a small sample size, but in seven games where Willis has played 60+% of the snaps in his career, his rushing stat lines are:

• 10/44/0
• 9/60/2
• 6/41/0
• 6/73/1
• 5/12/0
• 8/40/0
• 7/43/1

That’s the good stuff right there. Unfortunately, for it to really come together in fantasy, we will need him to add something with his arm. In other words, that rushing profile is awesome for his fantasy floor, but in order to hit a ceiling, he will need to make strides as a passer. And that is where the concerns come into play. We have already highlighted the state of this WR room, but schematically, we are also looking at some problems. Did you realize Kevin Patullo was hired as the pass game coordinator?

To Willis’ credit, he flashed some upside as a passer in Green Bay, where he resurrected his career as Jordan Love‘s backup. Over the past two seasons, Willis completed 70 of 89 passes for 972 yards and a 6:0 TD-to-INT ratio. That was with Matt LaFleur and some studly playmakers. This will be with Bobby Slowik and WRs who are likely to be unemployed come 2027, respectfully.

In his career with Willis under center, his offenses on average have dropped back to pass just 40% of the time. And now, when you look at Bobby Slowik’s history, we should expect more of the same. We have also got a defensive-minded head coach in Hafley. All in all, I suspect the Dolphins will try to run the football and keep games close, but ultimately, they are going to have to drop back Willis to pass at a higher rate than they would like. Did I mention that they have the second-most difficult schedule, a bottom-10 defense, and are favored in just one of 17 games?

That is where the issues could really pile up. Willis has never attempted more than 23 passes in a single game in his career. Slowik has previously been a guy who likes to run on early downs. If this offense gets behind the sticks and Willis is dropping back in obvious pass down situations, we could see the floor bottom out. All that said, perhaps the scramble rate will be high enough for us in fantasy to sneak in a back door top-12 season, but without some pass numbers to go with it, the ceiling here is probably capped.

Minnesota Vikings

How will the backfield touches be distributed?

The Vikings didn’t add much to the RB depth chart this offseason, drafting Demond Claiborne in the sixth round out of Wake Forest. He is expected to contribute on special teams to open the season, which means they are essentially running it back with the 1-2 punch of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. As it stands, both backs are buried in ADP with Jones coming off the board on average as the RB37 with Mason getting selected a few picks later at RB41. Cheap, ambiguous backfields can be really helpful in mining value in fantasy football, so let’s dive in.

Given the state of the QB room in 2025, there were not many (any) Viking players who were difference makers in fantasy football. After all, ‘Nine’ turned Justin Jefferson, an All-Pro, into a ‘plug your nose and pray’ WR2 week in and week out. Systemically, things fell apart really quickly in Minnesota with the Vikings ranking 28th in yards per play, 19th in points per play, and 28th in EPA per play. Under Kevin O’Connell, that is certainly not the norm. From 2022 to 2024, KOC’s offenses have ranked T12th, 10th and 11th in yards per play. It is pretty easy to spot the outlier here…

So, if we expect Kyler to stabilize this thing and at least get Minnesota to league average in offensive production, can we find some value here with the Vikings’ backfield?

These two RBs should have different roles, with Jones more likely to see work in the pass game and Mason more likely to lead the team in carries. We saw that play out in spurts last year, especially after Jones returned from injury in Week 8. From Week 8 on, Jones’ 17-game pace was 63 targets. In that same sample, Mason’s was just 8.5. And that’s not necessarily new for Mason, who has caught just 28 total passes across four years as a pro. If that pass game usage is sticky for Jones, there is some sneaky target upside with Kyler under center. Since he came into the league, Kyler’s RBs have averaged a target market share of 19%. To be clear, a reception for Jones at this stage of his career probably isn’t worth what it used to be in his prime. Jones is coming off a 7.9 YAC/Rec mark, his lowest since 2020, and his YPRR rate fell 1.07, his lowest since 2018.

As for Mason, if he is going to deliver for us in fantasy, it is going to have to come via rushing efficiency and/or rushing scores. Since Mason entered the league, he is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. For context, only De’Von Achane (5.6) and Jahmyr Gibbs (5.3) are higher in that span. Not bad, Jordan!

Mason’s fantasy season wasn’t anything to write home about in 2025, but the efficiency metrics were quite good. Among 55 RBs who logged 75+ carries, he ranked sixth in RYOE/Att, ninth in YAC/Att, and ninth in yards per attempt. Worth noting, the Vikings O-line did deal with plenty of injury issues. Entering 2026, Mike Clay (11th) and Warren Sharp (13th) are both optimistic that this unit could be a fringe top-10 line. If Mason can lock up the goal line role, he could have some value as a TD-dependent RB2.

With the cost on both guys so low, I find myself taking shots on both as an RB4/RB5. I lean towards Jones in full PPR formats while siding with Mason in half PRR and standard leagues.

New England Patriots

Is AJ Brown starting to decline?

We could probably do an entire article series on the AJ Brown saga over the last year in Philly, but I digress. The big question here for fantasy is if Brown still has top-five WR upside we have seen at times during his tenure with the Eagles. Brown has been one of the most efficient WRs over the last decade. Here are his YPRR rates since he entered the league in 2019:

2.42 > 2.67 > 2.72 > 2.47 > 2.52 > 2.61 > 1.96. Absurd. He is also coming off career lows in YAC/Rec (3.3) and Passer Rating when targeted, and his 10 forced missed tackles per PFF were his fewest since 2021.

We need to try to figure out if those efficiency marks from a season ago were due to age-related decline, injury, lack of interest/team level frustrations, poor scheme (looking at you, Patullo), etc. Truthfully, it might be impossible to answer definitively, but perhaps it will not matter if his volume spikes in 2026?

The 2025 Eagles ranked 26th in pass attempts per game. In 2024, Philly was dead last. It is tough to see outlandish target counts when your QB isn’t dropping back to pass (shocking, I know). New England is coming off a season where they ranked 25th in pass attempts per game, but they were routinely beating teams by multiple scores in the second half. The Patriots ranked fourth in PROE in Maye’s first season with Josh McDaniels…then they went out and added Brown and Romeo Doubs. With Maye entering Year 2 in McDaniels’ system and big-time upgrades at WR, I would be surprised if their PROE tendencies went down.

So, even if Brown is at the beginning of the decline, could he see enough volume to still finish as a difference maker? Brown is coming off a ‘down’ season in Philly and still finished as the WR10 in half PPR formats despite ranking 19th in YPRR among wideouts who saw 50+ targets. Entering his age-29 season, Brown still has elite target-earning potential given that he was targeted on 27% of his routes a year ago, which was tied for ninth in the NFL. He was also eighth in first-read target share, showcasing his alpha WR1 capabilities, which is good because…

When Josh McDaniels has had a legit dude at WR, he has peppered him:

• Davante Adams (2022): 1,516 yards, 14 TDs
• Brandon Marshall (2009): 1,120 yards, 10 TDs
• Randy Moss (2007): 1,493 yards, 23 TDs (lol)

Is Brown the same player he was three years ago? Probably not. Is he still a top-15ish talent in the league and going to a pass-first offense with one of the best young QBs in football? Certainly. Unless Brown falls off a cliff as a player, there is still huge upside in 2026.

New Orleans Saints

Can Tyler Shough take a step forward in Year 2?

It is safe to say Tyler Shough proved a lot of doubters wrong last year. Kellen Moore went with Spencer Rattler to start the season, and ya know, it did not go well. In Weeks 1-8 with Rattler under center as the full-time starter, the Saints averaged just 16 points per game and went 1-7. From Week 9 on with Shough, New Orleans averaged 19.8 points per game and went 5-4.

For fantasy, Shough was a nice add off the waiver wire, averaging 17.1 points per game as a starter. He also flashed some ceiling down the stretch with 21.3, 21.9, and 21.8 fantasy points against the Bucs, Titans, and Falcons. From an efficiency standpoint as a passer, Shough ranked 13th in YPA and 10th in completion rate among QBs who played 8+ games. Those numbers are serviceable, but when you go under the hood further, question marks remain…

Shough was 19th in passer rating, 25th in ANY/A, and he had the fifth-worst pressure-to-sack ratio. He was also tied for 24th in fantasy points per dropback. Those numbers obviously leave a lot to be desired. Looking ahead to 2026, there are reasons for optimism that things could improve in those categories:

• New Orleans added a great WR prospect eighth overall in Jordyn Tyson
• Travis Etienne has been a capable and explosive pass catcher out of the backfield
• The Saints OL should be improved relative to last year. They check in at 16th in Warren Sharp’s preseason ranking.
• New Orleans has the second-easiest strength of schedule in the NFL

But let’s paint the downside case here. We have seen rookie QBs flash then regress in their sophomore season. Is it at least possible Shough doesn’t progress? After all, he is already entering his age-27 season, so perhaps there isn’t as much upside to progress year over year.

I want pieces of this Saints offense given Kellen Moore‘s pace of play, and ultimately, I do think the pace here could help Shough’s fantasy outlook even if he doesn’t level up. We know plays per game and pace matter in fantasy, and Shough does have that special sauce that we are looking for in late-round QBs. In his nine starts, he had a 17-game pace of 79/329/6 as a rusher. If the Saints continue to play fast and Shough’s mobility is used as a weapon, he could be a great late-round QB selection. Mike is particularly bullish on him this season, but I at least want to highlight that there’s probably more fragility here than we might think. The Saints are currently 24th in average team total, which is quietly just behind the Steelers and the Giants and barely ahead of the Titans and Falcons. And while this is not a perfect way to look at fantasy future fantasy production, it is worth pointing out that Bryce Young has a higher pass TD prop line than Mr. Shough.

New York Giants

Where are Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo at in their recovery?

The Giants have two major injury question marks entering camp as their WR1 and RB1 are both coming off significant season-ending injuries from a year ago. Nabers tore his ACL and meniscus in Week 4 against the Chargers, and the recovery thus far has been slow with some bumps in the road. He had surgery in October to reconstruct the ACL and repair the meniscus and was seen on crutches in January. Then, in the spring, Nabers had a second procedure done to help relieve stiffness in the knee and regain range of motion. This can happen with some athletes needing meniscus repair, so it is not exactly an extremely unique case, but nonetheless, it’s obviously not ideal. Given the multiple procedures and the lengthy spring rehab, it would be foolish to expect the Giants’ franchise player to hit the ground running in training camp, let alone Week 1. I wrote more details about Nabers’ recovery in the UDK Injury Report, but my TLDR take here: We should expect Nabers to be limited during the entirety of camp and likely start the season on PUP. From there, he will probably need another few weeks to ramp up until he’s playable in fantasy. Is that Week 6? Week 8? Week 10? We need to track Nabers’ recovery in training camp in order to get those answers.

As for Skattebo, he is coming off an ankle fracture + dislocation in late October and had immediate surgery to reconstruct the ankle, as this was an open fracture and thus required immediate medical attention. So far, Skatt’s recovery has gone according to plan, allowing him to participate in a limited capacity during OTAs and mini camp. My hope is that he will be cleared early in training camp, allowing him to ramp up his volume and participation ahead of Week 1. We have seen other skill players suffer similar injuries (Tony Pollard, Chris Godwin, Mark Andrews, etc.) and take some time to regain their form. I have minimal concern that Skattebo will be available to start the season, but I do wonder how close to 100% he is entering Week 1. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him take a few weeks to regain his explosiveness and tackle-breaking ability.

New York Jets

Can Geno Smith support Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall for fantasy?

Outside of G Willy and Breece, there is not much to be excited about in New York when it comes to a redraft fantasy football perspective. Entering late July, Breece Hall (RB15) and Garrett Wilson (WR17) are being drafted in the third and fourth round, respectively. Relative to their talent profile, is the ‘stink’ of the Jets already baked into ADP, and can Geno Smith help these guys outperform expectations?

Simply put, Geno was a disaster a season ago. Among 38 qualified QBs, Smith ranked:

• 25th in YPA
• 33rd in Passer Rating
• 35th in ANY/A
• Dead last in INTs (17)
• Dead last in Pressure-to-Sack Ratio

Obviously, a lot of that was a bottom-tier offensive line, a completely unserious coaching staff, and Bowers getting injured, but the point remains: it’s fair to question if Geno is on his last legs in the NFL. He is now 36 years old in October and only under contract for one year with the Jets as they have their eyes set on the 2027 rookie class.

From a top-down perspective, it is tough to paint an optimistic picture with the Jets in 2026. Their win total sits at just 5.5, they are favored in just four games this year, and only the Cardinals have a lower average implied team total than Gang Green. They also have Aaron Glenn at HC and Frank Reich at OC.

Now 64 years old, Reich is the oldest OC in the NFL. For context, the average age of the other 31 offensive coordinators is 41 years old. It is tough to teach an old dog new tricks…Uncle Frank has registered the lowest motion rate on dropbacks of any play caller in the league. We know that motion and play action are a cheat code for boosting efficiency in the pass game. If Reich sticks to his ways, it is really tough to see Geno bouncing back in a meaningful way. There is real bench risk if Geno does bottom out, and the Jets want to get a look at fourth-round rookie Cade Klubnik down the stretch.

Granted, we have seen Breece and Wilson succeed for fantasy, despite poor QB play around them. Side note – can we please get Wilson a real QB at some point before he leaves his prime? G Willy has played four years in the league, and in those games, he has logged target shares of 25%, 30%, 26% and 34%. Elite. He will see enough volume to get home in PPR leagues, but I do have major concerns about league-winning potential in half PPR formats given that a) he only has 11 total red zone TDs through four years. b) Geno/Cade Klubnik are playing QB, and c) Frank Reich is the OC.

The same could be said for Breece, who is quietly coming off a season where he had over 1,400 scrimmage yards. One thing to monitor here is that we saw his receiving numbers take a bit of a dip in 2025. In his first three seasons, he averaged four receptions per game. Last year, that came down to 2.3 catches per game. I do think Breece will still have a solid role in the pass game, but the Jets obviously have Wilson, traded for AD Mitchell last year and double-dipped in the first round with Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. Like Garrett Wilson, I think Breece is probably in for a solid RB2 season, but with the TD expectation so low, it’s hard to see Breece being a guy you had to have in 2026. Worth noting, we also have Glenn out here talking up a 3-man RBBC for the second year in a row. I’m usually brushing that fluff off pretty easily, especially after Hall signed that massive extension, but given that Glenn seems to do some suboptimal things, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis steal some touches.

Philadelphia Eagles

Can DeVonta Smith be a true WR1 with A.J. Brown now in New England?

It was a great run for ‘Swole Batman’ and ‘Skinny Batman’ in Philly, but in 2026, there is a massive opportunity up for grabs with A.J. Brown now a Patriot. For context, over the last four years, Brown has commanded target shares of 29%, 30%, 34%, and 30%, while seeing air yards shares of 49%, 41.9%, 50%, and 37.7%. Sheesh! It’s really tough to just replace a guy like Brown, who has been one of the best WRs in the league over the last ~ decade. So, what will the Eagles do? Of course, they drafted Makai Lemon in the first round of the NFL Draft, traded for Dontayvion Wicks, and signed Hollywood Brown, but those guys clearly are not in the same conversation as AJB.

With Sean Mannion now in town as the OC and play caller, there is plenty of uncertainty in terms of this new scheme. He comes over from the Packers, so reasonably, there should be some LaFleur/Shanahan concepts, but he has never called plays in the NFL, so admittedly, we are all just trying to make educated guesses when it comes to Mannion’s offense in 2026. We could probably do an entire podcast and article on the Shanahan, McVay, and LaFleur schemes, but the TLDR is that we are likely to see a big jump in motion rates and play action.

In 2025 under Kevin Patullo, the Eagles were 28th in motion rate and 25th in play action rate. Those numbers should be much higher in 2026, which should help Jalen Hurts boost his efficiency compared to a down 2025 season as a passer. There is also some rumblings of more under-center formations with this new scheme, and while the sample sizes are small, Hurts has seen a huge boost in his efficiency when throwing from under center and when using play action:

Jalen Hurts had just 45 total dropbacks from under center in 2025 and 39 in 2024, but when he did, his YPA jumped in a big way:

• 2025: 8.3 YPA
• 2024: 7.9 YPA

Similarly, when using play action, Hurts’ numbers were much better (this is generally the case for most QBs):

• 2025: 7.4 YPA
• 2024: 8.9 YPA

If this new scheme can help Hurts bounce back as a passer, could DeVonta Smith be a huge beneficiary? It is a small sample size, but in four career games without AJB from 2022 to 2025, including playoffs and excluding Week 18 where starters didn’t play full snaps, Smitty’s stat lines are:

• 8/148/0 on 12 targets
• 7/76/1 on 10 targets
• 7/79/0 on 10 targets (left early with a concussion)
• 6/84/0 on 9 targets

His target share in those games climbs to north of 35%, and he averages 2.69 yards per route run without Brown on the field. Again, this sample size is pretty small, but if we do the simple exercise of talent + opportunity + efficiency spike from the scheme, there is a good chance Smith is being undervalued at his current WR23 price over on Sleeper in full PPR formats.

Pittsburgh Steelers

How will the offense operate with Mike McCarthy calling plays?

It is wild that I am even typing this sentence, but for the first time in forever, Mike Tomlin is no longer on the sidelines in Pittsburgh. With Tomlin’s departure, the Steelers also moved on from OC Arthur Smith. It is no secret what Artie loves as a player: Running the damn ball and featuring four different TEs. In 2024 with Justin Fields and Russell Wilson under center, we saw Arthur do Arthur things, handing off at the league’s fourth-highest rate. However, with Aaron Rodgers “playing QB” in 2025, we actually saw Mr. Darkness Retreat have his way with the Steelers, ranking 10th in pass rate over expectation. I have seen this narrative out there that the Steelers will be more pass-heavy this season, but I think some context is needed.

In 2025 with Rodgers, the Steelers were already seventh in neutral pass rate. Despite this, A-Aron only averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game. The problem? Pace of play. Even going back to his prime Packers years, Rodgers has always preferred to play slowly. He gets to the line, surveys the defense, and then audibles or checks into a different play and snaps the ball as the play clock is expiring. Pittsburgh was 28th in plays per game and 28th in seconds per play.

Mike McCarthy had some fast offenses in Dallas, but there is a good chance that was more Dak Prescott than McCarthy, who, of course, has familiarity with and trust in Rodgers going back to their Green Bay days. McCarthy’s offenses have almost always trended pass-first, and if you follow the team’s moves this offseason, we should once again expect the Steelers to remain pass-first with McCarthy and Rodgers pulling the strings. The team traded for and signed Michael Pittman to an extension, tried to draft Makai Lemon and then ultimately settled for Germie Bernard in Round 2. We are likely to see more 3WR sets in 2026 as the team invested significant capital in the WR position.

So, yes. We should see the Steelers be among the league leaders in PROE again this season, but what is that worth with a 42-year-old Cowboy playing QB? Last season among qualified passers, Rodgers ranked:

• 30th in YPA
• 37th in average depth of target
• 28th fantasy points per dropback
• 30th in EPA per play

I do think we will get some pass volume here, but for it to be meaningful for fantasy, we either need a) Rodgers to all of a sudden rebound in the efficiency metrics and/or b) pick up the pace. Expecting either or both of those things to happen is probably fool’s gold. Fortunately, the ADP for the Steelers’ main weapons are all depressed across the board, so the market is already baking in the downside case.

San Francisco 49ers

How healthy is George Kittle?

Kittle dealt with plenty of injuries in 2025. He injured his hamstring in Week 1, then spent five weeks on IR. In Week 16, he injured his ankle and missed Week 17. Finally, in the NFL playoffs, he tore his Achilles in his right leg against the Eagles and underwent surgery on January 14 of this year. By all accounts, his rehab has gone well, and he was even doing some very light agilities at ‘TE University’ in late June, so it is certainly possible that he participates in training camp and is cleared for Week 1. But what does that mean? Is he 75%? 80%? When will he be 100% relative to his pre-injury level of play?

Kittle has been one of the most efficient TEs in football since becoming a full-time player. He has averaged at least 1.80 YPRR in eight straight seasons, but now there are question marks. He will be 33 years old later this year, and he is coming off an injury-riddled 2025 campaign that ended in a significant injury that usually zaps skill position players’ explosive ability in the short term. I wrote in more detail about Kittle’s recovery in the UDK Injury Report if you are looking for more details on there.

At his reduced draft cost, there is league-winning potential if Kittle can beat the trends. On average, Kittle is the TE9 off the board, which is enticing given the volatile nature of the TE position in general, and in best ball contests where the money is all back-weighted for the final few weeks, I do not mind taking some swings in the 10th round. That said, for an older player who is relied on efficiency throughout his career, it is a bit of an uphill battle. Outliers do exist, so we need to be open-minded about the possibility that Kittle can perform in 2026, but it’s a tricky situation given that he is coming off career-low marks in yards after contact per reception and average depth of target. I will be monitoring Kittle’s training camp closely ahead of Week 1.

Seattle Seahawks

Where is Zach Charbonet at in his ACL recovery?

With Kenneth Walker vacating 257 total opportunities for the Super Bowl champs, there is obviously plenty of opportunity up for grabs in this Seattle backfield. Naturally, the incumbent Zach Charbonnet would be in line to inherit most of that work, but of course, he is coming off a late-season ACL injury. Charbs didn’t have surgery on his knee until February 20, so it is highly unlikely he’s anywhere close to 100% entering the season. In fact, it is far more likely that Charbonnet begins the season on PUP given that mid-August will only be seven months removed from surgery. Regardless, even if Charbs can get cleared in the first few weeks, we know it takes roughly a month for backs to ramp up to game speed. With Walker gone and Charbonnet unlikely to command a full workload early on, where could the touches go in this backfield?

Naturally, most would point to the 32nd overall pick in the draft, Jadarian Price, but there have been multiple beat reporters suggesting that the Seahawks do not want to overload the rookie with touches right away out of the gate. Of course, that is more opinion than fact, but the possibility does exist that this is more of a committee than we would prefer until Charbs is healthy. Price is a bit of an enigma as a prospect due to the fact that he shared the backfield with stud muffin Jeremiyah Love. Because of that, Price never handled more than 120 carries in a college season, and as a pass catcher, he only caught 15 total passes from 2023 to 2025. Is that a skill set issue? A Jeremiyah Love issue? Some of both? Who knows, but obviously, that production profile leaves a lot to be desired.

Behind Charbonnet and Price, the Seahawks do have George Holani on the roster, and they signed former Packer Emanuel Wilson for depth. Unfortunately, both guys are former UDFAs without a proven track record of production in the NFL, so it would take a pretty big leap of faith to suggest that one of those guys is going to dominate backfield touches. Ultimately, this could be a frustrating RBBC for most of the season, but for what it’s worth, Holani was taking reps over Wilson earlier in the offseason program. Ultimately, the fantasy value of this backfield will likely be determined by Price’s ability to “win” the job in camp and Charbonnet’s recovery timeline.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What will Emeka Egbuka‘s role look like without Mike Evans?

I could have certainly gone with the RB uncertainty here for this question, but to me, the most intriguing piece of this Bucs offense is second-year WR Emeka Egbuka and how he will fit in this new scheme sans Mike Evans. Before diving into the role change, let’s first recap Egbuka’s rookie year. Over the first month and a half, he was unbelievable, and if you had him on your squad, you felt like you struck gold. From Weeks 1-5, the Ohio State product averaged 18 fantasy points per game, which was obviously an unsustainable rate. After Week 6, things came crashing back to Earth with Egbuka averaging just 6.2 PPG.

He played through a hamstring injury, the Bucs’ O-line was banged up, and Baker himself was dealing with some nagging injuries. It led to a frustrating couple of months for Mr. Eg-Big-Boo, and because of these drastic splits, it is fair to question what we should expect from the second-year wideout in 2026. Naturally, he is a bit of an enigma given these splits, but if we just zoom out and look at his peripherals on the totality of the season, there is a reason to be optimistic about Egbuka in Year 2 as he checks these boxes:

• First round NFL Draft capital
• 1.75 YPRR as a rookie
• Due for positive regression after registering a 42% catch rate from Week 7 on
• Opportunity up for grabs with Evans now out the door and Chris Godwin another year older

In addition to the player-level analysis, it would also be beneficial to dive into new OC Zac Robinson’s scheme. In 2025, Robinson’s Falcons ranked second in the NFL in motion rate behind only Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins. We’ve seen Drake London used creatively and moved all over the formation, helping give him a more diverse route tree and some of those easier ‘layup’ throws. In addition, Robinson was in LA during Cooper Kupp‘s breakout seasons, and ironically, he himself made some Kupp comps earlier this offseason. Is it reasonable to expect Egbuka to be featured in that type of role this season? Matt Harmon from Reception Perception certainly thinks so…

…And logically, it just makes sense to feature this type of player in your offense. Chris Godwin is now 30 years old and coming off another injury-riddled campaign; Jalen McMillan is a fine secondary option but not really a volume/WR1 type of player; and Ted Hurst is a third-round developmental X receiver out of Georgia State. Furthermore, the Bucs decided to bring in a pass-catching RB archetype in Kenny Gainwell, potentially signaling a more pass-heavy approach in 2026.

If they do trend pass-heavy, and Robinson brings in this motion-heavy scheme, Baker Mayfield should benefit while Egbuka has significant upside at cost. I do not want to overthink it on a Year 2 WR who flashed as a rookie. If he had gotten off to a slow start and then had a massive stretch to end the season, there’s a good chance we would be thinking about Egbuka a lot differently entering 2026. Currently coming off the board in the fifth round on Sleeper, ESPN, and Yahoo!, he is a strong bet in the middle rounds if this scheme fit comes to fruition.

Tennessee Titans

Will Brian Daboll unlock Cam Ward for a Year 2 leap?

Let’s get this out of the way off the rip – Cam Ward was #bad as a rookie. Among 37 QBs who logged 200+ plays in 2025, he ranked:

• 36th in EPA per play
• 36th in Success Rate
• 36th in YPA
• 33rd in Completion Percentage over Expected
• 37th in Fantasy Points per Dropback

So yeah, not great, Bob! The 2025 Titans were a hot mess. Brian Callahan was fired quickly, interim HC Mike McCoy had the NFL pass him by years ago, and the skill position players were among the worst in football, especially at pass catcher. Fast forward one year, and there is a brand new regime in town with some upgraded weapons with Cam Ward and WanDale Robinson. So, for fantasy, can Brian Daboll help get the best out of Ward in his sophomore season?

To Brian Daboll’s credit, he has gotten good-to-great QB play out of his signal-caller no matter where he’s been. At Alabama in 2017, we saw Jalen Hurts find success; from 2018 to 2021, we saw Josh Allen break out and become one of the best QBs in the league; and from 2022 to 2025, we saw Daniel Jones elevate his game with Jaxson Dart looking great as a rookie. Now, to be fair, a lot of this discussion is a “the chicken or the egg?” type of thinking. Still, the point remains: Daboll’s QBs have performed, especially for fantasy.

As a head coach, Daboll’s time soured somewhat quickly, but as a play caller, there are some things to like about this scheme. From 2023 to 2025, Daboll’s Giants ranked in the top half of the league in neutral pace each season, and in two of those three seasons, the Giants were top-six in neutral situation no-huddle rate. Playing with more pace can potentially help a young QB get into a rhythm. Additionally, Daboll’s offenses have always featured mobility at the QB position, which for fantasy is obviously quite useful.

Ward wasn’t a big scrambler coming out of college, and he only averaged 9.4 rushing yards per game as a rookie, but there’s some rumblings about Ward using his legs more in 2026. If he does, and if Daboll can help Ward get his career on track with better weapons, there is a chance Ward can be a fantasy sleeper, or at least support the top skill players on this depth chart.

Washington Commanders

Will the Commanders add a veteran WR?

Brandon Aiyuk. Log off, dude! The man is making some, shall we say, interesting choices on social media over the last month. Obviously, his days in San Francisco are done, so many have penciled him in as a Commander in 2026. While that is theoretically still possible, his social media antics could turn off NFL teams. So, if the Commanders do not take on Brandon Aiyuk and his baggage, do they ride it out with their current depth chart, or do they sign another veteran free agent?

As things stand, Terry McLaurin is penciled in for a ridiculous target share given the state of the depth chart. If they don’t sign a veteran, we’re talking about guys like Treylon Burks, a third-round rookie, and slot WR Antonio Williams, Dyami Brown, and Van Jefferson playing meaningful snaps. What could possibly go wrong? 2025 was a forgettable season for the Commanders as injuries just destroyed the roster en route to a frustrating slump after a magical 2024 season.

Even with everything seemingly going wrong for Washington, Terry McLaurin still averaged 2.38 YPRR despite playing through injury, losing his starting QB, and holding out all of training camp. If the Commanders don’t go in on a veteran WR, McLaurin could be a league winner this season in what should be a revamped scheme under David Blough. If the Commanders do bring in a veteran WR, who are the candidates and where are they at in their career?

• Brandon Aiyuk: 28 years old, has not played since 2024 when he tore his ACL
• Deebo Samuel: 30.4 years old, played with WAS in 2025; His yards per reception has declined in three straight seasons
• Keenan Allen: 34.2 years old, played with LAC in 2025; Earned a respectable 22.4% target share but sub 6.5 YPT in back-to-back seasons
• Stefon Diggs: 32.6 years old, played with NEP in 2025; Impressed as NE’s top target with 2.53 YPRR and just over 1,000 yards while posting his highest YPT since 2022

If any of these vets sign, the target share projection for Scary Terry will surely take a hit, but the right tail outcomes remain intact for Jayden Daniels‘ WR1. If they do not sign a vet, McLaurin is an obvious draft target in the middle rounds, while free agent signee TE Chig Okonkwo is an intriguing later-round TE target.